Summaries
Summaries
7–46
El
para
Miguel
de
Peril
China’s
Peaking
Próximo
Decade
Beckley,
Tufts
Universidad
Powers:
Económico
Slowdowns
y
Implications
tomado
arriba
a
Si
eso
puzzle:
disrupt
económico
powers
mayoría
el
equipado
growth
su
rise.
tener
rising
estado
growth
protracted
rekindle
present,
a
el
violent
existing
rising
revisionism
orden,
tener
a
él
desacelerando
powers
poses
would
es
significado
why
reason
ancient
veces
world.
De
el
proªting
reckless
pasado
150
booms
de
medio
vated
dinámica
modern
siglo,
Ucrania.
tener
tener
country.
a
a ellos
Todavía
de
de
ªt
años,
semejante
el
expansion?
peaking
pero
extended
arriba
el
move
explain
incluido
slowed
Un
shake
a
ayuda
historia,
el
Estos
outbreak
de
ªndings
implications
ominous
Uno
powers,
todavía
período
no
world,
y
aggressively
stopped,
rapid
a
a
de
entonces
intentar
a
mayoría
de
el
de
surge
Guerra
II,
classic
alguno
el
Mundo
amend
para
consequential
imperialism
Russia’s
A NOSOTROS.
y
teorías
geopolitical
en
2014
great
el
late
agresión
fuerza
conºict
de
Chino
contemporary
foreign
política.
brazos
rising
progress
growth.
cuyo
dangerous
con
a ellos
slowdown
Peaking
a
fuerza
con
reorder
es
a
Encima
el
económico
kind
el
moti-
fuerza
events
en
nineteenth
against
y
47–90
El
Internacional
Jost,
tyler
Crises
Marrón
Universidad
Institutional
Origins
de
Miscalculation
en
China’s
en
ºow
international
crises?
National
de
información
entre
a
a
el
este
miscalculate
shaping
y
teórico
prone
normas
defense,
Porcelana
es
Cuando
institutions—the
su
diplomatic,
respuesta
institutional
reduce
crático
entre
provide.
logical
eaucratic
pregunta.
types:
de
información
A
integrado,
miscalculation
a
bureaucracies
contrast,
institutions.
el
eso
leader,
miscalculation
Fragmented
líderes
y
mejora
es
información
riesgo
el
En
a
intelligence
bureaucracies—offer
differentiates
estructura
fragmented,
por
ambos
Integrado
siloed.
y
capacity
a
building
a
competitive
de
bajo
fostering
quality
likely
por
el
más
información
types
two
a
capacity
a
bureaucrats
institutions
y
encourage
reduce
líderes
uno
entre
seguridad
y
important
tres
institutions
bureau-
relay
ser-
dialogue
ellos
eso
patho-
de
bur-
relay
manipulate
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Seguridad Internacional 48:1 4
information to conform with the leader’s prior beliefs. Siloed institutions re-
strict information sharing between bureaucracies, which degrades the evalu-
ation of information and encourages bureaucracies to manipulate information
to suit their organizational interests. A medium-N analysis of China’s interna-
tional security crises from 1949 a 2012 demonstrates that national security in-
stitutions help to explain the majority of its crisis miscalculations. Case studies
sobre el 1962 Nationalist invasion scare, el 1969 Sino-Soviet border conºict,
y el 2001 EP-3 reconnaissance aircraft incident illustrate the mechanisms
by which national security institutions shape the risk of miscalculation in
international crises.
91–124
Collective Resilience: Deterring China’s Weaponization of
Economic Interdependence
Victor D. Cha, Georgetown University
Since the 2010s, China has used economic coercion against Western and Asian
states to achieve territorial and political goals. China’s leveraging of its market
is a form of “predatory liberalism” that weaponizes the networks of inter-
dependence created by globalization. The United States and other like-minded
partners have mostly used piecemeal “de-risking” measures such as decoup-
ling, supply chain resilience, reshoring, and trade diversion to reduce depend-
ence on China and thereby minimize vulnerability to its economic coercion.
But these practices do not stop the Chinese government’s economic bullying.
“Collective resilience” is a peer competition strategy designed to deter the
Xi Jinping regime’s economic predation. What informs this strategy is the un-
derstanding that interdependence, even asymmetric interdependence, es un
two-way street. Original trade data show that the previous and current targets
of economic coercion by the Xi Jinping regime export over $46.6 billion
worth of goods to China on which it is more than 70 percent dependent as a
proportion of its total imports of those goods. These target states could band
together in a collective resilience alliance and practice economic deterrence by
promising to retaliate against China’s high-dependence trade should Beijing
act against any one of the alliance members.
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Summaries 5
125–165
Words Matter: The Effect of Moral Language on
International Bargaining
Abigail S. Correo, University of Pittsburgh
How does moral language affect international bargaining? When countries
rely on moral language to frame a disputed issue, they decrease the probability
of peaceful compromise and increase the probability of the dispute escalating
with military action. This language operates through two pathways. Primero,
moral language prejudices domestic audiences against compromise over the
disputed issue, thereby limiting the options available to negotiators during
bargaining. Segundo, moral language prompts the dispute opponent to also uti-
lize moral arguments to defend its position. The ensuing moral debate moral-
izes both sets of domestic audiences, consequently reducing opportunities for
compromise and narrowing the bargaining range. Negotiated concessions
then frustrate the bargaining opponent and elicit accusations of hypocrisy
from domestic audiences for compromising on the principle at stake. Este
backlash triggers crises and pressures the government to stand ªrm on its pre-
viously principled (and uncompromising) posición, increasing the probability
of military escalation. An examination of the effects of moral language on ne-
gotiation breakdown and dispute escalation in the Falkland Islands/Islas
Malvinas case probes the theory. The ªndings illustrate how moral language
can shape a government’s behavior far into the future, constraining its ability
to broker a peaceful compromise.
166–207
Bargaining with the Military: How Presidents Manage the Political
Costs of Civilian Control
Andrew Payne, Universidad de Oxford
In an era of increased politicization of the military, there are powerful disin-
centives for commanders-in-chief to challenge the preferences of the senior
military leadership. Even though presidents may have the constitutional
“right to be wrong,” they require considerable political capital to test that
proposition. Dominant normative theories of civil-military relations focus on
ideal-type scenarios that do not reºect the messy, inherently political character
of elite decision-making. A case study of civil-military dynamics during the
Iraq War identiªes four decision-making strategies that George W. Bush and
Barack Obama used to avoid incurring a domestic political penalty for being
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Seguridad Internacional 48:1 6
seen to go against the preferences of the uniformed military. Drawing on de-
classiªed documents and dozens of interviews with former administration
ofªcials and top-ranking military leaders, the ªndings indicate that both ad-
ministrations used these strategies during key episodes of civil-military fric-
tion in the Iraq War (el 2007 surge and the troop drawdown that followed).
Scholars and practitioners should focus on strengthening civilian and mili-
tary leaders’ capacity to navigate the politics of national security decision-
making and reconsidering conventional understandings of the apolitical role
of the military.
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