Will Climate Change Cause Enormous Social - 麻省理工学院人工智能研究专业

Will Climate Change Cause Enormous Social
Costs for Poor Asian Cities?
Matthew E. Kahn∗

Climate change could signiﬁcantly reduce the quality of life for poor people in
亚洲. Extreme heat and drought, and the increased incidence of natural disasters
will pose new challenges for the urban poor and rural farmers. If farming
proﬁts decline, urbanization rates will accelerate and the social costs of rapid
urbanization could increase due to rising infectious disease rates, pollution, 和
congestion. This paper studies strategies for reducing the increased social costs
imposed on cities by climate change.

关键词: adaptation, 亚洲, 城市, climate change, 自然灾害
JEL codes: Q54, R11

我. 介绍

之间 1950 和 2014, Asia’s average urbanization rate increased from
20% to roughly 50%.1 For Asia’s poorer cities, urbanization has simultaneously
caused rising per capita incomes and increasing social costs (Tolley 1974, Glaeser
1998, Henderson 2002). Gross national product is not a sufﬁcient statistic for
measuring well-being (斯蒂格利茨, Sen, and Fitoussi 2010; Jones and Klenow 2016).
A country’s quality of life is also determined by its life expectancy, literacy rate,
and nonmarket public goods such as a clean environment.

Quality of life indicators are lower in poorer cities as residents cope with
negative externalities ranging from air and water pollution, infectious diseases,
and crime to congestion and general overcrowding in poor slums. Poor people
cannot afford high-quality goods and services, and local governments lack the
capacity to provide public goods such as clean water. Negative externalities fester.
用于比较, the infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births in Bangladesh is
31 and in Singapore it is 2.2 If richer cities have higher nonmarket quality of

∗Matthew E. Kahn: 教授, 经济系, University of Southern California. 电子邮件: kahnme@usc
.edu. I would like to thank Lauren Phillips, the participants at the Asian Development Review Conference on Urban
and Regional Development in Asia held in Seoul in July 2016, the managing editor, and an anonymous referee for
helpful comments and suggestions. The usual disclaimer applies.

1参见https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Archive/Files/studies/United%20Nations%20(1969)%20-%20Growth%20
of %20the%20World’s%20Urban%20and%20Rural%20Population,%201920-2000.pdf and https://esa.un.org/unpd
/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2014-Highlights.pdf

2参见http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.IMRT.IN

Asian Development Review, 卷. 34, 不. 2, PP. 229–248

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230 Asian Development Review

life indicators than poorer cities, then simple cross-city comparisons of per capita
income understate inequality across Asia’s cities.

Climate change risk could further exacerbate disparities in quality of life
indicators within Asia. Urbanites in Asia’s poor cities are less likely to own air
conditioners and have access to healthy food and medical care. The poor live in
lower-quality housing in geographic areas that face greater natural disaster risks.
Poor people also live in areas with higher population densities and thus are more
likely to be exposed to infectious disease such as cholera. Poor countries also have
less capacity to cope with such outbreaks and with heat waves and other natural
disasters.

This paper presents a research agenda for studying how the social costs
of climate change adaptation are evolving for poor cities and poor urbanites in
亚洲. In the ﬁrst section, I focus on the major challenges that poor urbanites
will face because of climate change, including the acceleration of urban growth
rates as poor cities experience an inﬂux of rural migrants driven to urban areas
by falling agricultural proﬁts. Farm production is sensitive to extreme temperature
and rainfall conditions. Farmers who are unable to adapt to shifting conditions will
likely move to cities for alternative sources of income. Such migration increases the
population density of slums and exacerbates the risk of infectious disease. Rapid
urban growth can overwhelm a city’s infrastructure, especially in cities with weak
public revenue collection institutions. The poor are at the greatest risk from natural
disasters both because of where they tend to live and their limited coping strategies
in the face of new risks (Kahn 2005). This discussion highlights that Asia’s poor
people and economies will bear the brunt of climate shocks. The rich have access to
higher-quality housing and medical care. Since food is a relatively small budget
item for the rich, higher food prices will not affect their purchasing power.
此外, the rich live in parts of cities that are safer and have more developed
coping strategies for natural disasters.

While Asia’s poor face major new risks because of climate change, 有
countervailing forces in play as well. With the rise of big data, governments and
individuals have greater access to real-time information about emerging threats.
Increased international ﬂows of capital have given local governments the capacity
to fund public infrastructure projects. An open question concerns the incentives for
mayors and city governments in developing countries to take costly steps to improve
the quality of life of the urban poor. Such investments will ultimately increase the
migration of rural poor to these cities. Anticipating this effect, some mayors and city
governments are discouraged from making such investments. Feler and Henderson
(2011) present evidence of this dynamic in Brazil.

Asia’s collective ability to adapt to anticipated but ambiguous new climate
risks hinges on the well-being of the urban poor. If this group can successfully
adapt to new challenges, then Asia’s overall urbanization experience is more likely
to yield long-term economic growth and improvements in living standards.

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Will Climate Change Cause Enormous Social Costs for Poor Asian Cities? 231

二. The Urban Disaster Scenario

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change continually updates its
geographic threat maps by highlighting what challenges each continent is likely
to face because of climate change.3 The extent of these challenges hinges on the
relationship between the global concentration of ambient carbon dioxide and global
temperatures (魏茨曼 2009). While there is considerable uncertainty about these
方程, research highlights that almost all models predict that parts of Asia will
face extreme heat and greater risk of natural disasters and drought (Pillai et al. 2010;
Westphal, 休斯, and Brömmelhörster 2015).

As reported in Revi (2008), some climate models predict that India’s mean
surface temperature will rise between 3.5 和 5 degrees Celsius and that mean
annual precipitation will increase between 7% 和 20%. This will be accompanied
by an increase in monsoon precipitation and a decline in precipitation in
drought-prone central India.

As climate change intensiﬁes the volatility and impacts of these shocks, 如何
will poor Asians cope? Poor urbanites will face higher food prices and increased
risk of morbidity and mortality from extreme heat and natural disaster risk (Banks,
Roy, and Hulme 2011). Both rural and urban productivity will decline, 尤其
for those activities that take place outside of an air-conditioned environment.

三、. Rural Migration to the Cities

Hundreds of millions of people live and work on farms in Asia. Worsening
episodes of drought and extreme heat will lower farmers’ earnings and could
even increase the likelihood of violence. Burke et al. (2009) argue that climate
change-induced summer heat will increase the risk of civil war in the sub-Saharan
农村. This prediction is based on estimating cross-county regressions using
data for 1960–1995 in which they study the correlates of whether a country has had
a civil war. They ﬁnd that the probability of a civil war is higher in sub-Saharan
countries when summer temperatures are warmer. One possible explanation for this
ﬁnding is that as water becomes more scarce, livestock becomes threatened and
nomadic people cross spatial boundaries in search of increasingly scarce inputs. 在
这个案例, the tragedy-of-the-commons logic predicts that violence is more likely to
emerge. Whether rural violence is also exacerbated by extreme weather conditions
in Asia remains an open question.

Agricultural research in Asia has measured the costs to farmers of prolonged
drought. 陈, 王, and Huang (2014) survey farmers in the People’s Republic
of China and ﬁnd that many are taking proactive steps to protect themselves
against drought. Speciﬁc strategies include changing agricultural production

3参见https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf

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232 Asian Development Review

inputs and adjusting seeding or harvesting dates. In the Philippines, farmers are
adapting through spatial diversiﬁcation of ﬁelds and crops, varietal diversiﬁcation,
sharecropping (as opposed to ﬁxed rental contracts), crop insurance, and weather
insurance.

Income differentials between urbanites and inhabitants of rural areas create
an incentive to urbanize.4 Climate change is likely to increase this urban premium.
Based on data from Africa, Barrios, Bertinelli, and Strobl (2006) 文档
the negative correlation between rainfall and urbanization. Some rural people
may not be able to ﬁnance the ﬁxed costs of moving. One ﬁeld experiment in
Bangladesh demonstrated that by providing subsidized transportation, rural families
sent workers to the city to earn money that was remitted back to these families
during the monsoon season (Bryan, Chowdury, and Mobarak 2014). This research
has direct implications for climate change adaptation measures because it suggests
that ﬁnancing constraints are slowing down urbanization in Asia. If these constraints
can be relaxed (either through small loans from villagers or through microﬁnance
lending), then urban migration ﬂows will accelerate. Household members who
move to the cities will remit income back to the countryside, which will help protect
farmers from income volatility associated with climate change (Townsend 1995).
As farmers urbanize, total domestic farm production declines. In countries that
have enacted domestic trade barriers to the international agricultural trade, 城市的
food prices have risen (Glaeser 2014). The resultant higher prices also slow down
the rate of rural-to-urban migration.

New migrants to a city have no incentive to internalize how their choices
affect the city, but each has an incentive to consider what his wages, 租,
employment opportunities, and quality of life will be like in each city. In Asian
countries such as Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Thailand, a large share of the urban
population lives in the largest cities. As discussed in Ades and Glaeser (1995),
in South America the capital city is home to a large share of a country’s urban
人口. If the central government offers special transfers to the capital city’s
residents, it creates an implicit subsidy to live in the megacity. Future research could
explore how migration rates to the country’s largest city are affected by political
regimes and local ﬁscal generosity.

Past research has discussed the challenges of megacity growth in least
developed countries (Henderson 2002, Hardoy and Satterwhaite 2014). 为了
例子, population growth increases population density in poorer areas of a city
and economic history research has documented the positive correlation between
infectious disease rates and local population density (Costa and Kahn 2015).
Whether this correlation has been mitigated in today’s poor urban areas in Asia

4阮, Raabe, and Grote (2015) use panel data for 2,200 households from rural Viet Nam covering the
period 2007–2010 and a tracking survey of 299 migrants from 2010. They ﬁnd that employment-related migration is
a livelihood support strategy for households exposed to agricultural and economic shocks.

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Will Climate Change Cause Enormous Social Costs for Poor Asian Cities? 233

remains an open question. Working with the authorities and civil society in poor
Asian cities to estimate the correlation between urban density and local death rates
over time would be a useful area of further study. Costa and Kahn (即将推出)
present data from the early 20th century in the United States (我们) to document
how urban sewer infrastructure investments attenuated this social cost of population
density. Given that development institutions such as the Asian Development Bank
(ADB) ﬁnance major urban infrastructure projects, reductions in urban death rates
from infectious diseases offer an important outcome variable for measuring the
social beneﬁts of urban development projects.

If sanitary conditions suffer due to rising population density, it has direct
implications for child mortality and child development in poor urban areas. In such
a setting, there is greater risk of cholera epidemics quickly spreading (Albert et al.
1993). Islam and Azad (2008) argue that the urban–rural differential in childhood
mortality rates has diminished in Bangladesh because of the reduced quality of life
in urban slums. Their study demonstrates that housing conditions and access to safe
drinking water and hygienic toilet facilities are the most important determinants of
child survival in urban areas. Research on human capital acquisition and early health
emphasizes the long-term consequences of early-life pollution exposure. Spears
and Lamba (2016) document the effects on childhood cognitive achievement of
early-life exposure to India’s Total Sanitation Campaign, which encouraged local
governments to build and promote the use of inexpensive pit latrines. They ﬁnd that
the campaign led to 6-year olds who were exposed to messaging during their ﬁrst
year being more likely to recognize letters and simple numbers.

The inability to deliver clean water to poor people is partially a function of
the actions of governments and individuals. Ashraf, Glaeser, and Ponzetto (2016)
conclude that poorer Zambians choose not to pay for a connection to water and
sewage systems since the government is unwilling to provide the subsidies needed
to ensure universal connection to the system. They argue that there is a “last
mile” externality problem of how to connect more households to water and sewage
系统. The water pollution externality festers in this setting and children’s health
is put at risk. Field experiments could test whether different subsidies to households
for connecting to water and sewage systems induces them to change their behavior.
In many Asian countries, the urban poor live on land that they do not own. 在
Bangladesh, a large percentage of Dhaka’s residents live in informal settlements and
face tenure insecurity since they live on government and private land (Ahmed 2007).
This is a primary reason for the lack of government and donor fund allocations for
communities living in these settlements. Evictions are common in this environment.
If climate change accelerates urbanization, then it is likely that even more people
will live illegally in such areas. Governments will face the question of whether they
give ownership of land to informal settlers or continue to try and clear the land.

The decisions that governments make matter both in terms of income effects
and with respect to the basic investments made by the people who live in these

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234 Asian Development Review

地区. If informal settlers expect that they will have long-term property rights to the
area where they live, then they will invest in improving it because they would be the
residual claimants on any such improvements (Field 2005).

The absence of interventions to improve living conditions in slums will
negatively affect children growing up in these neighborhoods. In the US,
Chetty, Hendren, and Katz (2016) have documented the important long-term
impacts on children of growing up in neighborhoods with higher quality of life
indicators by assessing the results of the Move to Opportunity program. 一个
extension of this research would be to implement similar Move to Opportunity
experiments in Asia’s slums to test how the role of location matters for children’s
human capital and health development. The key to such a research design is
to randomly assign households to treatment and control groups, and to collect
longitudinal data for both groups. Those in the treatment group would receive a
voucher to pay for housing that would require them to move to a neighborhood with
better quality of life indicators.

IV. Urban Income and Productivity

Climate change will increase the quantity and severity of heat waves in Asia.
A new literature is emerging on the effects of heat on worker productivity (愈合
and Park 2015). Those who work in nonair-conditioned buildings will face the
greatest exposure from rising average temperatures. Poor people face challenges
that richer people working and shopping in newer ofﬁce buildings and malls do not
脸. Davis and Gertler (2015) have documented the increased global demand for
air-conditioning, yet poor people still face budget challenges in buying and
operating them.

A promising research topic in the new empirical microeconometric research
studying how the productivity of different ﬁrms in different industries in Asia is
affected by extreme heat. Graff-Zivin and Kahn (2016) present a heterogeneous ﬁrm
模型. Each ﬁrm within an industry has its own exogenous productivity parameter.
There is a ﬁxed cost to adopting air-conditioning and an additional operating cost
for running it. Graff-Zivin and Kahn (2016) show that the most productive ﬁrms
will adopt air-conditioning and insulate their workers from heat. Since these more
productive ﬁrms produce the bulk of an industry’s output, such optimal behavior
insulates the economy. 然而, employees of the less productive ﬁrms are less
likely to enjoy the amenity and productivity beneﬁts of air-conditioning. This set
of results merits testing using geocoded microdata on the productivity of Asian
manufacturing ﬁrms over time.

A second urban productivity dimension was pointed out by Henderson,
Storeygard, and Deichmann (2017) in their study on Africa. Among urbanites in
African cities are middle men who collect agricultural output in one region and ship

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Will Climate Change Cause Enormous Social Costs for Poor Asian Cities? 235

it to another region. 所以, the productivity of many African cities is positively
correlated with nearby agricultural productivity. Such agricultural cities will suffer
a recession if climate change reduces nearby farming output. To what extent many
of Asia’s cities fall into this same category remains an open question. Asia’s cities
will play a more important role in shielding poor people from income losses due
to climate change shocks if the productivity of a city’s industries is not positively
correlated with income in the countryside.

V. Increased Natural Disaster Risk

The EM-DAT database provides information on long-term trends in deaths
from natural disasters in Asia.5 During 1970–2016, 大致 20,000 people died in
Asia on average in natural disasters each year. There were major natural disasters
在 1970, 1976, 1991, 2004, 和 2008. In the deadliest year, 1970, 关于 320,000
people died. Despite these peaks, there is not a clear upward trend in disaster deaths
over this 46-year period. During a time of rapid population and per capita income
生长, Asia has both grown richer and become more resilient in the face of natural
disasters (Kahn 2005).

之间 1990 和 2007, 682 natural disasters occurred in South Asia,
killing an estimated 400,000 people and affecting many more while causing severe
economic damage. 印度, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan were the most affected
countries in South Asia in terms of number of events. Bangladesh, 印度, 和
Pakistan suffered the most fatalities (Heltberg 2007).

Starting with the work of Kellenberg and Mobarak (2008), a recent literature
has emerged arguing that natural disaster death counts are highest in poor countries
that are urbanizing rather than in the poorest agricultural countries. The most
vulnerable countries are those that are urbanizing but not rich enough to protect
themselves through higher-quality infrastructure and housing. Rural areas are poor
but spread out and thus diversiﬁed against spatial shocks. 相比之下, poor cities
are undiversiﬁed and can suffer greatly from natural disasters. Padli and Habibullah
(2009) present additional evidence of the relationship between losses caused by
natural disasters and economic development.

Coastal areas offer great amenity value. If richer people cluster in such areas,
then the rich trade off living in a risky but beautiful place while being able to invest
in self-protection technologies such as sturdy housing. Research based on data from
India highlights that the most vulnerable people in the face of natural disasters
are residents of slums and informal settlements who are often located in the most
vulnerable locations (Revi 2008).

5参见http://www.emdat.be/

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236 Asian Development Review

Recent

research using Google Images highlights how new big data
techniques can be applied to Asia’s cities to study the resilience of different places in
the face of natural disasters. Naik et al. (2015) document that information embedded
in Google Images proxies well for a location’s income. This suggests that, 甚至
in the absence of local survey data, researchers can use these same techniques
to analyze images of the same geographic area before and after natural disasters
to provide a quantiﬁable measure of the extent of the damage and of rebuilding
努力. 在这个意义上, big data offers a new low-cost strategy for collecting targeted
data on who bears the costs of natural disasters. Another study by Masuya, Dewan,
and Corner (2015) took an inventory of all buildings in Dhaka and combined this
information with basic topography to identify the subset of buildings that face less
ﬂood risk. This subset of buildings offers potential safe havens for local residents
during times of heavy ﬂoods. Such information is crucial in assessing a city’s
resilience and planning for how to adapt to disasters.

最后, if climate change causes heat waves and drought, this will increase
the likelihood of severe ﬁres in the countryside. Much of Singapore’s air pollution
is caused by ﬁres in Indonesia. Such cross-boundary pollution represents a classic
externality. Whether neighboring Asian countries will increase their cooperation to
ﬁnd solutions to reduce the likelihood of these events remains an important policy
issue and research topic. One might argue that the richer downwind victims can
pay the upstream polluter money to encourage pollution mitigation steps. Whether
transaction costs limit these gains to trade remains an open question that will
become more important as climate change increases the quantity and severity of
these ﬁres.

六、. Government Investment in Adaptation and Population Protection

当地的
As poor people face increased risk from climate shocks, 将要
governments increase their efforts to supply public goods such as reliable water
and electricity, and safe infrastructure? For Asia’s poorest countries, 有
several related questions concerning governance. 第一的, do some mayors worry that
a consequence of protecting poor neighborhoods is that even more poor people
will move to the area? Feler and Henderson (2011) observed that mayors of some
Brazilian cities choose not to connect housing in poor areas to the water system
because they anticipate that such connections would accelerate the migration of the
poor to these areas.6 Also, can cities ﬁnance such investments?

6Revi (2008) argues that the Government of India and the country’s elite have been ambivalent about
accepting the centrality of the poor in the process of urban development and economic growth as the imperative
of delivering adequate services (水, sanitation, solid waste, drainage, 力量) and equitable access to land and
housing to the bulk of city residents is still a matter of contention.

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Will Climate Change Cause Enormous Social Costs for Poor Asian Cities? 237

VII. Macro-Quantitative Predictions of Expected Damage from Climate Change

The previous section highlighted several microeconomic scenarios focused
on how climate change impacts an economy. Facing data limitations, 大部分的
climate economics literature works with country-level panel data.

李, Villaruel, and Gaspar (2016) estimate large negative effects for climate
change-induced higher temperatures on Asia’s future economic growth. 这些
results build on the ﬁndings of Burke, Hsiang, and Miguel (2015), who estimate
a version of the following equation:

GNP Growth jt = B1 ∗ Climate jt + B2 ∗ X jt + U jt

(1)

Using data for 168 countries for 1960–2014, 李, Villaruel, and Gaspar (2016) posit
that if the world warms by 3.9 degrees Celsius by the year 2100 然后, based on the
estimate of equation (1), this will lead to per capita income losses as high as 10%
for countries in developing Asia, with India and Indonesia’s losses predicted to be
larger than the losses for the rest of the region. Such country-speciﬁc predictions
are very useful because they highlight the possible impacts of continuing under a
business-as-usual scenario. With regard to climate change mitigation investments,
the marginal beneﬁts will likely be greatest in countries where the loss of life and
economic opportunity is expected to be most impacted by climate change.

VIII. Pathways to Lower Cost Adaptation

An optimist can point to Singapore and the US as offering different pathways
through which urbanized countries of vastly different size can adapt to the climate
change challenges enumerated above. Richer Asian cities such as Singapore have
an edge in adapting because of their widespread adoption of air-conditioning and
their ability to ﬁnance expensive engineering strategies such as importing sand and
elevating ﬂood-prone structures. Those cities that can maintain and improve the
quality of life during a time of increased risk will attract more jobs and develop
higher levels of human capital.

The Menu of Cities

In the spatial economics literature, cities differ with respect to their locational
特征. Some cities feature cold winters, while others feature mountains.
Real estate prices and rents adjust across cities so that those with better quality of
life have higher rents and lower wages as compensation differential for living there
(罗森 2002). Climate change affects a city’s attributes. 例如, a city that
has enjoyed a temperate summer climate may now be much warmer during summer

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238 Asian Development Review

月. In the typical urban economics model, a city’s attributes are all common
知识. When considering the urban consequences of climate change, a city’s
future attributes should be thought of as a random vector. 例如, 我们不
know exactly what challenges Singapore will face in the year 2025 resulting from
higher temperatures and/or rising sea levels. We can form expectations of these
random variables, but we know that we do not know these future outcomes.

Facing uncertainty about how the quality of life will evolve in different cities,
the theory of option value suggests it is important that Asia’s urban poor have as
many possible destinations to move as possible. Such a menu of cities protects
individuals and creates competition. Every city and country features locations of
“higher ground” that are ostensibly more protected from the impacts of climate
改变. Advances in spatial mapping software can pinpoint such areas. If cities
change their land use patterns to allow for higher densities in such areas, 然后
adaptation is promoted.

In countries with dozens of cities, the potential to migrate to another city
creates an insurance policy protecting mobile urbanites from location-speciﬁc
shocks. Owners of real estate in these shocked cities would therefore be affected.
Those cities whose quality of life suffers due to some combination of heat waves
and rising sea levels will experience falling real estate prices and outward migration.
Anticipating this Ricardian effect provides incentives for local authorities to invest
in resilience protection in their area.

The US features hundreds of geographically spread-out cities. Within such
a system of cities, people and ﬁrms can “vote with their feet” by moving to a
new location. This competition to attract and retain skilled workers provides local
leaders and land owners with an incentive to be proactive in protecting their city
from emerging threats. Fuller and Romer (2014, 11) write about replacing the
Millennium Development Goals: “Perhaps we could replace [他们] with a single
目标: every family can choose from several cities that compete to attract them
as permanent residents.” This quote highlights a testable Tiebout hypothesis. 这
ability to move helps a population adapt by providing a menu of substitution
可能性. Is it the case that adaptation costs are lower in Asian countries that
feature more cities to choose from?

Development institutions can play a key role in helping countries identify
the geographic areas facing the least objective risk from climate change. These will
be geographic areas featuring higher ground, cooler climates, and less ﬂood risk.
A benevolent planner would allow greater housing density in these areas because
they have an adaptation edge. The housing supply literature in both India and the US
have highlighted the role that land use regulations play in limiting new development
(Glaeser, Gyourko, and Saks 2005; Bertaud and Brueckner 2005). New research on
the unintended consequences of land use regulations that inhibit climate change
adaptation would be very valuable.

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Will Climate Change Cause Enormous Social Costs for Poor Asian Cities? 239

数字 1. Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions

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来源: World Bank. World Development Indicators. http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world
-development-indicators

IX. Economic Development as an Adaptation Strategy

Economic development is a primary strategy for adapting to climate change
and urbanization fuels economic development. While economic development is
associated with rising greenhouse gas emissions (数字 1), in the absence of a
global tax on the pollution externality, each country’s best response to adapt to the
challenges of climate change is to accelerate its own economic growth. A richer
country has more resources for individuals to self-protect and for the government
to provide public goods. The urban population will also increasingly demand air-
conditioning to offset exposure to extreme heat. Over the course of the 20th century,
people in the US enjoyed a sharply reduced rate of deaths caused by extreme heat
because of the increased adoption of air-conditioning (Barreca et al. 2016). 在里面
developing world in the 21st century, the demand for air-conditioning is soaring
(Davis and Gertler 2015). If the electricity used to operate these air conditioners is
generated by fossil fuels, the increased demand will contribute to carbon emissions
and the associated adaptation challenges, though researchers are not in agreement
as to the magnitude of this effect.

The entire world faces adaptation challenges, which is fueling adaptation
创新. Just as Acemoglu and Linn (2004) argued that the expanding market
power of an aging baby boomer generation created incentives for drug companies
to target innovation for this cohort. 所以, ﬁrms can also be expected to target

240 Asian Development Review

innovation to help produce climate change adaptation products. 此外, A
growing share of Asian urbanites will be able to afford them.7 In this sense, a richer
Asia fuels greater adaptation through private goods such as more energy-efﬁcient
air-conditioning.

Given that climate change is likely to increase the incidence and risk of
ﬂooding, Asia’s urbanites will demand higher-quality housing. Richer people have
greater access to safer housing in better locations, healthier food, 运输,
and good hospitals. Such quality-of-life investments pay off in terms of survival.
As discussed above, Google Images can be used to see if a city’s resilience in the
face of natural disasters is increasing as it grows richer over time.

此外, ADB could create new household-level consumption databases
that resemble the World Bank’s Living Standards Measurement Survey. ADB has
conducted its own Living Standards Measurement Survey in Bhutan.8 Such a
survey could be used to measure household durable goods ownership, 例如
air-conditioning and refrigeration, and its electricity consumption. 理想情况下, such data
would include retrospective measures of household illness over the previous year.

Economic development and human capital acquisition go hand in hand.
Forward-looking farmers will recognize that their children will likely need to
urbanize. Becker and Lewis’ (1974) theory of fertility predicts that households
expecting to urbanize will have fewer children and invest more in human capital.
Shah and Steinberg (2013) document that, based on an opportunity cost argument,
a positive outcome of weather shocks is greater household-level educational
投资. If children cannot work in farming due to severe weather or pollution,
then it is cheaper for them to go to school. This effect will be ampliﬁed if the
parents expect that the children will move to a city that features a higher return to
cognitive skills. Embedding climate change into a Roy model of educational choice
and sectoral choice is a promising future research topic.

Anticipating the unintended consequences of location-based investments
is also necessary. Many infrastructure investments attract individuals to live in
certain geographic locations. 例如, an investment in a dam can encourage
more people to live in a ﬂood plain. Such public investment in infrastructure can
crowd out private self-protection measures as individuals move to places that are
increasingly at risk due to climate change. Boustan, Kahn, and Rhode (2012) 学习
this phenomenon in the US. Whether infrastructure investments have had this effect
in Asia is another promising research topic. Put simply, many public investments
are meant to stimulate local economic growth, but do such investments encourage
people to live in objectively riskier areas? Does public investment crowd out private
self-protection?

7参见http://www.scidev.net/global/disasters/news/amphibious-houses-ﬂoat-out-of-trouble-in-bangladesh

.html

8参见https://www.adb.org/publications/bhutan-living-standards-survey-2012

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Will Climate Change Cause Enormous Social Costs for Poor Asian Cities? 241

X. The Smartphone Era

Many Asian urbanites have cell phones and therefore real-time access to
information about emerging threats. The Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 会
have caused fewer deaths if cell phone penetration had been as high as it is
today.9 Jensen (2007) offers an optimistic vision for the role that information
technology plays in spreading real-time information. Cell phone technology allows
for both the diffusion of information and for big data ﬁrms to quickly accumulate
信息. Asian governments can work with these ﬁrms to understand more
about the geographic distribution of the population. Research analyzing the content
of social media tweets can also reveal real-time information about the concerns of
the public (Baylis 2015).

XI. Urban Political Economy of Adaptation

Given that climate change directly impacts city quality of life, one surprising
fact is that many leaders from around the world appear to devote more effort
to seeing their city become a low-carbon city rather than a resilient city. 致一个
economist, greater effort being devoted to mitigation rather than adaptation is
surprising. With the former, there is a free-rider problem. Each city only contributes
a small amount of the world’s total emissions; even if a city’s emissions are reduced
to zero, its efforts will make no real difference in mitigating climate change.
所以, self-interest should drive adaptation efforts. Climate change can be
perceived as a medium-term threat that will intensify after today’s leaders are no
longer in power. It remains an open question whether elected ofﬁcials are rewarded
for tackling medium-term challenges. If real estate markets are forward looking,
then current prices should reﬂect future threats. If a city develops a reputation for
having a declining quality of life, then it will have more trouble attracting and
retaining skilled workers. The threat of a brain drain (and lost tourism receipts)
should incentivize local leaders to act.

当地的

leaders are more likely to pursue the adaptation agenda if key
voting blocs support action on these issues. Research documenting the positive
correlation between education and the quality of governance suggests that as
educational attainment rises in Asia’s cities government will increasingly seek to
deliver on public goods (La Porta et al. 1999; Botero, Ponce, and Shleifer 2012).
One microfoundation for this ﬁnding is presented by Besley and Burgess (2002)
based on their work in India. They argue that in Indian states with higher rates
of literacy the local news does a better job investigating ofﬁcials, who are more
likely to deliver public goods since the principal–agent problem is attenuated.

9参见http://www.scidev.net/asia-paciﬁc/disasters/opinion/how-the-2004-tsunami-is-changing-disaster

-response.html

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242 Asian Development Review

If good governance and education go hand in hand, then this highlights another
payoff from human capital investments. Banerjee et al. (2011) provide additional
evidence by conducting ﬁeld experiments on ofﬁcials’ accountability and voter
behavior in India. They ﬁnd that “[v]oters demonstrated sophistication in how
they use report card information to judge performance and qualiﬁcations—they
used their knowledge on incidence of public good spending in slums to evaluate
jurisdiction-level information on public good spending by the incumbent and
used challenger qualiﬁcations as a yardstick to judge incumbent qualiﬁcations”
(Banerjee et al. 2011, 3).

Financing climate resilience investments will continue to be a major issue
in Asia. Cutler and Miller (2006) provide an optimistic example from the US. 在
the 1920s, American cities faced major infectious disease risk because of polluted
水. They document that when American cities could issue municipal bonds,
that access to capital allowed them to construct water treatment facilities that
sharply improved the local quality of life by lowering the infectious disease rate.
Development institutions can play a key role in helping cities issue municipal
bonds by providing default guarantees. Field experiments could be run in which
the interest rate that cities can borrow at is changed at random to estimate a mayor’s
demand for climate-resilient infrastructure.

Urban areas provide basic public goods such as water and electricity. 气候
change may make both increasingly scarce. Standard economic logic argues that
prices for publicly provided goods such as water and electricity should reﬂect
scarcity. If climate change induces droughts and heat waves, then prices for water
and electricity should rise as these public goods become more scarce. Politicians
often limit such pricing ﬂexibility in an attempt to protect the poor. 证据来自
the US documents that residential electricity consumers respond to critical peak
pricing by reducing their consumption (Wolak 2011). If Asia’s water and electricity
utilities are willing to allow the price of water and electricity to reﬂect scarcity,
it would help these cities adapt by encouraging the adoption of more energy- 和
water-efﬁcient appliances and practices. The beneﬁt of introducing such dynamic
pricing is that fewer power blackouts would occur in summer and scarce water
resources would be more efﬁciently allocated. Development institutions could
use incentives to encourage cities to pilot dynamic pricing and income transfer
programs so that they can afford their old energy and water bundles at new prices.

Macro Evidence of Adaptation

What will be the evidence supporting either the pessimistic or the optimistic
view that adaptation progress is taking place? Consider a new version of equation
(1) in which the effects of climate on economic growth vary over time. If extreme
heat had a large negative effect on growth in the past but this effect is shrinking
toward zero over time, then there is evidence of adaptation. In addition to studying

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Will Climate Change Cause Enormous Social Costs for Poor Asian Cities? 243

economic growth dynamics, researchers can study other macro indicators such as
annual death tolls from natural disasters. 在这种情况下, the key explanatory variable
would be the quantity and severity of disasters suffered by a country each year. 这
adaptation test would be whether the death toll from a disaster of the same type and
intensity is shrinking over time.

If a population can self-protect from emerging threats using affordable
technologies and real-time information, and if local governments can do a better
job protecting urban residents from risk, then the historical relationship between
risk and negative outcomes can be attenuated. This is a new version of the “Lucas
critique,” which argues that as governments change the rules of the game, 经济的
agents reoptimize and past relationships between consumption and income no
longer hold (Lucas 1976). In the case of climate adaptation, Mother Nature changes
the rules of the game and economic actors change their decision making to reduce
their risk exposure. Forward-looking households and ﬁrms should be making
investments to become more nimble in the face of increased exposure to heat,
drought, and climate volatility. The net effect should be that B1 in equation (1)
shrinks toward zero over time.

The Need for More Microdata

To rigorously test the claim that Asia’s poor are increasingly able to adapt
to climate change requires new longitudinal data that track a large number of
people and their well-being over time. Such geocoded data will allow a test to see
how extreme heat, pollution, and natural disasters affect different socioeconomic
groups in different countries. Key outcome indicators such as weight, 福利,
morbidity, and mortality can be tracked over time.

As new data on urbanites is needed, Google Earth and other remote sensing
technologies can be used to understand how physical places are evolving over time.
Where are new structures in a city being built? How tall are they? When natural
disasters occur, how damaged are they?

In this age of big data, it is possible to ﬁne-tune investments based on
local data to better focus on areas that are at greater risk. In Chicago, the local
government has been working with engineers and data scientists to install 500
information-gathering nodes throughout the city. By measuring data on air quality,
气候, and trafﬁc, this sensor network will provide useful real-time information.
The city will post the data in an open format to allow concerned citizens, 媒体,
and researchers to have real-time access.10 Such information holds urban leaders
accountable if clear evidence emerges that certain neighborhoods and groups of

10参见https://ci.uchicago.edu/press-releases/chicago-becomes-ﬁrst-city-launch-array-things

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244 Asian Development Review

citizens are suffering signiﬁcant reductions in their quality of life due to climate
change.11

Even if poor Asian governments do not have the capacity to collect data,
social media companies such as Facebook, 谷歌, and Twitter can track such data.
As discussed above, Google Images offers an easy tracking tool to judge whether
areas quickly recover after disasters. From an adaptation perspective, a key question
is to study whether current efforts incorporate more resilient capital so that the
next shock will cause less damage. Such data would allow for a test of whether
location-based shocks are having smaller impacts on the quality of life over time.

XII. 结论

Climate change can have enormous social costs for poor Asian cities. 这
paper has adopted a microeconomic perspective to investigate the mechanisms
at play. The megacity nightmare is congestion, pollution, 贫困, and infectious
疾病. This paper has investigated how climate change is likely to affect each
of these. The economic approach to studying climate change adaptation recasts
individuals and ﬁrms as forward looking, optimizing agents who seek to achieve
their goals in the face of new threats. 在这个设置下, climate change has direct effects
on the quality of life, the labor supply, locational choice, and household demand
for self-protection products. 很遗憾, the poor have the fewest affordable
选项.

Throughout this paper, many research designs have been discussed that could
inform policy making in the context of Asian climate change adaptation. A major
role of economic research in this context is to identify cost-effective strategies for
improving the quality of life of the poor.

This paper has focused on Asian cities’ adaptation prospects. I have not
discussed the carbon footprint of individual cities. (For an example of such
benchmarking in the People’s Republic of China, see Glaeser and Kahn 2010.)
Many of the world’s major cities are seeking to demonstrate that they are low-carbon
cities as they promote green technology, public transit, and power generated by
可再生能源.

The carbon footprint benchmarking literature raises the question of how to
create an analogous adaptation index to identify which cities are the best at adapting.
One metric would be to compare natural disaster death rates across cities. 其他
metric could be resilience: what is the loss in a city’s capital stock when a major
shock occurs? Development institutions can play a beneﬁcial role in benchmarking
these outcomes to allow for cross-city comparisons and for time series comparisons
for an individual city.

11参见http://www1.nyc.gov/311/about-311.page and http://www1.nyc.gov/311/about-311.page

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Will Climate Change Cause Enormous Social Costs for Poor Asian Cities? 245

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