Summaries
Summaries
7–46
The
for
Michael
of
Peril
China’s
Peaking
Next
Decade
Beckley,
Tufts
University
Powers:
Economic
Slowdowns
and
Implications
taken
up
a
If
that
puzzle:
disrupt
economic
powers
most
the
equipped
growth
their
rise.
have
rising
been
growth
protracted
rekindle
present,
to
the
violent
existing
rising
revisionism
order,
have
a
it
slowing
powers
poses
would
is
meaning
why
reason
ancient
times
world.
From
the
proªting
reckless
past
150
booms
of
means
vated
dynamics
modern
century,
Ukraine.
have
have
country.
to
them
Yet
from
of
ªt
years,
such
the
expansion?
peaking
but
extended
up
the
move
explain
including
slowed
An
shake
to
help
history,
the
These
outbreak
of
ªndings
implications
ominous
One
powers,
yet
period
not
world,
and
aggressively
stopped,
rapid
a
to
of
then
try
to
most
of
the
of
surge
War
II,
classic
some
the
World
amend
for
consequential
imperialism
Russia’s
U.S.
and
theories
geopolitical
in
2014
great
the
late
aggression
power
conºict
of
Chinese
contemporary
foreign
policy.
arms
rising
progress
growth.
whose
dangerous
with
them
slowdown
Peaking
to
power
with
reorder
is
a
Over
the
economic
kind
the
moti-
power
events
in
nineteenth
against
and
47–90
The
International
Jost,
Tyler
Crises
Brown
University
Institutional
Origins
of
Miscalculation
in
China’s
in
ºow
international
crises?
National
of
information
between
to
to
the
this
miscalculate
shaping
and
theoretical
prone
rules
defense,
China
is
When
institutions—the
their
diplomatic,
answer
institutional
reduce
cratic
tween
provide.
logical
eaucratic
question.
types:
of
information
A
integrated,
miscalculation
to
bureaucracies
contrast,
institutions.
the
that
leader,
miscalculation
Fragmented
leaders
and
improves
is
information
risk
the
In
to
intelligence
bureaucracies—offer
differentiates
framework
fragmented,
by
both
Integrated
siloed.
and
capacity
to
building
a
competitive
of
under
fostering
quality
likely
by
the
more
information
types
two
to
capacity
to
bureaucrats
institutions
and
encourage
reduce
leaders
one
between
security
and
important
three
institutions
bureau-
relay
be-
dialogue
they
that
patho-
of
bur-
relay
manipulate
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International Security 48:1 4
information to conform with the leader’s prior beliefs. Siloed institutions re-
strict information sharing between bureaucracies, which degrades the evalu-
ation of information and encourages bureaucracies to manipulate information
to suit their organizational interests. A medium-N analysis of China’s interna-
tional security crises from 1949 to 2012 demonstrates that national security in-
stitutions help to explain the majority of its crisis miscalculations. Case studies
on the 1962 Nationalist invasion scare, the 1969 Sino-Soviet border conºict,
and the 2001 EP-3 reconnaissance aircraft incident illustrate the mechanisms
by which national security institutions shape the risk of miscalculation in
international crises.
91–124
Collective Resilience: Deterring China’s Weaponization of
Economic Interdependence
Victor D. Cha, Georgetown University
Since the 2010s, China has used economic coercion against Western and Asian
states to achieve territorial and political goals. China’s leveraging of its market
is a form of “predatory liberalism” that weaponizes the networks of inter-
dependence created by globalization. The United States and other like-minded
partners have mostly used piecemeal “de-risking” measures such as decoup-
ling, supply chain resilience, reshoring, and trade diversion to reduce depend-
ence on China and thereby minimize vulnerability to its economic coercion.
But these practices do not stop the Chinese government’s economic bullying.
“Collective resilience” is a peer competition strategy designed to deter the
Xi Jinping regime’s economic predation. What informs this strategy is the un-
derstanding that interdependence, even asymmetric interdependence, is a
two-way street. Original trade data show that the previous and current targets
of economic coercion by the Xi Jinping regime export over $46.6 billion
worth of goods to China on which it is more than 70 percent dependent as a
proportion of its total imports of those goods. These target states could band
together in a collective resilience alliance and practice economic deterrence by
promising to retaliate against China’s high-dependence trade should Beijing
act against any one of the alliance members.
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Summaries 5
125–165
Words Matter: The Effect of Moral Language on
International Bargaining
Abigail S. Post, University of Pittsburgh
How does moral language affect international bargaining? When countries
rely on moral language to frame a disputed issue, they decrease the probability
of peaceful compromise and increase the probability of the dispute escalating
with military action. This language operates through two pathways. First,
moral language prejudices domestic audiences against compromise over the
disputed issue, thereby limiting the options available to negotiators during
bargaining. Second, moral language prompts the dispute opponent to also uti-
lize moral arguments to defend its position. The ensuing moral debate moral-
izes both sets of domestic audiences, consequently reducing opportunities for
compromise and narrowing the bargaining range. Negotiated concessions
then frustrate the bargaining opponent and elicit accusations of hypocrisy
from domestic audiences for compromising on the principle at stake. This
backlash triggers crises and pressures the government to stand ªrm on its pre-
viously principled (and uncompromising) position, increasing the probability
of military escalation. An examination of the effects of moral language on ne-
gotiation breakdown and dispute escalation in the Falkland Islands/Islas
Malvinas case probes the theory. The ªndings illustrate how moral language
can shape a government’s behavior far into the future, constraining its ability
to broker a peaceful compromise.
166–207
Bargaining with the Military: How Presidents Manage the Political
Costs of Civilian Control
Andrew Payne, University of Oxford
In an era of increased politicization of the military, there are powerful disin-
centives for commanders-in-chief to challenge the preferences of the senior
military leadership. Even though presidents may have the constitutional
“right to be wrong,” they require considerable political capital to test that
proposition. Dominant normative theories of civil-military relations focus on
ideal-type scenarios that do not reºect the messy, inherently political character
of elite decision-making. A case study of civil-military dynamics during the
Iraq War identiªes four decision-making strategies that George W. Bush and
Barack Obama used to avoid incurring a domestic political penalty for being
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International Security 48:1 6
seen to go against the preferences of the uniformed military. Drawing on de-
classiªed documents and dozens of interviews with former administration
ofªcials and top-ranking military leaders, the ªndings indicate that both ad-
ministrations used these strategies during key episodes of civil-military fric-
tion in the Iraq War (the 2007 surge and the troop drawdown that followed).
Scholars and practitioners should focus on strengthening civilian and mili-
tary leaders’ capacity to navigate the politics of national security decision-
making and reconsidering conventional understandings of the apolitical role
of the military.
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