Russia’s Nuclear Weapons in a - 麻省理工学院人工智能研究专业

Russia’s Nuclear Weapons in a
Multipolar World: Guarantors of
主权, Great Power Status & 更多的

Anya Loukianova Fink & Olga Oliker

At a time of technological and political change in the international security envi-
罗门特, Russia continues to view nuclear weapons as guarantors of peace and se-
curity among great powers. Nuclear weapons also assure Russia’s own great-power
status and mitigate uncertainty in an emerging multipolar order. In a world where
the United States pursues improved missile defense capabilities and appears to reject
mutual vulnerability as a stabilizing factor, Moscow views its modernized nuclear
arsenal as essential to deter Washington from a possible attack on Russia or coercive
threats against it. Some elites in Russia would like to preserve existing arms control
arrangements or negotiate new ones to mitigate a weakening infrastructure of stra-
tegic stability. 同时, 然而, they seem skeptical that the United States
is willing to compromise or deal with Russia as an equal. 同时, multilateral
arms control appears to be too complex a proposition for the time being.

T he world may be changing, but Russia’s leaders see nuclear weapons

much as their Soviet predecessors did: as guarantors of peace and securi-
ty among great powers. A modernized nuclear arsenal is critical to Mos-
cow’s effort to maintain strategic deterrence, which relies as well on capable con-
ventional weapons to ensure potential adversaries eschew aggression. Russia also
views its nuclear arsenal as a source of continuing power and influence. 作为
geostrategic context evolves, Russia wants to protect and grow its global stand-
ing and its ability to respond to emerging threats. As global power balances shift
and new technologies emerge, the ways that nuclear weapons fulfill these tasks
may change as well. But Russians expect that, 不管怎样, nuclear weap-
ons will remain important.

For the time being, Moscow sees deterrence of the United States as a primary
国家安全挑战. The Kremlin believes that Washington is unwilling to
accommodate a politically, economically, and militarily strong Russia as a fellow
great power. It also views the United States as a rule-breaker that has destabilized
世界各国. Moscow fears a potential future conflict in which the

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West seeks to coerce or destroy Russia, using all tools of national power, 包括-
ing its military.

Military threats, including from U.S. strategic conventional and nuclear ca-
能力, mean that nuclear weapons remain central to Russia’s deterrence con-
siderations, and that America is at the core of Russian nuclear planning. 俄语
concerns focus on the U.S. forces’ ability to carry out a disarming or a decapitat-
ing strike. They also extend to the possibility of U.S. and/or NATO air strikes on
critically important Russian targets, which could leave Russia with no option but
to resort to nuclear use. 同时, 我们. planners’ worst-case scenarios are of a
Russian preemptive limited nuclear strike undertaken for military advantage. 这
combination of these competing perceptions in Moscow and Washington may
create dangerous escalatory dynamics in a crisis.

This danger is heightened because long-standing U.S.-Russian cooperation to
manage nuclear threats has all but collapsed. If New START (Strategic Arms Re-
duction Treaty) is not extended before its expiration in 2021, 和美国
remains dismissive of a substantive dialogue on a broad set of strategic stability
issues with Russia, prospects for future bilateral agreements are dim. While the
emerging multipolar system may have the potential for new cooperative struc-
特雷斯, it also holds even greater threats to international security.

L ike many of their counterparts around the world, Russian foreign pol-

icy elites believe that a unipolar system centered on the United States is
evolving into a multipolar or polycentric configuration. 目前, 那个单位-
ed States remains the most powerful pole, but its relative power is declining, 和
that of others is growing. But if experts and laypeople around the world now talk
of multipolarity, it has been a thread in Russian writing and rhetoric for at least the
last twenty-five years. A decade ago, multipolarity was what Russia hoped for. 到-
天, those hopes appear to be coming true.1

According to Russian analysts and officials, the emerging order is unstable be-
cause it lacks new “rules of the game,” while the old rules are being broken or dis-
carded. But if Western analysts see the old rules as those of a “liberal internation-
al order,” Russian analysts and officials appear to be harkening back to the rules of
the post–World War II era or even the Concert of Europe. They portray the Unit-
ed States as a serial violator of those rules through the use of political, 经济的,
and military power to “pressure” states and impinge on their sovereignty. In Pres-
ident Vladimir Putin’s words, “violating rules is becoming a rule.”2

The global shift away from unipolarity has created space for Russia to reassert
itself on the world stage. Moscow has emerged as a selective defender of sover-
eignty from the Middle East to South America (albeit not when it comes to Geor-
gia or Ukraine, or presumably other countries whose sovereignty may conflict
with Russia’s perceived interests). Russia’s willingness to agree to disagree with

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代达罗斯, 美国艺术学院学报 & SciencesRussia’s Nuclear Weapons in a Multipolar World

partners has ensured that it is able to enjoy good relations with Iran, 以色列, 和
Saudi Arabia, as well as with India and Pakistan. It has sought to increase its links
to Asia and strengthen and deepen cooperation with China.3 Russian public opin-
ion surveys suggest that Russians believe that their country’s use of military force
in Ukraine and Syria and its assertiveness abroad have increased Russia’s impor-
tance in the world.4

Many Western analysts would argue that Russia openly violates rules or even
“raids” the international system.5 But even if some Russians might privately
agree, much of the political-military establishment in Russia believes that be-
cause the United States is the worst offender, anything that Russia does is turn-
关于, and thus fair play. As Russia’s Chief of the General Staff Valeriy Gerasi-
mov has stated, 我们. policies have caused Russia to “create a threat in response to
threats.”6

This negative view of American foreign policy combined with U.S. 修辞
regarding Russia has persuaded Moscow that Washington intends to weaken or
even destroy Russia’s sovereignty and statehood. Relations with the United States
and European Union countries have spiraled downward since Russia’s 2014 一个-
nexation of Crimea and military actions in Eastern Ukraine, and the resulting U.S.
and EU economic sanctions. Tensions have been further exacerbated by accusa-
tions of Russian meddling in Western elections, 包括 2016 我们. 总统-
tial election.

From a Russian perspective, all of this is treated as part and parcel of a con-
certed effort to undermine Moscow. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has
argued that U.S. political and economic pressure has pushed Russia “to the pe-
riphery of the process” in Europe, resulting in a disruption of the “European bal-
ance.”7 NATO, 反过来, is viewed as “nothing more than an instrument of U.S. 米尔-
itary policy” and an obstacle to improving Russia’s relations with Europe.8

The Russian public agrees. According to Levada Center’s independent public
opinion polling in early 2019, 大约 56 percent of Russian respondents had neg-
ative views of the United States. While these numbers had dropped to 40 百分
by November of that year, Russians are anxious about a potential conflict with the
West and express concern about their country’s international isolation.9 In focus
团体, some have reportedly argued that Russia was already in the “cold, prelim-
inary phase” of a third world war.10

I n this environment of global change and heightened threats, 核武器

play an important role in preserving Russian sovereignty and statehood, 尽管
deterring regional and large-scale conflict. At the strategic level, Russia’s nu-
clear triad, which consists of nuclear-tipped road-mobile and silo-based intercon-
tinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as well as missiles delivered by submarines and
long-range bombers, maintains mutual deterrence with the United States. 这些

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149 (2) Spring 2020Anya Loukianova Fink & Olga Oliker

forces have undergone extensive modernization over the last two decades in what
Russian officials argue is an effort to maintain parity with the U.S. nuclear arsenal
and to shed Soviet legacy systems. Both U.S. and Russian forces are bound by nu-
merical limits and tracked by both sides through an intrusive reciprocal verifica-
tion and transparency arrangement under New START. They are also observable
through national technical means, with which both sides have pledged not to in-
terfere. This verifiable balance is the cornerstone of present-day “strategic stabil-
ity” between the United States and Russia.

According to Russia’s declaratory policy, strategic nuclear forces are intend-
ed for a second strike that would inflict unacceptable damage on an aggressor.
Russia would launch this retaliatory strike when its early-warning systems have
detected an incoming strategic nuclear missile attack (otvetno-vstrechnyi udar)
or an adversary’s nuclear strikes have already taken place on Russian territory
(otvetnyi udar). As Putin articulated the Russian strategic posture in October
2018:

Only when we know for certain–and this takes a few seconds to understand–that
Russia is being attacked we will deliver a counter strike. This would be a reciprocal
counter strike. Why do I say “counter”? Because we will counter missiles flying to-
wards us by sending a missile in the direction of an aggressor. 当然, this amounts
to a global catastrophe but I would like to repeat that we cannot be the initiators of
such a catastrophe because we have no provision for a pre-emptive strike.11

Russia nurtures long-standing concerns about the vulnerability of its ability to
engage in nuclear retaliation in the face of evolving U.S. capabilities and Washing-
ton’s deployment of strategic assets worldwide. Officials and experts in Moscow
fear that the combination of U.S. 核, conventional counterforce, 迅速的-
global-strike, and missile defense, as well as space, 智力, 监视, 和
reconnaissance capabilities that would track Russia’s mobile ICBMs, could even-
tually enable the United States to carry out a disarming or decapitating first strike
on Russia, with Russia’s retaliatory strike prospectively absorbed by U.S. mis-
sile defenses. They read U.S. policy and planning as seeking nuclear superiority
或者, 更差, conventional superiority that obviates the need for the United States to
rely on nuclear weapons to defeat Russia. 在这方面, Putin has argued that the
United States is pursuing a “unilateral military advantage.”12

美国. decision to withdraw from the 1972 反弹道导弹 (ABM) Trea-
ty in 2002, coupled with the inability of the United States, 北约, and Russia to
agree on missile defense cooperation or transparency, has impacted Russian nu-
clear force requirements. While Western analysts have often discounted Russia’s
fears about U.S. missile defense, Putin’s March 2018 speech illustrated the extent
to which Russia has factored these evolutionary U.S. and allied capabilities into its
nuclear modernization. Every single one of Russia’s new ICBM systems–the Yars,

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代达罗斯, 美国艺术学院学报 & SciencesRussia’s Nuclear Weapons in a Multipolar World

the Sarmat, and the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle currently placed on the
SS-19 ICBM–are touted by officials for their ability to overcome U.S. missile de-
fense.13 Other “exotic” systems like the nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed
Burevestnik cruise missile also suggest pervasive Russian concerns about the abil-
ity to retaliate, as do continued rumors that the automated-control nuclear retal-
iatory Perimetr system, created by the Soviet Union, still exists.

O ver the last decade, Russia has focused on pursuing “strategic deter-

rence” (strategicheskoe sderzhivanie): a comprehensive political-military
approach to countering external threats and defending national securi-
ty interests. Strategic deterrence is meant to operate in peacetime and wartime. 它
relies on a spectrum of capabilities including nuclear weapons, conventional forc-
英语, and nonmilitary tools, such as information.

The “non-nuclear deterrence” portion of Russian strategic deterrence, 哪个
includes, among others, general purpose forces and precision-strike systems, 是
a point of pride for the Russian military. The 1990s saw persistent underinvest-
ment in conventional capabilities as Russia was dealing with economic instabili-
蒂, pulling back (formerly Soviet) forces stationed abroad, and engaging in exten-
sive arms control cuts and demobilization, while also responding to post-Soviet
冲突. But as funds flowed back into military coffers, a brief period of doctrinal
reliance on the nuclear arsenal to deter all threats ended in the early 2000s, falling
to arguments that threats of nuclear escalation were disproportionate and thus
incredible in crisis and conflict situations that Russia was more likely to encoun-
特尔. And while military reform was fitful, the performance of Russian armed forc-
es during the 2008 Russo-Georgian war served as a wake-up call. Although Russia
韩元, it was embarrassed by how its forces fought, and finally took steps to make
investments count.

今天, Russia is able to bring its potent precision-strike, air/missile defense,
electronic warfare, and cyber capabilities to bear against any would-be adversary.
Conventional precision-strike weapons, especially the Kalibr family of cruise mis-
siles extensively used in Russian military operations in Syria, have provided Rus-
sian military planners with previously unavailable–but long-desired–options.
They believe that these systems make it possible to use threats or inflict limited
damage to an opponent’s critically important military targets and economic and
other infrastructure, including for escalation management. Some analysts dis-
cuss the possibility of similar kinetic signaling in the space domain.14 Additional-
莱, Russia’s air/missile defense, electronic warfare, and cyber systems are intend-
ed to disorganize and deny a would-be adversary superiority in the air and infor-
mation domains, especially in the critical “initial period of war.” Most of these
capabilities have been battle-tested, 证明了, and thus arguably made cred-
ible as a deterrent.

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149 (2) Spring 2020Anya Loukianova Fink & Olga Oliker

Russian emphasis on advanced conventional systems, initially driven by fears
我们. and NATO capabilities, has evolved over the last three decades. The Russian
military closely watched the performance of U.S. precision-strike systems during
美国. offensive against Iraq during the 1991 Gulf War, and saw in it the future
of war. 美国. and NATO air strikes during the conflict in the former Yugoslavia
在 1999 led Russian planners and officials to conclude that a potential “aerospace
war” could be conducted against them as well. 自那以后, airpower has played
key roles in several interventions by the United States and its allies. 这, com-
bined with the fact that these interventions resulted in state collapse and/or on-
going civil wars, have led Russian political and military leaders to describe both
the tactics and the results as America’s modus operandi, and a prospective threat
to Russia. The experience of the Arab Spring has added fears of local social me-
dia manipulation to heighten internal instability and make a target country more
vulnerable to attack. 同时, the continued expansion of NATO infrastruc-
ture closer to Russian borders has seemingly fed into historical Russian insecuri-
ties about a lack of strategic depth.

A s evident in Russian military doctrine, “regional” and “large-scale” con-

flict scenarios in which Russia is a victim of Western aggression form a
problem set that has bedeviled Russian military planners since 1999.
When planners define their scenarios for these wars, they expect that U.S. and/
or NATO forces will carry out conventional cruise-missile strikes on critically im-
portant Russian targets, potentially with little advance warning. Among the crit-
ical targets Russia expects to be hit are those that form its nuclear deterrent: 那
是, its ability to strike back at the United States. It is not that Russia’s military an-
alytical establishment believes that Russian strategic nuclear forces are at present
truly vulnerable to a disarming U.S. conventional strike. Russia’s military mod-
elers know that such a strike would be neither quick nor easy.15 At the same time,
然而, any Western strikes on Russian military targets expected as part of a
conventional fight would threaten Russian strategic assets, including radar, early
warning, and command and control infrastructure, and weaken Russia’s ability to
carry out strategic nuclear missions.16 They could also hit Russian population cen-
ters as well as proximate hazardous facilities, with effects comparable to the use of
weapons of mass destruction.

These scenarios create the context for Vladimir Putin’s comments, cited above,
that Russia will launch its nuclear forces as soon as it is confident that it is under
攻击. Russian written declaratory nuclear policy, as outlined in the 2010 和 2014
military doctrines, states that Russia will use nuclear weapons “in response to the
use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its
盟国, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the
use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.”17

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代达罗斯, 美国艺术学院学报 & SciencesRussia’s Nuclear Weapons in a Multipolar World

In the context of an escalating conflict, 我们. strikes on Russia, whether with nucle-
ar or conventional weapons, would almost certainly be perceived as threatening
the very existence of the state.

A re there scenarios for Russian nuclear use short of a large-scale strate-

gic exchange? 俄罗斯, after all, maintains a significant arsenal of non-
strategic nuclear weapons. It includes a number of dual-capable systems,
such as the aforementioned precision-strike cruise missiles and air/missile de-
fense systems that could perform nonstrategic nuclear missions. In the wake of
the Ukraine crisis, Western analysts have pointed out statements made by Russian
officials that seem to highlight the dangers presented by Russian nuclear weap-
昂斯, and noted increased Russian exercises, potentially with nonstrategic nucle-
ar weapons.18

Russian nonstrategic nuclear weapons are a topic of extensive debate among
the Western analytical community, and even the authors of this essay diverge on
this issue. A number of prominent Western analysts, including Brad Roberts in
this volume of Dædalus, argue that Russia envisions a fruitful first-and-limited-
use of nuclear weapons, an approach they describe as an “escalate to de-escalate”
or “escalate to win” doctrine. These analysts are especially concerned about the
prospect of Russian territorial aggression against a NATO ally, followed by a limit-
ed nuclear strike to prevent the United States and its NATO allies from coming to
the ally’s rescue. They argue that the United States currently does not have limited
nuclear options that are sufficiently flexible, tailored, or survivable to deter Russia
from engaging in this behavior.19

Offensive use of nuclear weapons seems misaligned with Russia’s formal doc-
trine, which paints nuclear use as primarily a deterrent or defensive. Putin has tak-
en pains to rebut the first-use argument, including when he said in 2016: “nucle-
ar weapons are a deterrent and a factor of ensuring peace and security worldwide.
They should not be considered as a factor in any potential aggression, because it is
不可能的, and it would probably mean the end of our civilization.”20 Some an-
alysts have argued that open-source analysis of exercises with dual-capable sys-
tems offers only ambiguous evidence, because they could be performing in con-
ventional or nuclear roles.21 There is also little evidence that Russia views NATO’s
collective defense guarantees to its members as in any way incredible or that it is
willing to risk the wrath of U.S./NATO conventional and nuclear capabilities to
test these guarantees. If anything, Russia’s fear of NATO membership for Ukraine
suggests it places real faith in the alliance and its security commitments.

The prospect of Russian nonstrategic nuclear use, or nuclear use in regional de-
terrence, is deliberately shrouded in ambiguity. To make sense of it, 一些分析师
point to Russian military journals, where Russian analysts have debated the use of
nonstrategic nuclear weapons during a conflict. Some of those arguments are very

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149 (2) Spring 2020Anya Loukianova Fink & Olga Oliker

similar to the “escalate to de-escalate” strategies described by Western authors,
although they posit Russia as responding to aggression, not initiating it.

There is clearly a diversity of opinions across the Russian military-analytical
community on this issue, and there has been for some time. Russia dropped the
Soviet Union’s pledge not to use nuclear weapons first in 1993, hoping to lever-
age nuclear deterrence against a broader range of threats. In the decade that fol-
lowed, although some advocated for a greater nuclear role, other experts and of-
ficials cautioned that nuclear weapons alone could not solve all of Russia’s prob-
lems and that excessive reliance upon them was dangerous.22 The discussion of
nuclear use in Russia’s 2000 military doctrine looked a bit more like “escalate to
de-escalate”: Russia might use nuclear weapons in the event of “large-scale ag-
gression by conventional weapons in situations deemed critical to the national se-
curity of the Russian Federation.”23 Just before the 2010 doctrine was issued, Rus-
sia’s Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev promised that Russia would
not rule out preemptive nuclear strikes, including in local conflict.24 Because the
final text of the 2010 doctrine, cited above, raised rather than lowered the bar for
nuclear use, this may suggest that those arguments failed to hold sway with se-
nior civilian leaders.25 The 2014 doctrine, which added references to non-nuclear
威慑, reflected Russia’s desire, long championed by some experts, to have
something more credible and effective at hand than nuclear threats alone.26

A 2017 doctrinal document from the Russian Navy, Fundamentals of the State
Policy of the Russian Federation in the Field of Naval Operations for the Period Until
2030, is the only recent official publication that explicitly addresses nonstrate-
gic nuclear weapons. It seems to fall somewhere in between notions of preemp-
tion and the hard line drawn in the military doctrine. It states that “during the
escalation of military conflict, demonstration of readiness and determination to
employ nonstrategic nuclear weapons capabilities is an effective deterrent” and
notes that indicators of the effectiveness of state naval policy include, 之中
其他的, “the capability of the Navy to damage an enemy’s fleet at a level not low-
er than critical with the use of nonstrategic nuclear weapons; [和] the capabil-
ity of the Navy to apply naval strategic nuclear forces in any situation.”27 Argu-
干练地, critical damage to an entire enemy fleet could imply something far greater
than de-escalation.

It is also plausible that nonstrategic nuclear weapons could play an important
role in signaling in crisis. In peacetime, Russia’s nonstrategic nuclear warheads,
with the exception of some naval systems, are located in central storage.28 If Mos-
cow thinks conflict is imminent, it may signal determination by moving nonstra-
tegic nuclear warheads from central storage, as well as go through other nucle-
ar alerting sequences, including of its strategic forces (something that Russia did
not do during the Ukraine conflict). Such actions should be expected as an inte-
gral part of Russian efforts to communicate the stakes and prevent a conflict from

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代达罗斯, 美国艺术学院学报 & SciencesRussia’s Nuclear Weapons in a Multipolar World

breaking out or to curtail its progression, even as they might in themselves threat-
en crisis stability.

In short, the Russian military-analytical community may not be in agree-
ment on what their nonstrategic nuclear weapons should be for. Formal doctrine,
然而, is not “escalate to de-escalate.” The emphasis in the naval doctrine on
“demonstration of readiness and determination” may be telling, particularly in a
signaling context. It seems plausible that the main purpose of Russian nonstrate-
gic nuclear weapons is to provide the Russian political leadership with a range of
flexible options and to help them maintain an environment of ambiguity that can
buttress overall Russian deterrence.

T he Trump administration’s 2018 Nuclear Posture Review signaled to Rus-

sia that Washington still puts a premium on nuclear weapons. Russians
also read it as the United States lowering its own nuclear threshold. In Pu-
tin’s March 2018 speech, he cited a reduced U.S. nuclear threshold and explicit
discussion of limited nuclear use, contrasting that to Russian military doctrine.
He also noted that even a limited nuclear attack is a nuclear attack.

We are greatly concerned by certain provisions of the revised nuclear posture review,
which expand the opportunities for reducing and reduce the threshold for the use of
nuclear arms. . . . What is written is that this strategy can be put into action in response
to conventional arms attacks and even to a cyber-threat. I should note that our mili-
tary doctrine says Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons solely in response
to a nuclear attack, or an attack with other weapons of mass destruction against the
country or its allies, or an act of aggression against us with the use of conventional
weapons that threaten the very existence of the state. This all is very clear and specific.
像这样, I see it is my duty to announce the following. Any use of nuclear weapons
against Russia or its allies, weapons of short, medium or any range at all, will be con-
sidered as a nuclear attack on this country. Retaliation will be immediate, with all the
attendant consequences. There should be no doubt about this whatsoever. 29

这是, 所以, plausible that Russia seeks a credible capability to threaten the
use of nonstrategic nuclear weapons in an escalating regional or large-scale con-
flict because it sees the prospective escalation of that conflict as endangering Rus-
sia’s very existence. 那是, if Russia thinks war with the United States is immi-
尼特, it might signal possible nonstrategic use–not to win, but to avoid losing a
war for its survival.

然而, Russia’s capacity to signal effectively is hampered by its own past
efforts to use its nuclear arsenal coercively. Statements by various Russian offi-
cials reminding the world of Russia’s nuclear status have several times sounded
like threats, not against the United States, but against a variety of non-nuclear
countries.30 Taken together, they suggest, if not an interest in preemption, then a

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149 (2) Spring 2020Anya Loukianova Fink & Olga Oliker

willingness to use the threat of preemption to coerce. If threats such as these are
taken either too seriously or not seriously enough, they further heighten the risks
of escalation.

Does Moscow believe that it can manage nuclear escalation? Vladimir Putin
has consistently communicated that he believes escalation–horizontal or vertical
–in a military conflict with the United States and NATO could not be easily lim-
ited. Russian military planners, some of the authors in Russian military journals,
and perhaps those of the naval strategy might disagree.

Based on her readings of the military journals, one of the authors of this essay,
Fink, thinks that the Russian military may have options to engage in limited use
of nonstrategic nuclear weapons in regional and large-scale conflicts. These op-
tions would be integral to the credibility and flexibility of Russia’s strategic deter-
rence. The other author of this essay, Oliker, agrees that this is possible but sees
use of nonstrategic nuclear weapons in the scenarios described by Western ana-
lysts as divergent from overall Russian doctrine and Vladimir Putin’s own repeat-
ed statements. She therefore believes that the conditions for such use would likely
be very limited, 例如, to cases of actual or expected attacks on Russia itself.
Back in 1994, Makhmut Gareev, former deputy chief of the general staff and
the éminence grise of Russian military thought, argued that even if politicians see
nuclear weapons as purely existing to deter, planners plan for conflict and, 因此,
potentially increase the prospect of use.31 Moreover, Russian expectations that
war with the United States will soon enough be existential could be self-fulfill-
英. If U.S./NATO forces are expected to threaten Russia’s nuclear deterrent, Rus-
sia must act while it still has one. At this point, the question becomes whether
those who believe it is worth trying to manage escalation can convince the lead-
ership that, in the event of a crisis, limited nuclear use is worth attempting, or if
those who believe this will mean the end of Russia are the ones whose arguments
carry more weight. 在任一情况下, if U.S./NATO forces are intent on demonstrat-
ing resolve in what they see as regional conflict, while Russians fear an existential
attack and try to signal its repercussions, Putin’s nightmare scenarios become in-
creasingly likely.

T he 2019 death of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty

may increase the danger even further. Two experienced Russian analysts,
Sergey Rogov and retired general and former Chief of Staff of the Sovi-
et Strategic Rocket Forces Viktor Esin, both of the Institute for USA and Canada
学习, have argued that the U.S. deployment of intermediate-range weapons in
Europe would force Russia to shift its nuclear posture to preemption, for fear of a
我们. missile attack from European soil.32

的确, the demise of the INF Treaty has served as an unfortunate backdrop
for the collapse of the extensive architecture built by Moscow and Washington to

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代达罗斯, 美国艺术学院学报 & SciencesRussia’s Nuclear Weapons in a Multipolar World

reduce nuclear dangers. In the Russian military establishment, the treaty was long
unpopular: Mikhail Gorbachev agreed to it against the recommendations of his
military advisers. 自那以后, Russian complaints have centered on the fact that
other states, such as China, were not bound by the treaty, although proposals to
include China in a revised treaty are recognized as unrealistic. Reportedly, Rus-
sia even proposed to the United States mutual withdrawal from the INF in 2007.33
最近, in the face of U.S. accusations that Russia was violating the treaty,
Russian officials and scholars have spoken in favor of it.

今天, with the INF Treaty dead, Moscow is skeptical about the prospects for,
if not the value of, arms control. To be sure, Russia’s foreign policy establish-
ment still sees it as a critical mechanism for attaining strategic stability and lim-
iting U.S. strategic capabilities. 实际上, Putin’s speech in March 2018 could be un-
derstood as an invitation to arms control, even if it was not interpreted thus in
the West. But Russians do not think the U.S. commitment to the process, in ques-
tion since the U.S. withdrawal from the ABM Treaty, exists any longer. At the same
时间, the United States’ choice to withdraw from the INF Treaty has allowed Rus-
sia to claim the high ground and point to Washington as the rule-breaker, com-
pounding its “original sin” of ABM Treaty withdrawal. If talks were to occur, 这
Russians do not expect that the United States will listen to their concerns or treat
them as equals.34 Thus, Moscow pays lip service to Russia’s implementation of ex-
isting agreements, while blaming the United States for a lack of progress.

This suits some quarters well. Russia’s military establishment has been skep-
tical over the last decade about new agreements that would result in further cuts
to Russian strategic or nonstrategic nuclear weapons. Some hold that the deep-
er cuts on both sides sought by the Obama administration were intended to un-
dermine Russia’s geopolitical status or to make the world safe for U.S. 召集-
tional superiority. The inability to resolve Russia’s concerns about U.S. 导弹
defense–through either U.S./NATO-Russian cooperation or a U.S.-Russian legal
agreement–has only served to retrench these beliefs.

R ussia thus does not support additional cuts to its nuclear forces or limits

on Russian force structure. It is also not interested in deeper transparen-
赛, such as U.S.-Russian military cooperation on nuclear warhead secu-
理性, for transparency’s sake. According to experts, Moscow is willing to discuss
limits on new and emerging technologies, including the weapons Vladimir Pu-
tin described in March 2018, of which the Sarmat and Avangard missiles would
be covered by New START once deployed. There may also be room for maneuver
on other issues, if Moscow is able to negotiate gains of its own. But this would re-
quire that the topics Russia has long sought to have on the table are also subject
to negotiations. These include missile defense; prompt global strike; the inclu-
sion of “third countries,” such as the United Kingdom and France, especially if the

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149 (2) Spring 2020Anya Loukianova Fink & Olga Oliker

United States seeks further nuclear cuts; and the impact of these issues on strate-
gic stability. Some creative approaches to address Russia’s concerns are discussed
in the essay by Linton Brooks in this volume.35 As of now, the United States rejects
such a model for talks.

If an opening for negotiations were to emerge, there would be no shortage of
ideas for how to move forward. Experts have proposed deeper nuclear cuts, 方法
to integrate precision conventional weapons systems into the bilateral notions
of strategic stability, further improvement in nuclear transparency among the P5
(美国, 俄罗斯, 中国, 大不列颠, and France), and efforts to expand
confidence- and security-building and accident-prevention measures to mitigate
the risks of an accident between U.S./NATO and Russian forces. 然而, none of
these ideas has been taken up in earnest by the Russian (or the U.S.) 政府
during the last several years.

目前, Moscow’s preference is to maintain existing limits on strategic nu-
clear weapons as well as the transparency and predictability arrangements un-
der New START. Despite the preference to keep New START, Russian officials had
long expressed reservations about doing a “clean extension.” Rather, 他们寻求
formal discussion of U.S. conversion procedures for bombers and launch tubes
on submarines, fearing that the Pentagon’s plans allow the United States substan-
tial latitude to reload nuclear weapons onto platforms “converted” for conven-
tional use. While most Russian officials have been careful to say that U.S. conver-
sion plans do not constitute a violation, some have intimated that they might be.36
In December 2019, 然而, Putin stated that Russia was open to a “clean exten-
sion.” While Moscow may believe that the treaty will continue to provide for mu-
tual stability, Russia’s ability to upload additional warheads on the Sarmat ICBM
also serves as a hedge if New START, 也, goes away.

H istorically, the United States and Russia have been interested in limit-

ing the proliferation of nuclear weapons as well as the missiles that could
carry them. Russia has supported diplomatic efforts to reverse and pre-
vent proliferation, particularly those that highlighted its own role. 在此背景下,
Russia has generally opposed North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons and
supported multilateral efforts to contain its program. Russian analysts and au-
thorities view the DPRK’s nuclear doctrine as defensive, but some worry that the
country’s overall weakness could also mean that its nuclear weapons, once devel-
专栏, might actually be used.37

Moscow has also played an important role in discussions of a WMD-free zone
in the Middle East and has maintained relationships with all relevant parties in
that process. Presumably, it views the prospect of a collapse of the Joint Com-
prehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), to which it is also a party, and efforts by oth-
er countries in the Middle East to acquire nuclear weapons with some concern.

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代达罗斯, 美国艺术学院学报 & SciencesRussia’s Nuclear Weapons in a Multipolar World

As with North Korea, Moscow tends to accept that proliferators seek nuclear ca-
pability in order to attain understandable strategic and tactical goals. 因此, pre-
venting proliferation means addressing their insecurities. Russian leadership and
elites have been frustrated but not surprised by the Trump administration’s posi-
tion toward Iran as well as its efforts to destroy the JCPOA. 的确, these U.S. 波利-
cies have lent credence to the notions that Washington cannot be trusted and that
its signature on international agreements is not ironclad.

U.S.-Russian cooperation on issues that used to be above politics for both
国家, such as countering nuclear terrorism, is also moribund. 美国. 在-
titude toward political-technical cooperation with Russia in the wake of the
Ukraine crisis is one factor. But the U.S.-Russian nuclear security relationship
was already in trouble, with Russia expressing consistent concerns about equal-
ity and reciprocity.38 Russia’s ultimate opposition to the U.S.-initiated Nucle-
ar Security Summit process and Russian hostility toward U.S. positions in the
International Atomic Energy Agency have also negatively shaped the political
环境.

Other institutions of arms control and nonproliferation created by the United
States and the Soviet Union decades ago are also under threat. 我们. unwillingness
to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) has become a Rus-
sian talking point, with Lavrov and others arguing that the United States is getting
ready to resume nuclear testing.39 In turn, recent U.S. claims that Russia may it-
self be in violation of the CTBT because it has engaged in prohibited testing activ-
ities are concerning.

然而, perhaps the one issue on which the United States and Russia agree
is their opposition to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, the so-
called nuclear weapon ban treaty, as discussed in this volume by Harald Müller
and Carmen Wunderlich.40 Russia maintains that the agreement fails to account
for all issues impacting strategic stability and could damage the Treaty on the
Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.41

With arms control weakened if not dead, how great is the risk of an arms race?
Mindful of Cold War history, Russian political and military officials, 包括
Putin, Gerasimov, and Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu have emphasized to do-
mestic audiences that Russia is not engaged in an arms race, and that it is not pur-
suing unaffordable military capabilities.42 But as Russian experts have argued,
Russia’s shopping list of modernized strategic nuclear weapons and dual-use sys-
特姆斯; its long-range precision, hypersonic, and boost-glide systems; and Rus-
sia’s own development of air/missile defense is expensive, especially given Rus-
sia’s critical need to continue to strengthen its general purpose forces.43 This is-
sue deserves closer attention, especially as the United States considers deploying
missiles in Asia that were previously banned by the INF Treaty, and as it imple-
ments elements of its new strategy of great power competition and addresses

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149 (2) Spring 2020Anya Loukianova Fink & Olga Oliker

requirements set out in its 2019 Missile Defense Review. As discussed in the essay
by Christopher Chyba in this volume, these emerging technologies have the po-
tential to threaten strategic stability.44

As a multipolar world emerges, one can envision that unilateral or mutual
commitments in specific theaters may become a primary arms control mecha-
nism, rather than treaties that limit numbers. And Russia may come to favor new
bans or limits on new and emerging capabilities in time. But bilateral approach-
es to such questions will not be sufficient, and multilateral arrangements, 例如
ones proposed in the essay by James Timbie in this volume, are notoriously hard-
er to negotiate than bilateral ones.45 However, it’s not likely that Russia would be
ready for a norms-based “restraint and responsibility” regime, as proposed by
Nina Tannenwald in this volume.46

Russian security experts have talked about the importance of initiating dia-
logue with China, or perhaps dialogue that involves both the United States and
中国. This could cover strategic stability issues generally or hypersonic sys-
tems and their impact on strategic stability. Lavrov has recently stated that “the
crisis around the INF Treaty clearly shows that progress in nuclear arms reduc-
tions can no longer be sustained in the bilateral Russia-U.S. 格式. It is time that
we seriously reflect on how to launch a multilateral process on nuclear arms con-
trol based on the principle of common and indivisible security.”47 Of course, 这
statement echoes past Russian comments on multilateralizing an INF Treaty fol-
low on. And all of the problems inherent in such an effort remain.

W hile the Russian government and its more prominent experts contin-

ue to reassess the country’s role in the changing global order, 俄语
perspectives on nuclear weapons remain largely in line with those of
the past. Russia continues to view its nuclear weapons as primarily intended to de-
ter the United States. While the relationship between the United States and Rus-
sia remains openly antagonistic, there is no question that Russian officials and ex-
perts will continue to publicly discuss nuclear weapons from that perspective, 和
this will be reflected in Russian strategy.

As the international system evolves and new alignments take shape, 俄语
priorities may as well. 为了确定, Russia’s status and its ability to defend its sover-
eignty will almost certainly continue to be based in its position as a nuclear-weap-
on state. 然而, other capabilities in its statecraft toolkit–from economic
to “soft” and political–are bound to grow in importance. 同时, 核
threats from new sources may shift whom Russia seeks to deter, 以及如何. Impor-
tant factors could include the evolution of more independent European nuclear
policies as the United States steps back from the region. Russia’s relationship with
中国, whose arsenal it currently insists is not a threat, could also shift.

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代达罗斯, 美国艺术学院学报 & SciencesRussia’s Nuclear Weapons in a Multipolar World

最终, Russian foreign policy experts note that, given the history of con-
trolling weapons after World War I, arms control in a multipolar world is a com-
plicated proposition.48 Russia, like all those great powers, is in a position to seek
and build constructive pathways and solutions that help regulate the global nucle-
阿尔 (迪斯)命令. Or it can choose to do the opposite.

about the authors

Anya Loukianova Fink is a Research Analyst at CNA and a Research Associate at
the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM). She holds a
博士. in international security and economic policy from the University of Mary-
土地, 学院公园. The views expressed here are her own.

Olga Oliker is Director of the Europe and Central Asia Program at the Internation-
al Crisis Group and an adjunct professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of
Advanced International Studies (SAIS). She holds a Ph.D. in political science from
the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The views expressed here are her own.

尾注

1 For a discussion of the evolution of Russian writings and official documents, see Andrey
Kortunov, “Between Polycentrism and Bipolarity,” Russia in Global Affairs, 行进 26, 2019,
https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/Between-Polycentrism-and-Bipolarity-19988.
2 Vladimir Putin, speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum plenary
session, 英石. Petersburg, 俄罗斯, 可能 25, 2018, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/
news/57556.

3 Alexander Gabuev, “Why Russia and China Are Strengthening Security Ties,” Foreign
事务 97 (5) (2018), https://carnegie.ru/2018/09/24/why-russia-and-china-are-strength
ening-security-ties-pub-77333.

4 Dina Smeltz, Lily Wojtowicz, and Stepan Goncharov, “Despite Last Year’s Expectations,
Publics Sense Strains in U.S.-Russia Relations,” Chicago Council on Global Affairs,
二月 7, 2018, https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/publication/despite-last-years
-expectations-publics-sense-strains-us-russia-relations.

5 For an argument about raiding, see Michael Kofman, “Raiding and International
Brigandry: Russia’s Strategy for Great Power Competition,” War on the Rocks,
六月 14, 2018, https://warontherocks.com/2018/06/raiding-and-international-brigandry
-russias-strategy-for-great-power-competition/.

6 Valeriy Gerasimov, “Vektory Razvitiia Voennoi Strategii [Vectors of the Development
of Military Strategy],” speech to the Academy of Military Sciences, 行进 4, 2019,
http://redstar.ru/vektory-razvitiya-voennoj-strategii/.

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7 Sergey Lavrov, “Speech by Sergey Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian
联邦,” in Primakov Readings 2018: Hedging Risks of Unstable World Order, 收藏
of Materials for International Forum 29–30.05.2018 (莫斯科: Institute of World
Economy and International Relations, 2018), https://www.imemo.ru/files/File/ru/
publ/2018/2018_30.pdf.

8 Ruslan Pukhov, “NATO Is the Obstacle to Improving Russian-Western Relations,” De-
fense News, 行进 28, 2019, https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/
2019/03/28/nato-is-the-obstacle-to-improving-russian-western-relations/.

9 “Otnosheniie k Stranam [Attitudes toward Countries],” Levada Center, https://万维网

.levada.ru/indikatory/otnoshenie-k-stranam/.

10 See “Bolee Poloviny Rossiian Sochli Real’noi Ugrozu Voiny s Drugimi Stranami [更多的
than Half of Russians Assess Real Threat of War with Other Countries],” Levada
中心, 一月 30, 2019, https://www.levada.ru/2019/01/30/bolee-poloviny-rossiyan
-sochli-realnoj-ugrozu-vojny-s-drugimi-stranami/; and “Rossiiane Chuvstvuiut, Chto
Vkhodiat v Tret’iu Mirovuiu [Russians Feel Third World War Is Beginning],” Leva-
da Center, 四月 16, 2018, https://www.levada.ru/2018/04/16/rossiyane-chuvstvuyut
-chto-vhodyat-v-tretyu-mirovuyu/.

11 Transcript of the meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club, Sochi, 俄罗斯,

十月 18, 2018, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58848.

12 Vladimir Putin’s Address to the Federal Assembly, 莫斯科, 俄罗斯, 行进 1, 2018,

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56957.

13 Vladimir L. Leontiev, “Message Received. Attempt at Distance Communication with
美国. State Department,” Independent Military Review, 四月 12, 2019, 翻译
available at Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, http://www.mid
.ru/web/guest/foreign_policy/international_safety/regprla/-/asset_publisher/YCx
LFJnKuD1W/content/id/3613093; 和V. F. Lata, “Present and Future of the Strategic
Missile Forces as the Guarantor of the Defense and Security in Russia,” Vestnik Akademii
Voennykh Nauk, 二月 2018, https://dlib.eastview.com/browse/doc/51523032.
14 A. A. Kokoshin, “Strategic Nuclear and Nonnuclear Deterrence: Modern Priorities,”

Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences 84 (2) (2014).

15 See Dmitriy Akhmerov, Evgeniy Akhmerov, and Marat Valeev, “Po Bystromy Ne Po-
luchit’sia [Quickly Won’t Work],” Voenno-Promyshlennyy Kur’er, 十月 19, 2015,
https://vpk-news.ru/articles/27617.

16 Alexey Arbatov, Vladimir Dvorkin, and Petr Topychkanov, “Entanglement as New Se-
curity Threat: A Russian Perspective,” in Entanglement as a New Security Threat: A Rus-
sian Perspective, 编辑. James Acton (华盛顿, 华盛顿特区: Carnegie Endowment for Inter-
national Peace, 2017), https://carnegie.ru/2017/11/08/entanglement-as-new-security
-threat-russian-perspective-pub-73163.

17 “Voennaia Doktrina Rossiiskoi Federatsii [Military Doctrine of the Russian Feder-
化],” February 5, 2010, http://www.kremlin.ru/supplement/461; and “Voennaia
Doktrina Rossiiskoi Federatsii [Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation],” Ros-
siyskaya Gazeta, 十二月 25, 2014, https://rg.ru/2014/12/30/doktrina-dok.html.
See translation of the text of the 2010 doctrine at https://carnegieendowment.org/
files/2010russia_military_doctrine.pdf; and translation of the text of the 2014 doctrine
在https://rusemb.org.uk/press/2029.

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18 See Gudrun Persson, 编辑。, Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective–2016 (Stock-
holm: Swedish Defense Research Agency, 2016), https://www.foi.se/rest-api/report/
FOI-R–4326–SE.

19 Brad Roberts, “On Adapting Nuclear Deterrence to Reduce Nuclear Risk,代达罗斯 149

(2) (2020).

20 Transcript of the meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club, 十月 27, 2016,

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53151.

21 Bruno Tetrais, “Russia’s Nuclear Policy: Worrying for the Wrong Reasons,” 生存 60

(2) (2018).

22 See translation of the text of the 1993 military doctrine at https://fas.org/nuke/guide/
russia/doctrine/russia-mil-doc.html. On the debate, see Jacob W. Kipp, “Forecast-
ing Future War: Andrei Kokoshin and the Military-Political Debate in Contemporary
俄罗斯. Andrei Kokoshin: Scholar and Bureaucrat” (Fort Leavenworth, Kans.: 为了-
eign Military Studies Office, 1999), http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/agency
/990100-kokoshin.htm; “Novyi Sekretar’ Soveta Bezopasnosti Andrei Kokoshin i
Ego Proekt Voennoi Reformy [New Security Council Secretary Andrei Kokoshin and
His Military Reform Plan],” Voprosy Bezopasnosti 5 (1998); Andrei Kokoshin, “Military-
Political and Economic Aspects of Reform of the Russian Armed Forces,” Military
想法, 九月 1996; “Interesy Rossii. Makhmut Gareev: Iadernoe Oruzhie v
Sovremennom Mire [Russia’s Interests. Makhmut Gareev: Nuclear Weapons in the
现代世界],” Krasnaia Zvezda, 六月 29, 1994; Makhmut A. Gareev, “Voina i Voennoe
Iskusstvo v Meniaiushchemsia Mire [War and Military Art in a Changing World],”
Mezhdunarodnaia Zhizn’ 3 (1994); Makhmut Gareev, “Kontury Vooruzhennoi Bor’by
Budushchego [Contours of Future Armed Conflict],” Mezhdunarodnaia Zhizn’ 4 (1994);
Makhmut Gareev, Esli Zavtra Voina [If War Comes Tomorrow?] (莫斯科: Vladar,
1995); and “Novaia Kontseptsiia Natsional’noi Bezopasnosti Rossii: Vopros Iadernogo
Oruzhiia [New Russian National Security Concept: The Question of Nuclear Weap-
昂斯],” Voprosy Bezopasnosti 22 (2) (1998).

23 See translation of the text of the 2000 doctrine at Arms Control Association, “Russia’s

Military Doctrine,” https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2000_05/dc3ma00.

24 See “Russia Reserves Pre-Emptive Nuclear Strike Right,” Reuters, 十月 13, 2009,

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLD72025.

25 Kokoshin also notes that the threshold war raised in 2010. Kokoshin, “Strategic Nuclear

and Nonnuclear Deterrence.”

26 See “Voennaia Doktrina Rossiiskoi Federatsii [Military Doctrine of the Russian Federa-
的],” 2014; or a translation of the text of the 2014 doctrine at https://rusemb.org.uk/
press/2029. For discussion of non-nuclear deterrence, see Kokoshin, “Strategic Nucle-
ar and Nonnuclear Deterrence.”

27 Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Field of Naval Operations for
the Period Until 2030, 反式. Anna Davis (Newport, R.I.: Russia Maritime Studies Institute,
我们. Naval War College, 2017), https://dnnlgwick.blob.core.windows.net/portals/
0/NWCDepartments/Russia%20Maritime%20Studies%20Institute/RMSI_RusNavy
FundamentalsENG_FINAL%20(1).pdf?sr=b&si=DNNFileManagerPolicy&sig=fjFDEg
Whpd1ING%2FnmGQXqaH5%2FDEujDU76EnksAB%2B1A0%3D.

28 Igor Sutyagin, Atomic Accounting: A New Estimate of Russia’s Non-Strategic Nuclear Forces
(伦敦: Royal United Services Institute, 2012); Pavel Podvig and Javier Serrat, Lock

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149 (2) Spring 2020Anya Loukianova Fink & Olga Oliker

Them Up: Zero-Deployed Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe (日内瓦: 联合国
Institute for Disarmament Research, 2017).

29 Vladimir Putin’s Address to the Federal Assembly, 2018.
30 See Persson, Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective–2016.
31 Gareev, “Voina i Voennoe Iskusstvo v Meniaiushchemsia Mire,” 91–98; and Makhmut
Gareev, “Kontury Vooruzhennoi Bor’by Budushchego [Countours of Future Armed
Conflict],” Mezhdunarodnaia Zhizn’ 4 (1994): 75–84.

32 Oleg Odnokolenko, “General-Polkovnik Vektor Esin: ‘Esli Amerikantsy Vse-Taki Na-
chhnut Razvorachivat’ Svoi Rakety v Evrope, Nam Nichego Ne Ostanetsia, Kak Ot-
kazat’sia Ot Doktriny Otvetno-Vstrechnogo Udara i Pereiti k Doktrine Uprezhdai-
ushchego Udara [General-Colonel Viktor Esin: If the Americans Begin Deploying
Their Missiles in Europe after All, We Will Have No Choice but to Reject a Launch-
Under-Attack Doctrine and Shift to a First-Strike Doctrine],” Zvezda, 十一月 8, 2018,
https://zvezdaweekly.ru/news/t/2018117102-0iaAI.html; and “Russian Expert Rogov
on the Suspension of the INF Treaty: We Can Inflict an Intolerable Blow on the Amer-
伊坎人,” The Middle East Media Research Institute Special Dispatch No. 7873, 二月
4, 2019, https://www.memri.org/reports/russian-expert-rogov-suspension-inf-treaty
-we-can-inflict-intolerable-blow-americans.

33 Amy Woolf, Russian Compliance with the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty: Back-
ground and Issues for Congress (华盛顿, 华盛顿特区: Congressional Research Service, updat-
编辑 2019), https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R43832.pdf.

34 As Putin stated in his Federal Assembly speech, the West “got the impression” that “there
is no point in reckoning with Russia’s opinion, [和] it is necessary [for the West] 到
further pursue ultimate unilateral military advantage in order to dictate the terms in
every sphere in the future.” Vladimir Putin’s Address to the Federal Assembly, 2018.

35 Linton F. 布鲁克斯, “The End of Arms Control?代达罗斯 149 (2) (2020).
36 “Riabkov: V Mosckve Schitaiut, Chto SShA Narushili Dogovor o SNV, Vyvedia iz Zach-
eta Chast’ Nositelei [Ryabkov: In Moscow, They See the U.S. as Having Violated the
START Agreement by Removing Some Delivery Vehicles from Their Count],” bfm.ru,
十二月 24, 2018, https://www.bfm.ru/news/402965; and Andrey Baklitskiy, “Arms
Control Is Dead. Long Live Arms Control,” Carnegie Moscow Center, 行进 21, 2019,
https://carnegie.ru/commentary/78651.

37 For varying opinions on North Korea, see Anastasia Barannikova, “O Iadernoi Doktrine
KNDR [On North Korea’s Nuclear Doctrine],” Russian Council on International Af-
博览会, 二月 28, 2018, http://russiancouncil.ru/blogs/dvfu/anastasiya-barannikova
-o-yadernoy-doktrine-kndr/; and Sergey Karaganov and Artyom Kobzev, “Poka Nu-
zhno Kak Mozhno Zhestche Slerzhivat’ SShA [For Now, We Must Deter the U.S. 作为
Forcefully as Possible],” Russia in Global Affairs, 可能 25, 2016, http://www.globalaffairs
.ru/pubcol/Poka-nuzhno-kak-mozhno-zhestche-sderzhivat-SShA-18184.

38 For positive proposals of an agenda that did not come to pass, see Anton Khlopkov, “Rus-
sia’s Nuclear Security Policy: Priorities and Potential Areas of Cooperation,” Policy
Analysis Brief (马斯卡廷, 爱荷华州: 斯坦利基金会, 2015), https://www.stanley
foundation.org/publications/pab/KhlopkovPAB515.pdf.

39 “Statement by H. 乙. 先生. Sergey Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Fed-
eration at the Plenary Session of the Conference on Disarmament, 日内瓦, 行进 20,

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2019,” Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the United Nations Office in
日内瓦, https://geneva.mid.ru/web/geneva_en/international-security-and-disarmament
/-/asset_publisher/Gx3M ed4zxBAF/content/statement-by-h-e-mr-sergey-lavrov
-minister-of-foreign-affairs-of-the-russian-federation-at-the-plenary-session-of-the
-conference-on-disarmament-geneva.

40 Harald Müller and Carmen Wunderlich, “Nuclear Disarmament without the Nuclear-

Weapon States: The Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty,代达罗斯 149 (2) (2020).

41 “Rossiia Ne Namerena Prisoedinizt’sia k Dogovoru o Zapreshchenii Iadernogo Oruzhiia
[Russia Is Not Planning to Join the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons],”
Russian News Agency TASS, 十月 2017, https://tass.ru/politika/4663129.

42 As Putin described Russia’s new nuclear capabilities in March 2018, “highly effective but

modestly priced.” Vladimir Putin’s Address to the Federal Assembly.

43 Alexey Arbatov, “Rossiya i Gonka Vooruzhenii [Russia and the Arms Race],” Nezavisi-
moe Voennoe Obozrenie, 四月 24, 2016, http://www.ng.ru/stsenarii/2016-04-26/13_race
.html.

44 Christopher F. Chyba, “New Technologies & Strategic Stability,代达罗斯 149 (2) (2020).
45 James Timbie, “A Way Forward,代达罗斯 149 (2) (2020).
46 Nina Tannenwald, “Life beyond Arms Control: Moving toward a Global Regime of Nu-

clear Restraint & Responsibility,代达罗斯 149 (2) (2020).

47 “Statement by H. 乙. 先生. Sergey Lavrov.”
48 Sergey Rogov, remarks in “The ‘New Bipolarity’: A Myth or Reality,” in Primakov Readings

2018.

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149 (2) Spring 2020Anya Loukianova Fink & Olga Oliker
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