Summaries
Summaries
7–46
Der
für
Michael
von
Peril
China’s
Peaking
Nächste
Decade
Beckley,
Tufts
Universität
Powers:
Economic
Slowdowns
Und
Implications
genommen
hoch
A
Wenn
Das
puzzle:
disrupt
wirtschaftlich
Befugnisse
most
Die
equipped
Wachstum
their
rise.
have
rising
been
Wachstum
protracted
rekindle
present,
Zu
Die
violent
existing
rising
revisionism
Befehl,
have
A
Es
slowing
Befugnisse
poses
würde
Ist
Bedeutung
Warum
reason
ancient
mal
Welt.
Aus
Die
proªting
reckless
Vergangenheit
150
booms
von
means
vated
Dynamik
modern
Jahrhundert,
Ukraine.
have
have
country.
Zu
ihnen
Noch
aus
von
ªt
Jahre,
solch
Die
expansion?
peaking
Aber
extended
hoch
Die
move
explain
einschließlich
slowed
Ein
shake
Zu
help
Geschichte,
Die
Diese
outbreak
von
ªndings
implications
ominous
Eins
Befugnisse,
yet
Zeitraum
nicht
Welt,
Und
aggressiv
gestoppt,
schnell
A
Zu
von
Dann
versuchen
Zu
most
von
Die
von
surge
Krieg
II,
classic
manche
Die
Welt
amend
für
consequential
imperialism
Russia’s
UNS.
Und
theories
geopolitical
In
2014
great
Die
spät
aggression
power
conºict
von
Chinese
contemporary
foreign
Politik.
arms
rising
progress
Wachstum.
whose
dangerous
mit
ihnen
slowdown
Peaking
Zu
power
mit
reorder
Ist
A
Über
Die
wirtschaftlich
kind
Die
moti-
power
Veranstaltungen
In
nineteenth
against
Und
47–90
Der
International
Jost,
Tyler
Crises
Braun
Universität
Institutional
Origins
von
Miscalculation
In
China’s
In
ºow
International
crises?
National
von
Information
zwischen
Zu
Zu
Die
Das
miscalculate
shaping
Und
theoretical
prone
rules
defense,
China
Ist
Wann
institutions—the
their
diplomatic,
Antwort
institutional
reduce
cratic
zwischen
provide.
logical
eaucratic
question.
types:
von
Information
A
integrated,
miscalculation
Zu
bureaucracies
Kontrast,
institutions.
Die
Das
leader,
miscalculation
Fragmented
Führer
Und
improves
Ist
Information
risk
Die
In
Zu
intelligence
bureaucracies—offer
differentiates
Rahmen
fragmented,
von
beide
Integrated
siloed.
Und
Kapazität
Zu
building
A
competitive
von
unter
fostering
Qualität
likely
von
Die
mehr
Information
types
zwei
Zu
Kapazität
Zu
bureaucrats
institutions
Und
encourage
reduce
Führer
eins
zwischen
security
Und
important
three
institutions
bureau-
relay
Sei-
dialogue
Sie
Das
patho-
von
bur-
relay
manipulate
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International Security 48:1 4
information to conform with the leader’s prior beliefs. Siloed institutions re-
strict information sharing between bureaucracies, which degrades the evalu-
ation of information and encourages bureaucracies to manipulate information
to suit their organizational interests. A medium-N analysis of China’s interna-
tional security crises from 1949 Zu 2012 demonstrates that national security in-
stitutions help to explain the majority of its crisis miscalculations. Case studies
on the 1962 Nationalist invasion scare, Die 1969 Sino-Soviet border conºict,
und das 2001 EP-3 reconnaissance aircraft incident illustrate the mechanisms
by which national security institutions shape the risk of miscalculation in
international crises.
91–124
Collective Resilience: Deterring China’s Weaponization of
Economic Interdependence
Victor D. Cha, Georgetown University
Since the 2010s, China has used economic coercion against Western and Asian
states to achieve territorial and political goals. China’s leveraging of its market
is a form of “predatory liberalism” that weaponizes the networks of inter-
dependence created by globalization. The United States and other like-minded
partners have mostly used piecemeal “de-risking” measures such as decoup-
ling, supply chain resilience, reshoring, and trade diversion to reduce depend-
ence on China and thereby minimize vulnerability to its economic coercion.
But these practices do not stop the Chinese government’s economic bullying.
“Collective resilience” is a peer competition strategy designed to deter the
Xi Jinping regime’s economic predation. What informs this strategy is the un-
derstanding that interdependence, even asymmetric interdependence, ist ein
two-way street. Original trade data show that the previous and current targets
of economic coercion by the Xi Jinping regime export over $46.6 Milliarde
worth of goods to China on which it is more than 70 percent dependent as a
proportion of its total imports of those goods. These target states could band
together in a collective resilience alliance and practice economic deterrence by
promising to retaliate against China’s high-dependence trade should Beijing
act against any one of the alliance members.
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Summaries 5
125–165
Words Matter: The Effect of Moral Language on
International Bargaining
Abigail S. Post, University of Pittsburgh
How does moral language affect international bargaining? When countries
rely on moral language to frame a disputed issue, they decrease the probability
of peaceful compromise and increase the probability of the dispute escalating
with military action. This language operates through two pathways. Erste,
moral language prejudices domestic audiences against compromise over the
disputed issue, thereby limiting the options available to negotiators during
bargaining. Zweite, moral language prompts the dispute opponent to also uti-
lize moral arguments to defend its position. The ensuing moral debate moral-
izes both sets of domestic audiences, consequently reducing opportunities for
compromise and narrowing the bargaining range. Negotiated concessions
then frustrate the bargaining opponent and elicit accusations of hypocrisy
from domestic audiences for compromising on the principle at stake. Das
backlash triggers crises and pressures the government to stand ªrm on its pre-
viously principled (and uncompromising) Position, increasing the probability
of military escalation. An examination of the effects of moral language on ne-
gotiation breakdown and dispute escalation in the Falkland Islands/Islas
Malvinas case probes the theory. The ªndings illustrate how moral language
can shape a government’s behavior far into the future, constraining its ability
to broker a peaceful compromise.
166–207
Bargaining with the Military: How Presidents Manage the Political
Costs of Civilian Control
Andrew Payne, Universität Oxford
In an era of increased politicization of the military, there are powerful disin-
centives for commanders-in-chief to challenge the preferences of the senior
military leadership. Even though presidents may have the constitutional
“right to be wrong,” they require considerable political capital to test that
proposition. Dominant normative theories of civil-military relations focus on
ideal-type scenarios that do not reºect the messy, inherently political character
of elite decision-making. A case study of civil-military dynamics during the
Iraq War identiªes four decision-making strategies that George W. Bush and
Barack Obama used to avoid incurring a domestic political penalty for being
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International Security 48:1 6
seen to go against the preferences of the uniformed military. Drawing on de-
classiªed documents and dozens of interviews with former administration
ofªcials and top-ranking military leaders, the ªndings indicate that both ad-
ministrations used these strategies during key episodes of civil-military fric-
tion in the Iraq War (Die 2007 surge and the troop drawdown that followed).
Scholars and practitioners should focus on strengthening civilian and mili-
tary leaders’ capacity to navigate the politics of national security decision-
making and reconsidering conventional understandings of the apolitical role
of the military.
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