叙事与战争
Narratives and War C. 威廉
Walldorf Jr.
解释美国的长度和结束.
Military Operations in Afghanistan
在五月 2017, amid yet
another intense national debate about increasing troops in Afghanistan,
President Donald Trump asked Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), “如何
这结束?” Graham answered, “It never ends.” Soon after, Vice President Mike
Pence implored Graham to give Trump an off-ramp, some kind of exit strategy.
According to Bob Woodward, Graham responded, “It would never end.”1
Until Trump’s 2020 troop reduction and, 尤其, President Joe Biden’s
2021 decision to end combat operations entirely, Graham’s counsel seemed al-
most prophetic. Despite long-standing countervailing pressures at home
(例如, lobbying by advocates of restraint, public disdain for the war, 还有
as the pro-withdrawal sentiments of Biden and his two immediate predeces-
索尔斯), the United States stayed in Afghanistan for two decades.2 What sus-
tained this war for so long, and what allowed Trump to begin and Biden to
complete the drawdown?
Conventional arguments in international relations about geopolitics, 精英
(例如, “the Blob”),3 and partisanship struggle to answer these questions.
Given these shortcomings, this article turns to a new theory of war duration to
explain the length and end of the U.S. war in Afghanistan. The approach cen-
特尔斯, at the broadest level, on collective national will or purpose. It does so,
more speciªcally, by focusing primary causal attention on a largely under-
appreciated yet historically important factor in U.S. foreign policy: strate-
gic narratives.4
C. 小威廉·沃尔多夫. is Associate Professor of Politics and International Affairs and the Shively Family
Faculty Fellow at Wake Forest University.
The author appreciates comments from Mark Haas, John Owen, and the anonymous reviewers, 作为
well as research support from Megan Kilduff. The online appendix for this article is available at
https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/82RNG7.
1. Cited in Bob Woodward, Fear: Trump in the White House (纽约: 西蒙和舒斯特, 2018),
PP. 121–122.
2. On restraint, see Barry R. 波森, 克制: 美国的新基金会. 大战略 (伊萨卡岛,
纽约: 康奈尔大学出版社, 2014); and Stephen M. 沃尔特, The Hell of Good Intentions: America’s
Foreign Policy Elite and the Decline of U.S. Primacy (纽约: 法拉尔, 斯特劳斯和吉鲁, 2018).
3. 沃尔特, The Hell of Good Intentions, p. 18. Walt attributes the label “the Blob” for the U.S. foreign
policy establishment to former Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes.
4. On collective ideas and narratives, see Ronald R. Krebs, Narrative and the Making of U.S. 国家的
国际安全, 卷. 47, 不. 1 (夏天 2022), PP. 93–138, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00439
© 2022 由哈佛大学和麻省理工学院的校长和研究员撰写.
93
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国际安全 47:1 94
I deªne strategic narratives as collective national or public-level stories that
form out of and center around traumatic events for a group. These events
come to be viewed in existential terms as a danger to the national way of life.
By collective, I mean that narratives are properties of groups or social facts,
like culture. For a nation-state, a narrative becomes collectively salient because
it restores order by explaining the pain, assigning blame, 和, most impor-
急切地, setting lessons going forward to avoid a return to the pain of the past.
These lessons are often reºected in a simple mantra—such as “No More
Vietnams” or “Stop Terrorism”—that takes on a life of its own in ways that
interests to pursue abroad and shape policy debates
determine national
over time.5
This article focuses on one especially important type of strategic narrative—
the liberal narrative—in the history of U.S. foreign policy. A robust liberal nar-
rative is distinguished by its lesson, notably the need to safeguard liberal
political order abroad, “either by promotion (IE。, expanding democracy and
liberal rights) or protection (IE。, preventing the spread of counter-ideologies
to liberalism).”6 The liberal narrative manifests in temporally unique vari-
ants such as the anti-fascist narrative of the 1930s and 1940s and the anti-
communist narrative during the Cold War. With lessons to defend freedom
and stop counter-ideologies from spreading, both shared a commitment to
protect liberal political order, making them “liberal narratives.”7
历史上, liberal narratives like these affect policy through the contested
nature of democratic politics. At key decision points about the use of force,
powerful narratives augment in predictable ways some voices over others
in policy debates. 特别是, by tapping into or drawing upon the lessons of a
安全 (剑桥: 剑桥大学出版社, 2015); Andrew Yeo, Activists, Alliances, 和
Anti-U.S. Base Protests (纽约: 剑桥大学出版社, 2011); Nina Tannenwald, The Nu-
clear Taboo: The United States and the Non-use of Nuclear Weapons since 1945 (剑桥: 剑桥
大学出版社, 2007); and Martha Finnemore, The Purpose of Intervention: Changing Beliefs about
the Use of Force (伊萨卡岛, 纽约: 康奈尔大学出版社, 2003).
5. C. William Walldorf Jr., To Shape Our World for Good: Master Narratives and Regime Change in U.S.
Foreign Policy, 1900–2011 (伊萨卡岛, 纽约: 康奈尔大学出版社, 2019), PP. 5–14.
6. The liberal narrative and grand strategies—like liberal internationalism—are distinct social
现象. Leaders may consider narratives in building grand strategies, but those narratives are
不是, in and of themselves, grand strategies. See ibid., PP. 5–13.
7. The absence of this narrative does not imply an “illiberal” narrative space for the United States;
相当, it means that the nation values less those policies that actively advance or protect liberal or-
der abroad, meaning that the nation is more exemplarist than vindicationist, to use Jonathan
Monten’s description. Jonathan Monten, “The Roots of the Bush Doctrine: 力量, Nationalism,
and Democracy Promotion in U.S. 战略,” 国际安全, 卷. 29, 不. 4 (春天 2005),
PP. 112–156, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec.2005.29.4.112.
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叙事与战争 95
prevailing narrative, agents gain inºuence by building policy discourses that
increase leaders’ perceived audience costs, which are deªned as the “domes-
tic political price” that leaders pay for choices that are at odds with strong
public preferences.8 Given a narrative’s public salience, leaders fear potential
electoral or policy losses and, 反过来, tend to bring their decisions in line
with these narrative-augmented discourses, sometimes against their bet-
ter judgment.9
This strategic-narrative argument helps explain the length and end of the
我们. war in Afghanistan. The severity of the September 11 terrorist attacks cou-
pled with the frequency of follow-on attacks globally by al-Qaeda and the
Islamic State (ISIS) into the late 2010s generated and sustained a powerful col-
lective story across the U.S. body politic of missed opportunities by U.S. 带领-
ers and a lesson to combat terrorism abroad. This anti-terrorism narrative is
the most recent variant of a robust liberal narrative in the U.S. policy process.
At various decision points, the narrative created space for promoters of war
(especially in the U.S. 军队) to generate discourses that raised audience
costs of inaction and politically boxed in presidents to sustain or expand the
我们. war in Afghanistan. Concerns about looking “soft” and not measuring up
to narrative standards shaped the decisions of both President Barack Obama
and Trump (early in his term) to stay engaged militarily. 最近几年, narra-
tive measures show that as the severity and frequency of terrorist attacks re-
ceded (IE。, collapse of the ISIS caliphate, absence of severe al-Qaeda attacks),
the anti-terrorism narrative also lost policy salience. Moderators (在这种情况下,
civilian leaders and policy experts) gained leverage, audience costs of inaction
declined, and restraint gained traction in policy debates. Like event-driven
narrative dynamics (IE。, following the killing of Osama bin Laden) that al-
lowed Obama to withdraw from Iraq in 2011, the national sense of purpose in
Afghanistan waned, creating political space for Trump to decrease troops and
for Biden to end the war entirely.
The strategic-narrative argument builds upon and ªlls important gaps in ex-
isting scholarship. In contrast to standard rationalist accounts, it explores the
social construction of audience costs and offers new insights into how narra-
8. Michael Tomz, “Domestic Audience Costs in International Relations: An Experimental Ap-
普罗奇,” 国际组织, 卷. 61, 不. 4 (2007), p. 821, https://doi.org/10.1017/S002081
8307070282.
9. 詹姆斯·D. Fearon, “Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes,”
American Political Science Review, 卷. 88, 不. 3 (1994), PP. 577–592, https://doi.org/10.2307/
2944796.
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国际安全 47:1 96
tives shape policy outcomes. The argument also turns to the framework of
cultural trauma to explain strategic narratives more systematically.10 In con-
trast to some accounts that focus primarily on inºuential agents to explain
how narratives form and endure, trauma theory draws primary attention to
the importance of events (例如, 九月 11). When collectively viewed as exi-
stentially dangerous, these events spark new narratives such as the anti-
terrorism narrative. Similar follow-on events over time re-traumatize the na-
的, helping maintain the salience of the narrative as a lodestar for foreign
policy for years or even decades on end. 除其他事项外, this trauma
framework best accounts for the long-standing vitality of the anti-terrorism
narrative in U.S. politics that other arguments about narratives struggle
to explain.
This article turns ªrst to conventional explanations, speciªcally arguments
centered on potential changes in Afghanistan’s geostrategic value to the
美国, the shifting partisan preferences of different presidential ad-
ministrations, variation in elite ideological or consensus-based pressures,
and shifts in civil-military relations. The second and third sections detail the
strategic-narrative argument and methods. Sections four through six present
the Afghanistan case studies. The article concludes with policy implications.
Existing Explanations for Why the U.S. War in Afghanistan Ended
The war in Afghanistan was the centerpiece of U.S. forever wars across the
ªrst two decades of the 2000s. Presidents Obama, Trump, and Biden con-
ducted major policy reviews early in their administrations. The ªrst two opted
against withdrawal and increased troops instead—Obama by 30,000 在 2009
and Trump by 4,000 在 2017. Three years later, Trump began—and Biden
completed—the withdrawal. What explains this change?
Standard explanations struggle to answer this question. Realists see no
geostrategic value in nation-building wars like Afghanistan. Although the end
of the war makes sense to realists, its duration does not.11 Partisan arguments
offer no clear explanation either—Obama (D) continued President George W.
10. Jeffrey C. Alexander et al., Cultural Trauma and Collective Identity (伯克利: University of Cali-
fornia Press, 2004).
11. 斯蒂芬·M. 沃尔特, “How Not to Leave Afghanistan,“ 对外政策, 二月 23, 2021, https://
foreignpolicy.com/2021/02/23/how-not-to-leave-afghanistan/; 和沃尔特, The Hell of Good Inten-
系统蒸发散, PP. 255–292.
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叙事与战争 97
Bush’s (右) policy that Trump (右) also initially followed before shifting to with-
drawal, which Biden (D) elected to continue.12 Elite-based arguments fare
poorly, 也. For those who focus on elite ideology, reduced elite ideological
concerns about Afghanistan over the past decade (例如, Obama on the overre-
action to September 11 and talks of terrorism as nonexistential) should have
meant that the United States ended the war years ago. 所以, why the
United States stayed so long and what changed to allow Biden to leave when
others could not is puzzling.13 This is not to say that ideology is irrelevant; 它
affects how narratives form, but in ways that the narrow focus in extant work
on elites alone does not capture well.14 Alternatively, some scholars argue that
a powerful establishment consensus aimed at sustaining U.S. “liberal hegem-
ony” explains U.S. wars in the Middle East. 简而言之, elites want forever wars
and get what they want.15 But if this theory is correct, then how did Biden end
the war? As a constant, establishment consensus cannot explain this, nor can it
explain many other decisions for retrenchment, such as Obama’s choice in
2011 to withdraw all troops from Iraq and his refusal to enforce the Syrian “red
line” in 2014.
最后, I suggest that the strongest conventional argument comes from the
civil-military relations literature. When the military enters the political fray
with dire public warnings of danger ahead for the nation, some scholars argue
that civil-military relations tilt toward the military in ways that often lead to
strategically suboptimal outcomes, such as continuing stalemated forever
wars. 相比之下, these kinds of wars result in retrenchment only when civil-
ians regain the upper hand, especially by muzzling the military in public.16
The problem with this argument is not that it is wrong. 实际上, the strategic-
12. 查尔斯·A. Kupchan and Peter L. Trubowitz, “Dead Center: The Demise of Liberal Internation-
alism in the United States,” 国际安全, 卷. 32, 不. 2 (落下 2007), PP. 7–44, https://
doi.org/10.1162/isec.2007.32.2.7. Other counterarguments (例如, economic strength, COVID-19,
and the Iraq surge) also fare poorly.
13. Ronald R. Krebs, “Pity the President,” National Interest, 不. 148 (March/April 2017), p. 37,
https://www.jstor.org/stable/26557376; and Jeffrey Goldberg, “The Obama Doctrine: A New
‘Global War on Terror,’” Atlantic, 四月 2016, p. 75.
14. For an extended discussion, see Walldorf, To Shape Our World for Good, PP. 17–19, 226 n. 57.
15. 沃尔特, The Hell of Good Intentions; and Patrick Porter, “Why America’s Grand Strategy Has Not
Changed: 力量, Habit, 和美国. Foreign Policy Establishment,” 国际安全, 卷. 42,
No.4 (春天 2018), PP. 9–46, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00311.
16. For a survey, see Peter D. Feaver, “The Right to Be Right: Civil-Military Relations and the Iraq
Surge Decision,” 国际安全, 卷. 35, 不. 4 (春天 2011), PP. 90–97, https://doi.org/
10.1162/ISEC_a_00033.
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国际安全 47:1 98
narrative argument I develop here agrees that the balance between military
leaders as powerful promoters of war and civilian leaders as moderators of
war is important. 不出所料, 然后, when military leaders went public (或者
threatened to do so) in the Obama and Trump periods, civilian leaders capitu-
lated, troops increased, and war continued. In the Biden period, 然而, 词-
vilians carried the upper hand, the military chose not to go public with its
preferences to continue the ªght, and the president ended the war. In a broad
感觉, the cases match civil-military expectations.
This argument’s greatest shortcoming comes with explaining change, 哪个
is the main puzzle of this article. If the civil-military relations balance is critical
to both the continuation of and the end to forever wars, such as the war in
阿富汗, why does that balance tilt one way or the other at different times?
More speciªcally, why does the military go public sometimes and not others,
why and how do the public appeals of the military generate pressure on civil-
ian leaders, and under what conditions are civilians able to muzzle the mili-
tary and, in so doing, gain more leverage over policy?
The politics of strategic narratives help answer questions like these. 这
civil-military balance generally favors the military when there is a robust lib-
eral narrative—such as the anti-terrorism narrative from 2001 到 2018. The nar-
rative gives military promoters (and their civilian supporters in government)
an important political tool to build public pressure on civilian leaders in order
to continue/expand war. Military leaders are most likely to go public (或者
threaten to do so) under such narrative conditions. Civilian leaders—fearful
of the political costs of not measuring up to narrative standards (IE。, looking
“weak” or “losing”)—capitulate to military pressure. But when a liberal narra-
tive weakens, the civil-military balance often tilts toward the former. 军队
promoters ªnd themselves on more tenuous ground in policy debates. 在里面
absence of nationwide, narrative-driven fervor to intervene militarily in con-
ºicts abroad, the military tends to hesitate about going public with its prefer-
ences for more force. As the public costs of looking weak recede with the
weakened liberal narrative, civilians/moderators ªnd more political space to
assert themselves, both in internal debates and in public. Long wars such as
美国. war in Afghanistan often come to an end.
总共, the nexus between civil-military relations and strategic narratives
provides deeper insights into why long wars endure and ultimately end. 国际米兰-
national relations scholars have shed a great deal of light on the former but not
on the latter. For that reason, I now turn greater attention to the narrative side
of this equation.
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叙事与战争 99
Trauma, Narratives, and War
Narratives are not new to the ªeld of international relations. The existing
literature on narratives faces two primary shortcomings, though.17 First,
scholars offer no clear explanation for why and when narratives shape
policy outcomes, like decisions to continue or end forever wars. My attention
to audience costs corrects for this. 第二, in explaining how narratives
strengthen and weaken over time, existing scholarship gives primary attention
to narrators—especially the president in the U.S. context.18 Although narrators
(and sometimes presidents, 像这样) 很重要, these arguments tend to
overlook how events shape strategic narratives’ content and strength across
时间. In the mid-2010s, President Obama tried to re-narrate and dampen ter-
rorism worries in the United States, 例如. He largely failed because
most U.S. citizens viewed Obama’s new story as being out of touch amid a
surge in ISIS terrorist attacks. The president told the wrong story at the wrong
时间. Events matter.
I start with scholarship on collective trauma, which draws attention to two
particularly important concepts: the severity and the frequency of events. Neil
Smelser deªnes cultural trauma as “a memory accepted and given public cre-
dence by a relevant membership group and evoking an event(s) or situation(s)
这是一个) laden with . . . 影响, 乙) represented as indelible, and c) regarded as
threatening a society’s existence or violating one or more of its fundamental
cultural presuppositions.”19 Building off this deªnition, trauma involves three
stages that leave behind marks on society, essentially new prevailing narra-
特维斯. The strategic-narrative argument starts with identity, which determines
what a community values most. Stage one involves severe events that are per-
ceived as an attack on these values, an existential challenge making them trau-
matic.20 This severity produces deep emotional reactions—“disgust, shame,
有罪 . . . or anxiety”—for a community, which leads quickly to stage two of
17. For a more expanded discussion, see Walldorf, To Shape Our World for Good, PP. 19–24.
18. Krebs, Narrative and the Making of U.S. 国家安全, PP. 31–65, 269–274; and Stacie E.
Goddard and Ronald R. Krebs, “Rhetoric, Legitimation, and Grand Strategy,” 安全研究,
卷. 24, 不. 1 (2015), PP. 5–36, https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2014.1001198.
19. Neil J. Smelser, “Psychological Trauma and Cultural Trauma,” in Alexander et al., 文化
Trauma and Collective Identity, p. 44.
20. 同上。, PP. 36, 44; and Jeffrey C. 亚历山大, “Toward a Theory of Cultural Trauma,” in Alexan-
der et al., Cultural Trauma and Collective Identity, PP. 1, 10. These kinds of challenges to national
身份, 价值观, and events—whether big (an invasion) or small (a bombing in a café)—can
traumatize a nation.
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国际安全 47:1 100
trauma, notably a collective search for new “routines” and ways to “get by in
the world.”21 Above all else, the affected community looks to presumed wise
ªgures in society for explanation and ways forward.22
Stage three of trauma—the formation of new collective narratives—emerges
from these explanations. Many enter the fray amid severity, often telling com-
peting stories. Speciªc kinds of severity resonate with the injured group in
ways that privilege some stories over others.23 As a result of the disquiet gen-
erated by certain events, some stories become afªrmed, validated, 并收集-
tively labeled as “good.” Storytellers gain a hearing, according to Jeffrey
亚历山大, when they “represent social pain as a fundamental threat to . . .
[a group’s] sense of who they are.”24 If severe events repeat frequently, privi-
leged stories resonate deeper and longer. High frequency re-traumatizes the
集体, which makes the story indelible (IE。, “see, I told you so”) and helps
sustain it over time as the new collective wisdom—or prevailing narrative—
with new ways of being going forward.25
This latter element—new directions toward repair—is a natural part of
trauma-generated narratives. Effective storytellers repeatedly narrate ways for
“defense and coping,” drawing attention to “mistakes and how they may be
avoided in the future” (IE。, blame and lesson).26 These lessons are often encap-
sulated in slogans such as “no more Vietnams,” “no more 9/11s,” or “who lost
中国?” (which helped propel intervention in Korea and Vietnam). 教训
and severe event(s) are intrinsically connected in narratives—the latter gives
meaning to the former.27
This trauma framework—centered on the severity and frequency of
events—helps explain the emergence and cross-temporal strength of strategic
narratives in U.S. foreign policy.28 For this article, I grant special attention to
21. Jennifer Mitzen, “Ontological Security in World Politics: State Identity and the Security Di-
引理,” European Journal of International Relations, 卷. 12, 不. 3 (2006), PP. 342, 345–346, https://
doi.org/10.1177/1354066106067346.
22. 亚历山大, “Toward a Theory of Cultural Trauma,” p. 10. Agents may include authoritative
ªgures such as politicians, priests, intellectuals, policy elites, or moral activists.
23. 同上。, p. 10; and Sidney Tarrow, Power in Movement: Social Movements, Collective Action, and Poli-
抽动症 (剑桥: 剑桥大学出版社, 1994), PP. 118–123, 130.
24. 亚历山大, “Toward a Theory of Cultural Trauma,” p. 11.
25. 同上。, p. 15; and Smelser, “Psychological Trauma and Cultural Trauma,” PP. 41–42, 45.
26. Arthur G. Neal, National Trauma and Collective Memory: Major Events in the American Century
(阿蒙克, 纽约: M.E. 夏普, 1998), PP. 5, 23, 201; and Smelser, “Psychological Trauma and Cul-
tural Trauma,” PP. 38–53.
27. Ron Eyerman, “Cultural Trauma: Slavery and the Formation of African American Identity,“ 在
Alexander et al., Cultural Trauma and Collective Identity, p. 63.
28. On trauma theory and nation-states, see Emma Hutchison, “Trauma and the Politics of Emo-
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叙事与战争 101
one kind of trauma—external trauma—and the type of narrative that it tends
to generate. Trauma theorists ªnd that severe event(s) from some force out-
side a community leads to group unity around a story centered on protecting
the ideals of the community—that is, “who we are”—as a means of defense or
repair.29 This external trauma helps explain the emergence and strength of lib-
eral narratives (such as the anti-terrorism narrative) that centers on activism
abroad to defend or promote liberal political order.
Liberal states (including the public in these states) view other states and de-
velopments in the international system through the ideological lens of their
own regime type (IE。, 身份)—they notice and worry about the plight of lib-
eral order abroad because it threatens their own security.30 The severe events
most likely to spark stage one of trauma emerge when ideologically distant—
in this case illiberal—rival(s) make strategic gains, especially through either a
direct attack on the United States or a series of attacks on other kindred liberal
or liberalizing states. Like the ideology literature in international relations, I ar-
gue that these kinds of strategic shifts are not objective, as realists expect. 在-
代替, their impact on a polity is conditioned by state identity.31 When these
attacks produce civilian casualties and/or lead to the expansion of illiberal
governments abroad, collective anxiety around existential danger to the na-
tional way of life rises exponentially. This sense of existential panic around
high-severity events comes almost immediately after direct attacks (例如,
Pearl Harbor or September 11).32 With indirect attacks on ideological kin, 地理-
graphic distance from the target often means that it takes several accumulated
attacks to generate the same collective sense of severity and, with that, collec-
tive trauma.33
Whether their pathway is direct or indirect, high-severity attacks lead to
的: Constituting Identity, 安全, and Community after the Bali Bombing,” International Rela-
系统蒸发散, 卷. 24, 不. 1 (2010), p. 66, https://doi.org/10.1177/0047117809348712.
29. Neal, National Trauma and Collective Memory, PP. 17, 22, 69–71; and Neil J. Smelser, “Epilogue:
九月 11, 2001, as Cultural Trauma,” in Alexander et al., Cultural Trauma and Collective Identity,
p. 270.
30. Michael W. 多伊尔, “Liberalism and World Politics,” American Political Science Review, 卷. 80,
不. 4 (十二月 1986), p. 1161, https://doi.org/10.2307/1960861.
31. 约翰·M. Owen IV, The Clash of Ideas in World Politics: Transnational Networks, 状态, and Regime
改变, 1510–2010 (普林斯顿大学, 新泽西州: 普林斯顿大学出版社, 2010), PP. 31–52; and Mark L. Haas,
The Ideological Origins of Great Power Politics, 1789–1989 (伊萨卡岛, 纽约: 康奈尔大学出版社,
2005), PP. 4–40.
32. 看, 例如, Smelser, “Epilogue: 九月 11, 2001.”
33. Social psychologists and others call this “distant survivor syndrome.” See Robert Jay Lifton,
“Americans as Survivors,” New England Journal of Medicine, 卷. 352, 不. 22 (2005), p. 2263, https://
doi.org/10.1056/NEJMp058048.
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国际安全 47:1 102
stages two and three of trauma. Many of society’s “wise ªgures” will engage
in storytelling in stage two. External trauma privileges stories from agents
who I call “promoters,” those who validate public fears of existential danger
and the need to defend liberal order abroad.34 If rival gains come via direct at-
tack, promoter stories immediately prevail and the liberal narrative strength-
ens quickly.35 If attacks are indirect, the slower growth of severity means that
promoter stories gain acceptance more slowly, 也. In stage three, repeated ri-
val attacks/gains validate the promoter story, giving it collective strength.
最后, the frequency of events sustains narrative strength and salience over
时间. In a path-dependent way, the liberal narrative remains robust if an ideo-
logical rival regularly continues (IE。, at least every two or three years) to make
gains, especially if it either directly or indirectly attacks other ideologically
kindred (在这种情况下, liberal or liberalizing) states.36 In essence, frequent and
severe challenges abroad perpetually re-traumatize the nation, giving a robust
liberal narrative ongoing strength and vitality.37
The dominant variant of the liberal narrative during the Cold War—the anti-
communist narrative—offers a good example of the theory. In the 1940s, 这
我们. public was traumatized by a cascade of Soviet ideological gains: 社区-
nist advances in East-Central Europe, atomic bomb tests, an alliance with
newly communist China, and support of the Korean War. This develop-
ment shut out moderate voices, such as progressive Vice President Henry A.
华莱士, and allowed promoters to establish a robust liberal narrative around
stopping communism. For much of the forty years that followed, 经常的
demonstrations of communist-bloc strength (IE。, Sputnik, gains in Africa and
亚洲, the Cuban Revolution, 和 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan) 关于-
traumatized the United States, keeping the anti-communist narrative robust.38
There are two potential pathways by which severity and frequency can
weaken the liberal narrative. 第一的, the narrative will weaken most profoundly
and substantially when an ideological rival experiences a debilitating defeat
34. Threat involves geopolitics plus identity, similar to what is found in Haas, The Ideological Ori-
gins of Great Power Politics; 欧文, The Clash of Ideas; and Stephen M. 沃尔特, The Origins of Alliances
(伊萨卡岛, 纽约: 康奈尔大学出版社, 1987), PP. 1–50.
35. Liberal narratives may focus on protection against counter-ideologies or promotion of liberal
命令, similar to Haas, The Ideological Origins of Great Power Politics.
36. Indirect attacks here gain immediate salience because of an already robust narrative, 比如在
和记黄埔, “Trauma and the Politics of Emotion,” PP. 73–80.
37. Paul Pierson, “Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics,” American Po-
litical Science Review, 卷. 94, 不. 2 (2000), PP. 251–267, https://doi.org/10.2307/2586011.
38. Walldorf, To Shape Our World for Good, PP. 109–114.
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叙事与战争 103
or changes its ideology altogether. These kinds of positive events generate
what Emile Durkheim calls “success anomie,” or a collective sense of lost pur-
pose for the nation that makes the old narrative appear antiquated as a guide
for policy.39 Positive events profoundly weaken a temporal variant of the
liberal narrative for years to follow—this becomes permanent if a rival fails
to rebuild.
第二, narrative weakening could also occur when either trauma-generating
strategic gains by an ideological rival cease for at least four years, or when a ri-
val takes accommodating steps to reduce tension. This absence of negative
events can also produce success anomie. When either scenario happens, 这
frequency and severity of traumatic events fall below the threshold necessary
to sustain a robust liberal narrative. In these conditions, especially when
marked by the positive event of a rival’s debilitating defeat, a political oppor-
tunity space emerges for certain agents who I call “moderators” to engage in
storytelling about reduced ideological danger and restraint abroad. 我们. 普雷西-
dents sometimes become moderators, but as Obama found out the hard way,
their success as storytellers depends on the event-driven context. 那是, 他们
must tell the right story at the right time.40 The liberal narrative weakens
under these conditions of rival decline or absence of negative events; retrench-
ment settles in as the new lodestar for the polity. 例如, the liberal-
ization and eventual collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 initiated a major
re-narration by moderators. 因此, the anti-communist narrative disap-
peared from discussions of U.S. foreign policy.
narrative discourses and war
Narratives shape policy outcomes—such as decisions to sustain or end wars—
by raising audience costs. Standard accounts demonstrate that audience costs
emerge when heads of state bind themselves by making a public commitment
to action abroad.41 Audience costs from strategic narratives form in a different
方式, 然而, notably through social construction.42 At key decision points,
代理人 (promoters or moderators) use strategic narratives to build discourses
39. Émile Durkheim, 自杀: A Study in Sociology (Glencoe, Ill.: Free Press, 1951), p. 246.
40. Presidents can be important promoters, 也, in the right event-driven conditions. 例如,
see Walldorf, To Shape Our World for Good, PP. 83–87.
41. Fearon, “Domestic Political Audiences,” p. 583.
42. On the narrowness of the executive-commitment framework, see Jack Snyder and Erica D.
Borghard, “The Cost of Empty Threats: A Penny, Not a Pound,” American Political Science Review,
卷. 105, 不. 3 (2011), PP. 437–456, https://doi.org/10.1017/S000305541100027X.
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国际安全 47:1 104
for or against war. These discourses generate different domestic political cost-
beneªt scenarios: high audience costs of action, or high audience costs of inac-
tion.43 While not required for these kinds of discourses to form, appeals by
leaders with robust narratives as a justiªcation for policy may help fuel these
narrative-driven discourses and elevate audience costs. Leader pledges (IE。,
the conventional audience-cost argument) can matter, 然后, but only if they
are linked to prevailing narratives. Regardless of their contributions to the
过程, democratic leaders worry about future elections or their broader
policy agendas (IE。, the potential political consequences of elevated audience
成本) when facing robust, narrative-based discourses. 最后, 领导者
usually bring policy in line with the narrative discourses that agents build
他们周围.
For starters, I assume that at any major policy decision point, both promot-
ers and moderators will be present to advocate their different positions. Lib-
eral war continuation (and expansion) is most likely when a strong liberal
narrative develops at key decision points in a conºict. 这里, a robust lib-
eral narrative (意义, 再次, an elevated national passion to protect liberal
order abroad) augments promoter arguments. This gives promoters a special
hearing with the public and in policy debates generally.44 Promoters know this
and use the liberal narrative to create (or policymakers fear they will create)
broad public movements, which raises audience costs of inaction. In wartime,
military leaders are often also promoters, and strategic narratives tip the civil-
military balance in their favor. Civilian leaders who do not support continuing
or expanding military action fear losing future elections or policy goals, 和
thus some bring their policies in line with promoters’ arguments. 其他的
get “pushed to act” against their better judgment to continue or expand lib-
eral wars.
有时, these reluctant leaders ironically help create the strong liberal
discourses that later push them along. 在里面 1960 总统竞选,
President John F. Kennedy intentionally took a tough position against Fidel
Castro’s communist regime in Cuba to enhance his anti-communist credentials
with voters. This stance helped Kennedy win the White House, 但它也
43. On discourses, see Stephen Ellingson, “Understanding the Dialectic of Discourse and Collec-
tive Action: Public Debate and Rioting in Antebellum Cincinnati,” 美国社会学杂志,
卷. 101, 不. 1 (1995), p. 107, https://doi.org/10.1086/230700.
44. On ideas augmenting agents, see Stacie E. Goddard, “The Rhetoric of Appeasement: Hitler’s
Legitimation and British Foreign Policy, 1938–39,” Security Studies, Vo. 24, 不. 1 (2015), PP. 95–130,
https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2015.1001216.
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叙事与战争 105
boxed him in once in ofªce. As promoters in Congress built a robust discourse
around anti-communism for a tough policy in 1961, the political costs of look-
ing weak on communism proved too high for Kennedy to pursue his preferred
course of normalizing relations with Castro’s regime. 这 1961 Bay of Pigs in-
vasion followed.45
Liberal wars end as liberal discourse weakens. Because of a national sense of
lost purpose, moderator appeals (which often come from civilians in wartime)
resonate more in policy debates as the liberal narrative weakens. Promoter ar-
guments tend to appear odd, 相比之下, maybe even extreme. 最后,
promoters often go quiet, especially in public.46 In this scenario, leaders face
lower audience costs of inaction, and they may in fact perceive higher audi-
ence costs of action given the absence of a national passion for war. In this lat-
ter scenario, leaders worry about the domestic political dangers of carrying on
or expanding the war. 因此, a weak liberal discourse allows leaders who
prefer ending a liberal war to do so, and it pushes those leaders who prefer to
continue ªghting to instead phase down or end military action. During the
1990s, moderators inside President Bill Clinton’s administration repeatedly
pointed to ºagging public support for things like democracy building and hu-
manitarian intervention (IE。, a weak liberal discourse).47 This discourse con-
strained military options for Clinton, especially in the Balkans, throughout
his administration.48
方法
I combine congruence and comparative case study methods to test the
strategic-narrative argument in decisions for troop increases in Afghanistan by
奥巴马 (2009) and Trump (2017) against Biden’s decision to withdraw (2021).49
For space reasons and because Biden made the ªnal decision, I devote less at-
tention to Trump’s 2020 pledge to withdraw. The cases are good for compari-
45. Jim Rasenberger, The Brilliant Disaster: JFK, Castro, and America’s Doomed Invasion of Cuba’s Bay
of Pigs (纽约: Scribner, 2011), p. 92. The narrative made Kennedy’s campaign pledge salient—
no narrative discourses, no audience costs.
46. For more on these choices, see Walldorf, To Shape Our World for Good, PP. 35–36.
47. Julian E. Zelizer, Arsenal of Democracy: The Politics of National Security—From World War II to the
War on Terrorism (纽约: 基础书籍, 2012), PP. 386–390, 401–405, 422–425.
48. Sarah E. Kreps, “这 1994 Haiti Intervention: A Unilateral Operation in Multilateral Clothes,”
Journal of Strategic Studies, 卷. 30, 不. 3 (2007), PP. 449–474, https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390701
343441.
49. Derek Beach and Rasmus Brun Pedersen, Causal Case Study Methods: Foundations and Guidelines
for Comparing, Matching, and Tracing (安娜堡: University of Michigan Press, 2016), PP. 227–301.
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国际安全 47:1 106
儿子, holding several background factors constant, such as war (阿富汗)
and period (post-9/11). The Obama-Biden cases are especially good for com-
parison because they share a common policy approach and party afªliation,
but they lead to different outcomes. Outcome variation avoids sampling on the
dependent variable.
Tautology is a pitfall for any ideational argument. To avoid this, I use a
method of symbolic structuring of discourse to assess narrative strength and
its component parts (IE。, severity and frequency) at time t-1, meaning inde-
pendent of and prior to the decision-making process.50 Narrative strength is
measured in each case study using content analysis of newspaper editorials
and the Congressional Record (see the online appendix), along with secondary
sources and public opinion polls. Editorials reºect the collective national dis-
cussion across the country around speciªc events at speciªc points in time.
最后, they are a well-established tool for measuring collective ideas,
like narratives. Scholars ªnd that patterns in the Congressional Record do the
same—in a mutually constitutive way, authoritative actors both reºect and
help reinforce prevailing narrative trends in any given period.51
For the Afghan cases, I ªrst scanned the historical record for geostrategic
gains that were likely to reach the threshold of severity required to spark
trauma and the initial narrative-making process. 最为显着地, examples in-
clude any attacks by an illiberal actor on the United States or other liberal
states that caused civilian casualties or threatened to spread illiberalism. 秒-
另一, and most importantly for the strategic-narrative argument in this article,
I then scanned the historical record beyond the initial trauma for any similar
follow-on severe attacks. If the strategic-narrative argument is correct, 这
above measures should demonstrate that a direct attack on the United States,
or a series of indirect attacks on strategic partners (IE。, severity), 打开(s) 空间
for promoters and generates a new liberal narrative centered on existential
danger, blame, and a lesson to get active abroad against a speciªc foe. Like-
明智的, these measures should also show that a follow-on attack (IE。, 频率)
reinforces and sustains the narrative. 特别是, patterns of discourse in con-
gressional and editorial commentary will typically show extensive references
50. Jeffrey K. Olick, The Politics of Regret: On Collective Memory and Historical Responsibility (新的
约克: 劳特利奇, 2007), p. 22.
51. 例如, see Jeffrey W. Legro, “Whence American Internationalism,” International Organi-
扎化, 卷. 54, 不. 2 (2000), p. 256, https://doi.org/10.1162/002081800551172; Krebs, Narrative
and the Making of U.S. 国家安全, PP. 195–197; and Walldorf, To Shape Our World for Good,
PP. 48–52. Unless otherwise noted, editorial (upwards of sixty different newspapers nationwide)
and Congressional Record surveys span ten days after major events. See the online appendix.
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叙事与战争 107
to existential danger and the need to get active, and they will link present
severe events to those in the past, especially at the narrative founding. 第二-
ary sources and polls will show the same pattern.52
另一方面, if severity and frequency are low in a given period—
owing to the defeat of an ideological rival (IE。, positive event) or scarcity of
direct/indirect attacks (IE。, absence of negative events) by a rival for at least
two or three years—there should be less discussion in editorials and the
Congressional Record about an ideological foe compared with periods marked
by narrative robustness. 同样地, talk of existential danger, blame, 和
lesson to protect liberal order abroad should be substantially less than in peri-
ods of a robust liberal narrative. Polls and scholarly or pundit assessments in
secondary sources will validate this outcome.
最后, using a singular type of congruence test, I explore narrative dis-
courses and their impact (如果有的话) on decisions to continue, expand, or end war.
If the strategic-narrative argument is correct, assessments by pundits, 内存-
oirs, and the like should show how narrative-based discourses affected policy
decisions in predicted ways. When the liberal discourse is robust, various ac-
托尔斯 (especially leaders) should talk about the domestic pressure to continue
military action or the domestic costs of withdrawal. But when the discourse is
weak, they should talk about domestic costs to maintain military action or po-
litical space to retrench from conºicts abroad.53
The Narrative Emerges and Settles In
The September 11 terrorist attacks dramatically reversed the weak liberal nar-
rative environment of the early post–Cold War period.54 “This week’s frontal
assault on America is a collective trauma unlike any other in any of our life-
次,” observed the San Francisco Chronicle.55 “A new narrative literally fell
from the sky on September 11” and “became embedded in the popular imagi-
国家,” noted a pair of scholars.56 Almost everyone became a promoter. 作为
52. Because the point at which public opinion polls capture collective ideas such as narratives is
uncertain, I follow the lead of other ideational scholars and use polls in tandem with established
measures of collective ideas (例如, editorials). See Olick, The Politics of Regret, p. 22; Legro, “Whence
American Internationalism,” p. 280; Goddard, “The Rhetoric of Appeasement,” PP. 121, 125; 和
Krebs, Narrative and the Making of U.S. 国家安全, PP. 135–136.
53. Beach and Pedersen, Causal Case Study Methods, PP. 286–287.
54. Walldorf, To Shape Our World for Good, PP. 167–198.
55. “Time Out to Deal with Trauma,” San Francisco Chronicle, 九月 13, 2001.
56. Amy Zalman and Jonathan Clarke, “The Global War on Terror: A Narrative in Need of a Re-
写,” Ethics and International Affairs, 卷. 23, 不. 2 (2009), p. 101, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-
7093.2009.00201.X.
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国际安全 47:1 108
anticipated when external trauma arises from a direct attack, the story imme-
diately saturated the public discourse—print media, 电视, members of
国会, and eventually in statements by President George W. 衬套. 这
story included all standard parts of a national security narrative: detailing
events existentially, assigning blame, and setting a way forward to repair (IE。,
lesson). Members of Congress repeatedly framed events in existential terms, 作为
an attack on “our laws, our cherished beliefs.”57 “This is war,” declared House
Majority Leader Dick Gephardt (D-MO), just after the attack.58 Newspapers
across the country echoed the same themes, as did polls in late September:
58 percent of Americans wanted “a long-term war”; 73 percent supported
ground troops to “combat international terrorism.”59
在随后的岁月里, the frequency of severe attacks remained high
and reinforced the liberal narrative. Targets included, to name a few, Kuwait
(2002), Bali (2002, 2005), Mombasa (2002), Riyadh (2003), Casablanca (2003),
Istanbul (2003), Madrid (2004), 伦敦 (2005), Algiers (2007), 以及无数的
bombings in Iraq and Afghanistan starting in 2004.60 These events (尤其
against liberal or liberalizing allies in Europe and Iraq) sparked fervent na-
tional discussions in the United States.
Most speciªcally, the salience of promoter narratives about existential dan-
蒙古包, parallels to 9/11, and the lesson to ªght terrorism increased dramatically.
Bush framed the 2005 London terrorist attack as an assault on “human lib-
erty.”61 Of Madrid, Secretary of State Colin Powell said that the bombing
should “redouble everyone’s efforts” to go after terrorists.62 As anticipated by
trauma theory, every congressional statement in the two weeks after the
Madrid and London attacks described them in existential terms, which both
reºected and revalidated the robust
liberal narrative. “Americans were
. when terror struck the capital of the United
shocked and dismayed .
.
57. Congresswoman Lee (D-CA), speaking on H.J. Res 64, 107th Cong., 1st sess., 2001, 卷. 147,
点. 12, p. 16774.
58. Representative Gephardt (D-MO), speaking on H.J. Res. 64, 107th Cong., 1st sess., 2001,
卷. 147, 点. 12, p. 16763.
59. “Harris Interactive Survey #07: 恐怖主义,” Harris Interactive, September 27–28, 2001, iRoper
中心, https://ropercenter.cornell.edu; and “Wirthlin Worldwide Poll: September 2001,” Wirthlin
全世界, September 21–26, 2001, iRoper Center, https://ropercenter.cornell.edu.
60. “Timeline—Major Attacks by al Qaeda,” 路透社, 可能 2, 2011, https://www.reuters.com/
article/idINIndia-56711920110502. Several bombs targeted commuters on the London transit sys-
TEM, killing more than 50 and injuring approximately 700. The Madrid bombings occurred on four
commuter trains, killing nearly 200 and injuring approximately 1,800.
61. “Terrorists Win If We Give into Fear,” Cincinnati Enquirer, 七月 8, 2005.
62. “Editorial,” Journal and Courant [印第安纳州], 行进 16, 2004.
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叙事与战争 109
王国, the cradle of Western liberty,” one said of London.63 “The free na-
tions of the world will . . . ensure that those who hate freedom and liberty will
not succeed,” said another of Madrid.64 Likewise, no one framed these as iso-
lated, disconnected events, but instead linked them together as “reminders”
和, with that, extensions of September 11 and the anti-terrorism narrative.
Many talked of how Americans did and should look “through the prism” of
九月 11 to make sense of Bali, Madrid, 伦敦, Istanbul, and the like.
“No American will ever forget the infamous day of 9/11,” a member of
Congress said of Madrid.65 Finally, promoters stressed that these events sup-
ported the lesson to press on in the ªght against terrorism. It was like a drum-
打
terrorism”; “renew our
determination to eradicate terrorism”; “dismantle the al Qaeda network”; “re-
main deªant in the face of terrorism.”66
领导者: “stand ªrm against
from political
Like the days after 9/11, promoter appeals resonated and echoed nationally,
pointing to the continued strength and vitality of the anti-terrorism narrative
into the late 2000s. This was evident in two ways. 第一的, it showed up in news-
papers across the country, from big cities to small towns. Content analysis of
seventy-two editorials in the ten days after the Madrid bombings found that
54 percent of the papers described the attacks in existential terms related to de-
民主, liberty, freedom, or civilization; 64 percent drew parallels between
the bombing and other recent terrorist attacks, 尤其 9/11; 和 70 百分
referenced the central lesson of the narrative to actively stamp out terrorism
国外. The same was the case with editorials following the London bomb-
英格斯: 63 percent were existential; 71 percent were connected to 9/11 or other
恐怖袭击; 和 73 percent referenced the lesson to remain or become
more active abroad to ªght terrorism.67
Take a Wall Street Journal editorial, 例如, about Madrid. “So much
63. Congressman Hyde (R-IL), 109th Cong., 1st sess., Congressional Record, 卷. 151 (七月 13, 2005),
p. H5766.
64. Congressman Linder (R-GA), 97th Cong., 2nd sess., Congressional Record, 卷. 150 (行进 11,
2004), p. E354.
65. Congresswoman Jackson Lee (D-TX), 97th Cong, 2nd sess., Congressional Record, 卷. 150
(行进 16, 2004), p. H1906.
66. Congressman Gingrey (R-GA), Congressman Lantos (D-CA), and Congressman Royce
(R-CA), 109th Cong., 1st sess., Congressional Record, 卷. 151 (七月 13, 2005), PP. H5746 and H5766;
and Senator McConnell (R-KY), 109th Cong., 1st sess., Congressional Record, 卷. 151 (七月 11, 2005),
p. S7946.
67. ProQuest search, “Madrid AND bomb*,” March 11–21, 2004, 氮(西德:2)72, 37 报纸; 和
ProQuest search, “London AND bomb*,” July 7–17, 2005, 氮(西德:2)100, 53 报纸. See the online
appendix.
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国际安全 47:1 110
for the illusion that the global war on terror isn’t really a war,” noted the edi-
托尔斯, “That complacent notion which has been inªltrating its way into the
American public mind, blew up along with 10 bombs on trains carrying
Spanish commuters yesterday.” The editors then listed eleven other attacks—
including September 11—to draw attention to the existential danger that “ter-
rorism remains the single largest threat to Western freedom and security.”68
Headlines around the Madrid, 伦敦, and Bali bombings were similar: “这
Week,
‘Madrid Became Manhattan’”; “Ground Zero, Madrid”; “Terror in
伦敦: A Reminder to the World that War of 9/11 Is Not Over.”69 A total of
56 percent of Americans agreed that the London attacks showed that “it is nec-
essary to ªght the war against the terrorists in Iraq and everywhere else.”70
A second indicator of narrative strength was the extent to which both Demo-
crats and Republicans used the narrative as a political battering ram by the late
2000s. The Bush White House had long painted political opponents as weak on
terrorism to win votes.71 By 2006, with al-Qaeda gaining new ground in Iraq
(where the United States was deeply invested in trying to build a liberal demo-
cratic government), Republicans doubled down on this message, saying that
Democratic proposals for withdrawal from Iraq would aid terrorists. “If we
were to follow the proposals of Democratic leaders,” said one Republican
(GOP) House member in a 2007 debate on a resolution opposing the Iraq troop
涌, “anarchy in Iraq would give al Qaeda and other extremists a haven to
train and plot attacks.”72 Thirty-nine other Republicans (73 percent of GOP
speakers) echoed the same that day. Many senior Democrats also used the
anti-terrorism narrative as a counterpunch. “Fighting terrorism, ªghting ex-
tremism . . . is weakened by our being in Iraq,” said Representative Barney
Frank (D-MA); “it has emboldened radicals everywhere.”73 Others noted simi-
68. “Spain’s 3/11: A Horrifying Reminder that the War on Terror Is Not Over,” Wall Street Journal,
行进 12, 2004.
69. “This Week, ‘Madrid Became Manhattan,’” San Antonio Express, 行进 13, 2004; “Ground
Zero, Madrid,“ 纽约时报, 行进 12, 2004; and “Terror in London: A Reminder to the World
that War of 9/11 Is Not Over,” San Francisco Chronicle, 七月 8, 2005.
70. “Fox News Poll: July 2005,” Fox News, July 13–15, iRoper Center, https://ropercenter.cornell
.edu.
71. Peter Baker, Days of Fire: Bush and Cheney in the White House (纽约: Anchor, 2013), PP. 428–
430.
72. Congressman Westmoreland (R-GA), speaking on H. 骗局. Res. 63, 111th Cong., 1st sess., 骗局-
gressional Record, 卷. 153 (二月 16, 2007), p. H1797.
73. Congressman Frank (D-MA), H. 骗局. Res. 63, 111th Cong., 1st sess., Congressional Record,
卷. 153 (二月 16, 2007), PP. H1797–1798.
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叙事与战争 111
larly how Bush “distracted us from the real war on terror” and “weakened our
ªght against al Qaeda.”74
Afghanistan played a big part
in these Democratic counterpunches
around terrorism, especially after a 2007 National Intelligence Estimate
showed that the Taliban/al-Qaeda had made signiªcant gains there. Demo-
cratic calls to “refocus” the war on terrorism invariably meant moving at-
tention to Afghanistan.75 Senator and presidential candidate Barack Obama
(D-IL) led the way.76 “We must get off the wrong battleªeld,” Obama charged
in an August 2007 speech, before committing to send two additional divisions
to Afghanistan.77 The speech was intentional, meant to counter charges from
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) in a July presidential primary debate that
Obama was weak on foreign policy. Cognizant of how Bush successfully
painted rival presidential candidate John Kerry as “weak” on terrorism in
2004, political strategist David Axelrod hatched the idea of the August
speech.78 “Outºanking Bush-Cheney with a serious, aggressive, 聪明的
campaign against Islamist terror?” said a pair of observers, “It’s what the
country wants. And it seems to be what Obama is offering.”79
全面的, Obama’s August 2007 move reºected the strength of the liberal nar-
rative around terrorism in the late 2000s. It also fueled a narrative-based dis-
course that constrained Obama throughout his presidency.
obama’s ªrst troop surge
When President Obama took ofªce in 2009, a request for additional troops for
Afghanistan was on his desk.80 Obama initially hesitated. “I have campaigned
on providing Afghanistan more troops,” he said in a January 23 国家的
Security Council (NSC) 会议, “but I haven’t made the decision yet.” Sup-
ported by Vice President Joe Biden and other civilian moderators in the White
房子, Obama expressed doubts about escalation, blocked a move by military
74. Congressman Waxman (D-CA) and Congresswoman Clarke (D-NY), H. 骗局. Res. 63, 111th
Cong., 1st sess., Congressional Record, 卷. 153 (二月 16, 2007), PP. H1810, H1812.
75. Congressman Becerra (D-CA), H. 骗局. Res. 63, 111th Cong., 1st sess., Congressional Record,
卷. 153 (二月 16, 2007), p. H1797.
76. Derek Chollet, The Long Game: How Obama Deªed Washington and Redeªned America’s Role in the
世界 (纽约: Public Affairs, 2016), p. 68; and Barack Obama, A Promised Land (纽约:
Crown, 2020), PP. 48, 83–89. Terrorism connected with voters, Obama said.
77. Dan Balz, “Obama Says He Would Take Fight to Pakistan,” Washington Post, 八月 2, 2007.
78. Ben Rhodes, The World as It Is: A Memoir of the Obama White House (纽约: Random, 2018),
PP. 8, 12–15.
79. Tim O’Brien and S. Writer, “The Blog House,” Star Tribune [明尼阿波利斯], 八月 4, 2007.
80. Bob Woodward, Obama’s Wars (纽约: 西蒙和舒斯特, 2010), p. 70.
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国际安全 47:1 112
leaders to add troops without his approval, and commissioned former NSC
staffer Bruce Riedel to conduct a review of Afghan policy, after which Obama
would decide on troops.81
Moderators failed, 然而. Animated by the cascade of narrative-
validating terror attacks, a surging liberal discourse prevented Obama from
maintaining this wait and see approach, pushing him to approve 17,000 更多的
troops for Afghanistan in mid-February 2009, well before the completed
review. Combined with the president’s campaign pledges, public support for
the troop request by promoters—like Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff—ignited an expansive national discussion for more action. 在
editorials, 70 percent supported more troops, 85 percent discussed combating
恐怖主义 (IE。, the narrative’s lesson), 和 40 percent mentioned Obama’s cam-
paign pledges.82 The Washington Post criticized Obama for wafºing on his
campaign promises: “The war on terrorism did not end on January 20
[Obama’s Inauguration Day].”83 Polls showed that 70 受访者百分比
expected Afghanistan to fall under “the control of terrorists” if the United
States left; 63 percent favored more troops.84 Deputy National Security
Advisor for Strategic Communications Ben Rhodes bemoaned the “political
drama” and the fact that “the media started calling Afghanistan ‘Obama’s
War.’”85 The White House saw costs of inaction rising.
Promoters inside the administration elevated these costs too.
在里面
一月 23 NSC meeting, General David Petraeus, commander of U.S.
Central Command, said that failure was coming in Afghanistan and that
al-Qaeda would gain ground: “we cannot achieve our objective without more
troops.” Mullen echoed the same.86 Obama knew the political risks. Just
ten days prior, Senator Graham had warned Obama that Republicans would
use failure in Afghanistan in the 2010 midterms. During a February 13
会议, advisers gave Obama two options: wait on Riedel’s report or add
17,000 troops. Promoters (including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton) harped
81. 同上。, PP. 79–89.
82. ProQuest search, “Afghanistan,” January 20–February 22, 2009, 氮(西德:2)20, 20 报纸.
83. “The Afghan Challenge,” Washington Post, 一月 29, 2009.
84. Lymari Morales, “Americans See Afghanistan as Still Worth Fighting,” Gallup, 二月 19,
2009,
https://news.gallup.com/poll/115270/Americans-Afghanistan-War-Worth-Fighting.aspx;
and “Barack Obama and Congress/Economy/War on Terrorism,” 美国有线电视新闻网, February 18–19, 2009,
iRoper Center, https://ropercenter.cornell.edu.
85. Rhodes, The World as It Is, p. 62.
86. 伍德沃德, Obama’s Wars, p. 80.
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叙事与战争 113
to counterterrorism; 63 的百分比
on narrative themes: a “bloodbath” for al-Qaeda without more troops.87 The
domestic fallout of that happening was simply too high. “For practical and
political purposes there really was no choice [italics added],” observed Bob
Woodward.88 Four days later, Obama publicly justiªed more troops as being
the electorate approved.89 Like
vital
伍德沃德, the New York Times concluded that Obama “had no choice” given
what he said “during the campaign.” In short, Obama’s opportunistic use of
the anti-terrorism narrative during the 2008 presidential campaign fueled a ro-
bust liberal discourse and high audience costs of inaction that forced his hand
二月里 2009.90
obama and the second troop surge
在六月 2009, National Security Advisor James Logan Jones Jr. told General
Stanley McChrystal, the head of military operations in Afghanistan, 那
president wanted to “reduce U.S. involvement” and shift to an aid-based strat-
egy.91 Eight weeks later, McChrystal requested an additional 40,000 troops as
part of a report assessing the situation in Afghanistan. When Secretary of
Defense Robert Gates informed the president, “the room exploded” in opposi-
tion.92 Moderators in the White House warned Obama that he had pledged to
end the Middle East wars.93 “I shared Joe’s [Biden] skepticism,” Obama said as
he pushed back against more troops. There “are no good options,” he noted in
a September 12 NSC meeting.94
到底, moderators lost again. As in February, the president capitulated
to the anti-terrorism narrative pressure. In early September 2009, promoters
generated a robust liberal discourse for more troops, arguing that fail-
ure risked another September 11. Frustrated by Obama’s hesitancy, 军队
leaders—namely, Petraeus, Mullen, and McChrystal—played a critical role by
87. 同上。, PP. 96–98; and Robert M. Gates, Duty: Memoirs of a Secretary at War (纽约: 优质的,
2015), PP. 337–340.
88. 伍德沃德, Obama’s Wars, p. 96.
89. Karen DeYoung, “Obama Ok’s Adding Troops in Afghanistan,” Boston Globe, 二月 18,
2009; and “Barack Obama and Congress/Economy/War on Terrorism,” 美国有线电视新闻网, February 18–19,
2009, iRoper Center, https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/.
90. “Salvaging Afghanistan,“ 纽约时报, 二月 20, 2009.
91. 伍德沃德, Obama’s Wars, PP. 134–135.
92. Gates, Duty: Memoirs, PP. 349–350.
93. This pledge was not linked to the robust liberal narrative; 因此, there were no audience costs
and little policy salience.
94. 奥巴马, A Promised Land, PP. 432–433; and Woodward, Obama’s Wars, PP. 167–169.
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国际安全 47:1 114
going public to use the robust anti-terrorism narrative to their advantage
(which augmented their position in policy debates, as the strategic-narrative
argument expects). The move was calculated. In a late August meeting on han-
dling White House resistance to more troops, Senator Graham (while on air
force reserve duty in Afghanistan) told Petraeus and McChrystal that their
messaging focused too much on the Taliban. “America is worried all about al
Qaeda attacking,” he counseled, “Americans understand that the Taliban are
bad guys, but what drives the American psyche more than anything else is,
are we about to let the country that attacked us once attack us twice?”95 In
short, Graham counseled the generals to use the anti-terrorism narrative to
their political advantage.
The generals complied, now focusing their message on al-Qaeda, new at-
tacks, and the potential for “failure” without more troops.96 Petraeus warned
publicly that the Afghan government would collapse without a fully re-
sourced counterinsurgency.97 On September 15 (just three days after Obama’s
“no good options” comment), Mullen told Congress that success in
Afghanistan required more troops. A few days later, the Washington Post re-
ported on a leaked copy of the McChrystal report in a front-page article ti-
tled “McChrystal: More Forces or ‘Mission Failure.’” The sixty-six-page
report mentioned “failure” or “defeat” fourteen times.98 Finally, McChrystal
said publicly that he rarely spoke directly with Obama and that another
九月 11 would come without additional resolve.99 Obama looked weak
and out of touch.
正如预期的那样, these moves fueled a powerful liberal discourse across the
country for more troops in Afghanistan. From mid-September to mid-October,
71 percent of statements on Capitol Hill about Afghanistan mentioned com-
ments by the generals, 和 88 percent of supporters of more force warned of
another September 11: “Afghanistan is where the attacks of 9/11 originated”
and “the sacriªces we make overseas now will prevent another 9/11-style at-
tack here at home.”100 Promoters in Congress attacked Obama’s hesitancy to
95. 伍德沃德, Obama’s Wars, PP. 155–156.
96. 同上。, p. 156.
97. Michael Gerson, “In Afghanistan, No Choices but to Try,” Washington Post, 九月 4, 2009.
98. Bob Woodward, “McChrystal: More Forces or ‘Mission Failure,’” Washington Post, 塞普滕-
误码率 21, 2009.
99. 伍德沃德, Obama’s Wars, PP. 158, 172, 180–181, 193.
100. Senator Lieberman (D-CT), 113th Cong., 1st sess., Congressional Record, 卷. 155 (九月 6,
2009), p. S9471; and Congressman Stearns (R-FL), speaking on Cong. Res. 155, 113th Cong.,
1st sess., Congressional Record, 卷. 155 (九月 22, 2009), p. H9742.
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叙事与战争 115
uphold his March pledge to “disrupt, dismantle and defeat al Qaeda” follow-
ing Riedel’s review.101 “Soft-peddling . . . 在阿富汗,” said one; 奥巴马的
“latest verbal wavering aided terrorists,” said another.102
Editorials showed similar trends. In the two months prior to Obama’s deci-
sion to send troops, 72 percent mentioned the generals, while nearly 80 百分
commented on a liberal narrative of either avoiding another September 11 或者
ªghting against terrorism in Afghanistan. “Afghanistan served as al-Qaeda’s
根据,” noted one paper.103 Fifty-eight percent endorsed more troops.104 Many
critiqued Obama for hesitating and accused him of “second thoughts,” “full
retreat,” “Afghan rethink,” “blinking,” “appeasement,” and labeled him a
“coward.”105 Opinion polls reºected these narrative trends. In September and
十月 2009, 58 percent of editorials considered ªghting in Afghanistan to be
“necessary to protect Americans from having to ªght terrorists on U.S. soil,”
和 62 percent trusted the generals more than Obama. Obama’s approval on
Afghanistan fell to 36 百分, down from 63 percent in April.106
For Obama, the liberal discourse elevated the costs of inaction, which drove
his decision to increase troops. 第一的, this discourse reinforced what he already
知道: 政治上, he could not afford to “lose” Afghanistan and risk another
九月 11. Promoters inside the government hammered this theme. “我们
were surprised once on 9/11,” Riedel told Obama, following his review (哪个
endorsed more troops). “It’s going to be pretty hard to explain what happened
to the American people if we’re surprised again,” he added.107 Following a
101. “President Obama’s Remarks on a New Strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan,” New York
时代, 行进 27, 2009.
102. Congressman Johnson (D-TX), speaking on Cong. Res. 155, 113th Cong., 1st sess., Congressio-
nal Record, 卷. 155 (九月 23, 2009), p. H9810; and Senator Bond, 113th Cong., 1st sess., 骗局-
gressional Record, 卷. 155 (九月 24, 2009), p. S9766.
103. “Let Mission Dictate,” Orlando Sentinel, 十月 8, 2009.
104. 仅有的 19 percent opposed additional troops. ProQuest search, “Afghanistan,” August 1–
十月 15, 2009, 氮(西德:2)95, 55 报纸.
105. “Wavering on Afghanistan?” Washington Post, 九月 22, 2009; “Obama and the General,”
Wall Street Journal, 十月 7, 2009; “Not Just ‘More Troops,’” St. Louis Post-Dispatch, 十月 7,
2009; and “Our View: Peace Laureate Must Rethink War,” Santa Fe New Mexican, 十月 10, 2009.
106. “Fox News Opinion Dynamics,” Fox News, September 15–16, 2009, https://www.foxnews
.com/projects/pdf/092109_poll1.pdf; “NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll,” NBC/Wall Street Jour-
纳尔, October 2–4, 2009, iRoper Center, https://ropercenter.cornell.edu; “A Year Out, Widespread
Anti-Incumbent Sentiment,” Pew Research Center, 十一月 11, 2009, https://www.pewresearch
.org/politics/2009/11/11/a-year-out-widespread-anti-incumbent-sentiment/;
“4/27: Majority
Approves of Obama’s Job Performance,” Marist Poll, 四月 27, 2009, http://maristpoll.marist.edu/
427-majority-approves-of-obamas-job-performance/; and Woodward, Obama’s Wars, p. 248.
107. Cited in Woodward, Obama’s Wars, PP. 105–106.
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国际安全 47:1 116
May brieªng on al-Qaeda, Obama noted that even minor attacks would have
“an extraordinarily traumatizing effect on the homeland.”108
Costs of inaction were also evident in a September 12 NSC meeting, 哪个
was the ªrst such meeting about McChrystal’s report. The political implica-
tions of McChrystal’s “failure” warning shaped the debate. Despite his hesi-
tancy, Obama admitted that he could not “reject McChrystal’s plan out of
hand” because the “status quo was untenable” and that more time was needed
to “root out al-Qaeda and its leadership.”109 When Biden warned that Obama
would politically own the war, the president snapped, “I already own it.”
Thinking of his reelection timetable, Obama then asked if progress was possi-
ble within three years.110 An aide noted that the broader narrative discourse—
especially charges of wafºing on terrorism—ampliªed political concerns like
Riedel’s warning that Obama alone would “take the blame for any bad out-
comes.”111 “Why is the whole thing framed around whether I have any balls?”
Obama asked aides.112 The robust liberal discourse was on his mind.
The discourse-generated costs of
inaction also drastically narrowed
Obama’s options. Obama was keenly aware of the importance of the public
话语, saying that he wanted the decision to be made behind closed doors,
away from “congressional politics and media grousing,” so that he could con-
sider all options. He then became enraged at military leaders’ public com-
评论. 为什么? Because the warnings of failure and another September 11
reinforced the anti-terrorism narrative—what Obama referred to as the na-
tional “impulse after 9/11 to do whatever it took to stop terrorists”—in ways
that “boxed him in.”113 He talked about this repeatedly at the time and later
admitted to feeling “jammed.” Obama told aides in early October, “They’re
about to ask for a game-changing number and they’re going to the public and
to trap us.”114 Obama was stuck. Fearful of narrative-based
leaking it
pushback, he could not demote or ªre the generals. 实际上, just the opposite.
Concerned about the political costs of doing otherwise, Obama included
Petraeus in all NSC meetings on Afghanistan from late September onward.115
108. Cited in ibid., p. 123.
109. 同上。, PP. 161–163; and Obama, A Promised Land, p. 433.
110. Cited in Woodward, Obama’s Wars, PP. 161–168.
111. Rhodes, The World as It Is, PP. 66–67.
112. 同上。, p. 76.
113. 奥巴马, A Promised Land, PP. 433, 436.
114. 伍德沃德, Obama’s Wars, p. 195. See also Gates, Duty: Memoirs, p. 378; and Goldberg, “这
Obama Doctrine,” p. 75.
115. 伍德沃德, Obama’s Wars, p. 186.
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叙事与战争 117
Moderators knew that the liberal discourse reduced their traction. “It’s go-
ing to be the lead story on the evening news . . . [和] double black headlines
above the fold on every single newspaper,” said Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel
about Mullen’s September 15 congressional testimony. Emanuel also com-
plained constantly to Gates about Obama feeling boxed in. Gates agreed, call-
ing McChrystal’s leaked report “a political bombshell” that narrowed
Obama’s options.116 In the end, efforts by the White House to counter the lib-
eral discourse failed. Rhodes confessed that amid the wave of “public pres-
sure” generated by the military promoters, “it felt as though I had little ability
to control anything other than the inevitable speech that Obama would give”
on increasing U.S. troops in Afghanistan.117
十月, Obama agreed to add troops. Central Intelligence Agency (中央情报局)
Director Leon Panetta set the course of a debate on October 9. A seasoned poli-
tician, Panetta noted the “political reality” created by the robust liberal narra-
主动的: “We can’t leave, and we can’t accept the status quo.”118 He proposed
increasing troops narrowly targeted at al-Qaeda, not nation-building. Gates
同意, saying that “the public and the politicians could easily understand”
that mission, meaning that it ªt well with the robust anti-terrorism narra-
tive.119 Obama capitulated.120 His second decision to expand the U.S. war in
Afghanistan was set.121
The Narrative Peaks
这 2011 killing of al-Qaeda’s leader, Osama bin Laden, was viewed across the
United States as a major victory in the ªght against terrorism (IE。, a positive
event in the trauma framework). Combined with the quelling of terrorist activ-
ity in Iraq from the so-called Sunni Awakening (IE。, decreased negative
事件), the frequency and severity of trauma-generating events declined into
the early 2010s. As expected by the strategic-narrative argument, the anti-
terrorism narrative weakened, especially around Iraq. Counter to the interests
of military leaders, President Obama found political space at home to sum-
116. Gates, Duty: Memoirs, PP. 368–369.
117. Rhodes, The World as It Is, PP. 73–75.
118. 伍德沃德, Obama’s Wars, p. 247; and Leon Panetta, Worthy Fights: A Memoir of Leadership in
War and Peace (纽约: 企鹅, 2015), PP. 253–255.
119. Cited in Gates, Duty: Memoirs, p. 375.
120. 伍德沃德, Obama’s Wars, p. 224.
121. 同上。, PP. 224–420.
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国际安全 47:1 118
marily withdraw all forces from Iraq (a decision that 71 percent of Americans
agreed with) and worked to re-narrate the terror challenge as nonexistential,
something to which Americans had overreacted.122
This initiative to change the narrative was largely ineffective, 尽管,
especially from mid-2014 onward when the swift rise of the Islamic State
re-traumatized the United States. Mirroring the ªrst decade of the 2000s, 这
liberal narrative again surged. The trauma began in June when ISIS forces
seized Mosul (Iraq’s second largest city) and Tikrit, declared a caliphate
across Syria and Iraq, and later beheaded two U.S. 记者, James Foley and
Steven Sotloff. Obama acknowledged the need to respond but also worked to
calm the nation.123
最后, other leading ªgures (mostly Republicans) began to refer
back to the prevailing anti-terrorism story that proved the right ªt for the
event-driven context of external trauma. “The next 9/11 is in the making as
I speak,” said Senator Graham in June.124 More than half of congressional ºoor
statements described ISIS in existential terms.125 Many Democrats joined the
chorus. “ISIS violates everything we believe in,” noted Representative James
Moran (D-VA), “They are opposed to democratic governance and, 当然, 到
an inclusive society.”126 Promoters in Congress nested the 2014 events within
the larger story. More than half referenced September 11 and other attacks such
as those in London and Madrid. The narrative’s lesson was strong too; 76 每-
cent of congressional speakers discussed the need to confront/destroy ISIS.
“We need to do everything we can together to ensure that ISIS will be
stopped,” said Senator Chris Coons (D-DE).127 Blame was also evident. 更多的
than half of all congressional statements (and approximately 80 的百分比
GOP statements) criticized both the Iraq troop withdrawal as well as
Obama calling ISIS the “jayvee [junior varsity] team” of terrorism and ad-
122. “Gingrich Is New Fave, Voters Approve of Iraq Withdrawal, President Beats All Comers,”
PublicMind Poll, Fairleigh Dickinson University, 十二月 7, 2011, http://publicmind.fdu.edu/
2011/newfave/; and Krebs, “Pity the President,” p. 37.
123. 巴拉克奥巴马, “Statement by the President on ISIL,” statement on the state ºoor in
华盛顿, 华盛顿特区, 九月 10, 2014, White House, Ofªce of the Press Secretary, https://
obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-ofªce/2014/09/10/Statement-president-isil-1; and Gold-
伯格, “The Obama Doctrine,” p. 75.
124. Senator Graham (R-SC), 115th Cong., 2nd sess., Congressional Record, 卷. 160 (六月 12, 2014),
p. S3630.
125. ProQuest search, “Islamic State,” “ISIS,” “ISIL,” June 11–22, 2014 (rise of ISIS) 和
September 1–October 1, 2014 (journalist beheadings), 氮(西德:2)199.
126. Congressman Moran (D-VA), 115th Cong., 2nd sess., Congressional Record, 卷. 160 (塞普滕-
误码率 10, 2014), p. H7550.
127. Senator Coons (D-DE), 115th Cong., 2nd sess., Congressional Record, 卷. 160 (九月 10,
2014), p. S5534.
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叙事与战争 119
mitting that he had no strategy to counter ISIS. “President Obama is going
back to a pre-9/11 mentality,” one member said.128 Some implored Obama to
not repeat the mistake of withdrawing forces from Iraq with a withdrawal
from Afghanistan.129
正如预期的那样, the story also showed up in other indicators. Editorials around
the events from June to September reºected a robust anti-terrorism narra-
tive.130 For instance, 85 percent of editorials across approximately ªfty news-
papers rejected Obama’s cautious language, framing the threat in existential
条款 (例如, “Islamic extremism,” “nihilistic ideology”). The events “horriªed
the civilized world,” said one, calling ISIS “beyond anything that we’ve
seen.”131 More than 50 percent of editorials drew parallels to terrorist at-
tacks since September 11. 其他 84 percent echoed the lesson to get ac-
主动的, nearly half of which discussed or endorsed criticisms of Obama’s policies.
Polls also reºected this trend. 超过 50 percent of respondents disapproved of
Obama’s handling of terrorism and considered the 2011 Iraq drawdown to
be a mistake.132
In the two years that followed the ISIS rise, the frequency of ISIS-inspired
attacks—Sydney, 巴黎, Tripoli, Tunis, 也门, Damascus, 埃塞俄比亚, Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait, Turkey, Bangladesh, 布鲁塞尔, Kabul, and Cairo—reinforced
the anti-terrorism narrative.133 Take, 例如, the November 2015 Paris at-
tacks that killed 130 人们. “Everyone back home had lost their minds,” said
奥巴马, who was abroad at the time.134 Among the promoters in Congress,
几乎 90 percent framed the Paris attacks in existential terms and advocated
continued or expanded vigor to combat terrorism. Ninety editorials from sixty
different U.S. newspapers found that 88 percent framed Paris in existential
条款 (“the urgency of defeating this nihilism,” “attack . . . on freedom”).135
128. Senator Graham (R-SC), 115th Cong., 2nd sess., Congressional Record, 卷. 160 (六月 17, 2014),
p. S3692.
129. 同上. Many argued that Obama’s decision to completely withdraw troops from Iraq in 2011
opened the door for instability and the rise of ISIS, which put the United States and its allies at
风险. They claimed that the lesson of Iraq, 然后, was to leave troops in Afghanistan.
130. ProQuest search, “Islamic State,” “ISIS,” “ISIL,” June 11–22, 2014, and August 20–September
12, 2014, 氮(西德:2)91, 37 报纸.
131. “The Time for Action Is Now,” Daily Press [Newport News], 八月 21, 2014; and “A Neces-
sary Response to ISIS,“ 纽约时报, 八月 25, 2014.
132. “June Poll—Bowe Bergdahl/Benghazi Attack/Healthcare Services for Veterans,” June 25–27,
2014, 盖洛普, iRoper, https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/.
133. Cameron Glenn et al., “Timeline: The Rise, Spread, and Fall of
the Islamic State”
(华盛顿, 华盛顿特区: Wilson Center, 2019), https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/timeline-the-rise-
spread-and-fall-the-islamic-state.
134. Cited in Goldberg, “The Obama Doctrine,” p. 82.
135. “The Price of Fear,“ 纽约时报, 十一月 21, 2015; and “Our View: West Needs Unity to
Fight Terrorists,” Santa Fe New Mexican, 十一月 18, 2015.
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国际安全 47:1 120
Fifty percent linked Paris to 9/11 or other similar events, 和 83 百分
called for continued vigilance (IE。, the narrative’s lesson).136
最后, candidates for the White House in 2016 appealed to the narrative to
woo voters. Trump promised more toughness: “Anyone who cannot condemn
这 . . . violence of Radical Islam lacks the moral clarity to serve as our presi-
dent.” Trump blamed Obama for ISIS, pledging a quick victory if elected and a
commitment to never give up “hard-fought sacriªces and gains” in places like
Iraq with “a sudden withdrawal.”137 He repeatedly linked his Democratic ri-
val, Hillary Clinton, to Obama’s policies. Clinton countered with her own
narrative-based appeals, promising to use more force than Obama.138 Overall,
the jabbing back and forth testiªed again to narrative robustness. 很多
as the strategic narrative constrained Obama’s options, it also affected Trump’s
policy on Afghanistan.
trump and the 2017 troop increase
As expected by the strategic-narrative argument, the mid-2010s surge in the
anti-terrorism narrative shaped Obama’s fall 2014 decision to recommit troops
to Iraq and, fearing being blamed for “losing” Afghanistan, led him to aban-
don his plan for a full withdrawal from Afghanistan by the end of 2016. A poll
found that 61 percent of respondents supported the move to pause the
drawdown.139 These same narrative-based constraints affected Trump early in
his presidency.
From the start, Trump wanted out of Afghanistan. He called the war “a total
disaster,” advocated withdrawal (on at least ªfteen occasions during the cam-
paign), and he exploded when the Pentagon requested more troops in 2017.140
136. ProQuest search, “Paris” and “terror,” November 14–24, 2015; and ProQuest search,
“Brussels” and “terror,” March 22–April 1, 2016, 氮(西德:2)49. After Brussels, thirty newspapers demon-
strated the same pattern: 69 percent existential, 73 percent post-9/11 narrative events, 和 65 每-
cent lesson.
137. Donald Trump, “Full Text: Donald Trump’s Speech on Fighting Terrorism,” 政治报, 八月
16, 2016, https://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-terrorism-speech-227025.
138. “Comparing Hillary Clinton’s and Donald Trump’s Different Approaches to ISIS,” PBS
News Hour, 八月 16, 2016, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/comparing-hillary-clintons-
donald-trumps-approaches-isis.
139. Rhodes, The World as It Is, PP. 296–313; Carter Malkasian, The American War in Afghanistan:
A History (纽约: 牛津大学出版社, 2021), PP. 395–396; and “Fox News Poll: 行进
2015,” Fox News, iRoper Center, https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/.
140. Anonymous, A Warning (纽约: Twelve, 2019), PP. 46–47; Senator Paul (R-KY), 请讲
on H.R. 2810, 117th Cong., 1st sess., Congressional Record, 卷. 163 (九月 12, 2017), p. S5199;
Peter Bergen, Trump and His Generals: The Cost of Chaos (纽约: 企鹅, 2019), PP. 128, 132,
147–148, 150; and Woodward, Fear: Trump and the White House, PP. 115–125, 221–222.
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叙事与战争 121
到底, 然而, Trump did the exact opposite of what he wanted. 在
八月 18, he agreed to send 4,000 more troops to Afghanistan. 为什么? The pol-
itics of strategic narratives help answer this question.
Throughout 2017, promoters built a robust
liberal discourse around
阿富汗. Republicans in Congress, 尤其, talked about the dan-
gers of terrorism from Afghanistan and encouraged a tougher stance than
奥巴马的. Many praised Trump for reversing “the unwise and unsound poli-
cies by the Obama administration” with early 2017 moves that included use of
high-yield bombs against ISIS in Afghanistan and air strikes to punish Syria
for using chemical weapons, the latter in contrast to Obama’s response in
Syria.141 The liberal discourse also showed up in a Senate debate over ending
the Authorization for Use of Military Force resolution passed by Congress in
2001. Critics of the measure relied on the terrorism theme: “Terrorist organiza-
tions continue to . . . promote a radical ideology to recruit new ªghters and
plot violent attacks as part of their jihad against the United States of America
and all that we stand for,” said Senator John McCain (R-AZ). Senate Majority
Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) echoed the same sentiment: “Sixteen years af-
ter the terrorist attacks of September 11, our enemies are not gone.”142 The
measure failed by a 61–36 margin. 全面的, 几乎 60 percent of congressio-
nal statements on Afghanistan in this period focused on the lesson to
ªght terrorism.143
Other measures reveal the same strategic-narrative discourse. In summer
2017, 85 percent of newspapers supported more troops for anti-terrorism rea-
sons.144 More than half opposed a drawdown from Afghanistan or drew paral-
lels to Obama’s mistakes in Iraq. “He’s right to broaden the U.S. role in
阿富汗,” noted a Chicago Tribune editorial, “Obama’s troop withdrawal
from Iraq in 2011 left that country in a state of chaos, and the Islamic State
rose from the ashes of al-Qaida in Iraq.”145 Polls in 2017 also captured the
robust anti-terrorism discourse. While the war in Afghanistan was not gener-
ally popular, 76 percent of respondents agreed that “security here in the
141. Senator Barrasso (R-WY), 117th Cong., 1st sess., Congressional Record, 卷. 163 (四月 27, 2017),
p. S2572.
142. Senator McCain (R-AZ), speaking on H.R. 2810, 117th Cong., 1st sess., Congressional Record,
卷. 163 (九月 13, 2017), p. S5263; and Senator McConnell (R-KY), speaking on H.R. 2810,
117th Cong., 1st sess., Congressional Record, 卷. 163 (九月 13, 2017), p. S5244.
143. ProQuest Congressional, “Afghanistan,” January 20 and September 15, 2017, 氮(西德:2)31.
144. ProQuest search, “Trump AND Afghanistan AND troop*,” June 1–August 31, 2017, 氮(西德:2)41,
29 报纸.
145. “Why Afghanistan Matters,” Chicago Tribune, 八月 22, 2017.
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国际安全 47:1 122
United States” depended upon Afghanistan, 和 71 percent agreed that ISIS
would strengthen if the United States were to withdraw. Consistent with the
strategic-narrative argument, the public saw the war’s value when it was tied
to terrorism.146
Internally, promoters pressed narrative themes, elevating costs of inaction.
Though not public per se, this messaging from current and former military
leaders mirrored that of the Obama period. As Afghanistan deteriorated in the
春天, National Security Advisor Herbert Raymond “H.R.” McMaster and
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Max Dunford repeatedly warned of an-
other September 11. Promoters claimed that Obama’s retreat was losing
阿富汗. They hammered themes such as the lost capacity to track al-
Qaeda, a growing ISIS threat, and potential risks to the “civilized world” with
another September 11. By early summer, McMaster proposed an additional
3,000–5,000 troops to carry out a new “counterterrorism-centric plan.”147
As these events unfolded, promoters reminded Trump repeatedly of his
narrative-based language on the campaign trail,
intentionally playing
on Trump’s political concern to look tough. “We’re losing big in Afghanistan,”
Trump said, reºecting worries of looking weak, “It’s a disaster.” Secretary of
Defense James N. Mattis took advantage of this opportunity to challenge
Trump’s desire for withdrawal. “The quickest way out is to lose,” Mattis said,
before pressing the need for increased troops. “I’m tired of hearing that,”
Trump responded.148
不出所料, given his ties to the military, Senator Graham was aware of
the debate inside the administration. He met with Trump in May and used the
robust anti-terrorism narrative to reiterate costs of inaction. “Do you want on
your resume that you allowed Afghanistan to go back into darkness and the
第二 9/11 came from the very place the ªrst 9/11 做过?” Graham said,
“Listen to your generals. General Obama was terrible . . . General Trump is go-
ing to be no better.”149 Graham knew that the pressure around terrorism and
146. Dana Blanton, “Fox News Poll: 27 Percent Favor Senate GOP Health Care Plan, as Vote Gets
Delayed,” Fox News, 六月 28, 2017, https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-27-percent-
favor-senate-gop-health-care-plan-as-vote-gets-delayed; Dana Blanton, “Fox News Poll: Candid?
是的. Presidential? Not So Much. Voters Describe Trump,” Fox News, 九月 19, 2017, https://
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-candid-yes-presidential-not-so-much-voters-describe-
trump; and Dana Blanton, “Fox News Poll: Tax Reform Important to Voters, but Most Doubt It
Will Happen,” Fox News, 九月 25, 2017, https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-
tax-reform-important-to-voters-but-most-doubt-it-will-happen.
147. 卑尔根, Trump and His Generals, PP. 133–140; and Woodward, Fear: Trump and the White House,
PP. 115–121.
148. 伍德沃德, Fear: Trump and the White House, PP. 124–126.
149. 同上。, p. 122.
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叙事与战争 123
Obama could be effective. That spring, Trump took several steps to enhance
his public image, such as striking al-Qaeda in Yemen, expanding action to “an-
nihilate” (rather than just “contain,” in the words of Obama) ISIS, and launch-
ing “red line” strikes against Syrian chemical weapons that Obama refused to
take.150 “Obama, he’s . . . weak,” Trump told Graham after the Syrian strike,
“He would’ve never done that.”151
The ªnal decision to escalate came at a meeting with advisers on August 18,
2017, at Camp David. Costs of inaction for not falling in line with the anti-
terrorism narrative played a determining role. Attorney General Jeff Sessions
opened the meeting with an appeal for restraint. He proposed complete with-
drawal. In a plan hatched by Sessions and former adviser Steve Bannon
(a leading moderator), CIA Director Mike Pompeo detailed a strategy for in-
creased covert operations in lieu of troops. In a move that frustrated his mod-
erator cohorts, Pompeo ultimately and unexpectedly quashed the plan. 事先的
to the meeting, CIA ofªcials told Pompeo that the covert-operations-only ap-
proach would likely fail and, more ominously, that he [Pompeo] 将会
held accountable.152
Once Pompeo relented, promoters (例如, McMaster, Dunford, and White
House Chief of Staff John F. 凯莉) began to discuss how to prevent al-Qaeda
from reaching the homeland. “I’m tired of hearing that,” Trump responded,
“I want to get out.” Mattis argued that to leave would result in a “vacuum for
al Qaeda to create a terrorist sanctuary leading to 9/11.” Mattis then high-
lighted audience costs of inaction: “What happened in Iraq under Obama with
the emergence of ISIS will happen under you.” In the days prior to Camp
大卫, Graham issued a similar warning. “It becomes Iraq on steroids . . . 这
下一个 9/11 will come from where the ªrst was and you own it,” Graham said,
“The question is are you going to go down the Obama road, which is to
end the war and put us all at risk . . . ?”153 The domestic costs of looking weak
on terrorism were apparent to Bannon, who told reporter Bob Woodward that
the generals briefed Trump repeatedly on the dangers of another 9/11, 所以
that “if the threat materialized, they would leak to the Washington Post and
New York Times that Trump had ignored the warnings.”154 The political impli-
150. 卑尔根, Trump and His Generals, PP. 111–115, 118; and Woodward, Fear: Trump and the White
房子, PP. 51–73, 146–150. With each of these policy steps, Trump wanted to appear tougher than
奥巴马.
151. Cited in Woodward, Fear: Trump and the White House, p. 151.
152. 同上。, PP. 256–258; and Bergen, Trump and His Generals, p. 157. Steve Bannon left the White
House in mid-August.
153. All cited in Woodward, Fear: Trump and the White House, PP. 255–256.
154. 同上。, p. 254.
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国际安全 47:1 124
cations of that would be devastating for Trump, given elevated national con-
cerns about terrorism and his campaign promises to be “tough.” The potential
of a narrative-based public backlash hung over the entire debate.
Costs of inaction ultimately proved too much for Trump. “You’re telling me
I have to do this, and I guess that’s ªne,” Trump responded to Mattis on
八月 18, “but I still think you’re wrong.”155 Afterward, Trump called
Graham to inform him of his decision—an indication of the domestic political
dynamics that mattered most to Trump.156 Three nights later, Trump leaned on
narrative themes to explain the troop increase publicly. Admitting “his original
instinct was to pull out,” Trump noted, his mind changed because “a hasty
withdrawal would create a vacuum that terrorists . . . would ªll, just as hap-
pened before September 11.” Trump then quickly pivoted to Obama: “And as
we know, 在 2011, America hastily and mistakenly withdrew from Iraq . . . 我们
cannot repeat in Afghanistan the mistake our leaders made in Iraq.”157 The
speech resonated broadly: Fifty-one percent of Americans supported increased
troops in Afghanistan, 和 71 percent agreed that ISIS would gain if the
United States withdrew.158
The Narrative Declines
An ideological rival’s debilitating defeat and/or the absence of rival attacks
on ideological kin for an extended period are the most likely events to
cause a liberal narrative to weaken. In the late 2010s, both happened. As ex-
pected, the anti-terrorism narrative lost salience nationally, audience costs of
inaction decreased, and political space opened for U.S. troop withdrawal
from Afghanistan.
The centerpiece to narrative weakening in the late 2010s was the defeat of
the ISIS caliphate in Iraq/Syria along with the continued weakening of al-
Qaeda. By late 2018, the ISIS caliphate collapsed (IE。, positive event)—Raqqa
and Rawa fell in 2017, ending ISIS territorial control in Iraq, and Hajin (最后
ISIS-held town in Syria) fell in 2018. 作为 2022, ISIS is a shell of its former self.
155. Cited in ibid., PP. 256–257.
156. 同上。, p. 259.
157. Donald Trump, “Full Transcript: Trump’s Speech on Afghanistan,” speech at Fort Myer mili-
tary base in Arlington, 弗吉尼亚州, 纽约时报, 八月 21, 2017.
158. John Merline, “Trump’s Approval Rating Climbs after ‘Terrible’ August; Most Say Confeder-
ate Statues Should Stay: IBD/TIPP Poll,” Investor’s Business Daily, 九月 5, 2017, https://
www.investors.com/politics/trump-approval-rebounds-from-lows-after-charlottesville-harvey-
confederate-statues-ibdtipp-poll/.
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叙事与战争 125
Al-Qaeda is too, having suffered major setbacks after U.S.-led counter-
terrorism operations decimated its leadership.159 The ISIS/al-Qaeda decline
has also resulted in a major reduction in terrorist attacks. No ISIS-generated
mass casualty events have occurred after 2016. 全球范围, terrorist attacks in
2019 是 59 percent lower than at their peak in 2014, and terrorism deaths fell
在 2019 for the ªfth consecutive year.160
Neither terrorist organization is entirely gone, 当然. Terrorist cells have
migrated to other places, primarily in Yemen and parts of Africa. The focus of
these groups is increasingly more regional than international, 然而, 意思是-
ing that the United States and its Western democratic allies, 尤其, 有
become much less of a target.161 The theory would predict that a robust liberal
narrative should have been sustained throughout the ªrst decade of the
twenty-ªrst century, which the pattern in ªgure 1 shows was the case (see also
the online appendix). In the 2000s, frequent/severe attacks capable of sustain-
ing a robust liberal narrative were a function of how often (at least one attack
every two or three years) instead of how many attacks occurred against liberal
状态. 而且, an especially traumatic direct attack like September 11 前任-
tended the narrative-supporting effects in the years that followed.162 Regard-
ing the 2018–2021 period, the frequency of ISIS/al-Qaeda attacks against
“free” states or the citizens of free states abroad substantially declined relative
to the mid-2010s. While these attacks did not completely stop (IE。, 奥地利
2020, with four casualties), the trend toward reduced negative events, coupled
with the even more impactful positive event of the ISIS defeat, marks a distinct
shift below the threshold of severe/frequent events necessary to sustain a ro-
bust liberal narrative across time. 实际上, the event-context of recent years re-
sembles the early 2010s when Obama withdrew troops from Iraq and began
withdrawal from Afghanistan. This period was marked by a major positive
event—the killing of Osama bin Laden (2011)—and a reduction in nega-
tive events with the absence of any attacks on Western democracies from
2008 到 2014.163
159. Glenn et al., “Timeline: The Rise.”
160. Global Terrorism Index 2020: Measuring the Impact of Terrorism (悉尼: Institute for Economics
and Peace, 十一月 2020), Vision of Humanity, https://visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/
uploads/2020/11/GTI-2020-web-1.pdf.
161. 同上.
162. Al-Qaeda attacks in Iraq (not in ªgure 1 because Freedom House does not code Iraq as
“free”) mattered, 也, given the heavy U.S. investment in a liberalizing mission there. These at-
tacks in Iraq totaled ªfteen (2005), twenty-two (2007), and twenty-one (2008).
163. The three attacks in 2010 和 2011 occurred in Mali, a non-Western democracy, which cou-
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国际安全 47:1 126
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The decrease in severe/frequent events from the late 2010s onward affected
the narrative landscape in predicted ways. 正如预期的那样, it augmented modera-
tor stories of restraint, which appeared in leading narrative indicators. 从
his bully pulpit as president, Trump was a leading moderator. The fall of
Raqqa “represents a critical breakthrough in our worldwide campaign to de-
feat ISIS and its wicked ideology,” he said in 2018, “the end of the ISIS caliph-
ate is in sight.”164 He called for retrenchment and said it was “time to come
home and rebuild.”165 Trump repeated these themes through 2020. Democratic
presidential candidates did too. 实际上, during the 2020 campaign, no candi-
dates aspired to look tough on terrorism, especially in ongoing Middle East
wars.166 Instead, both as a reºection of and a contributing factor to the weak-
pled with the Osama bin Laden killing made them less impactful on the anti-terrorism narrative.
Unlike Iraq, the United States was not actively engaged in a democracy-building mission in Mali,
and thus those attacks garnered almost no U.S. news coverage.
164. Glenn et al., “Timeline: The Rise.”
165. Gordon Lubold and Jessica Donati, “Trump Orders Big Troops Reduction in Afghanistan,”
Wall Street Journal, 十二月 20, 2018.
166. Michael Crowley, “Trump’s Campaign Talk of Troop Withdrawals Does Not Match Military
/
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叙事与战争 127
ened liberal narrative, candidates competed mostly over credit for reduced ter-
rorist threats and the best strategy to bring troops home. “Trump’s secret plan
to defeat ISIS—you remember that—secret plan to defeat ISIS was just to keep
doing what we [Obama-Biden administration] had put in place,” Biden
claimed during an Iowa campaign stop.167 Like others, he also repeatedly asso-
ciated reduced threats and winding down U.S. wars in the Middle East. 这
need is to “end forever wars in Afghanistan and the Middle East, which have
cost us untold blood and treasure,” Biden said.168
At the time of these statements, many experts debated whether terrorism re-
mained a major threat to the United States. Those who warned about the threat
of terrorism carried little weight, 尽管, which the strategic-narrative argu-
ment would expect. In times of reduced severity/frequency, promoters lose sa-
lience and moderators gain salience.
不出所料, 然后, broad narrative measures indicate that moderator
storytelling both fueled and reºected a general decrease in the anti-terrorism
narrative starting in 2018. Core elements of the anti-terrorism narrative were
almost completely absent among the discussions on Capitol Hill about the fol-
lowing major terrorism/Afghanistan events: the ISIS defeat (行进 2019), 这
killing of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (十月 2019), the Afghan peace
交易 (二月 2020), and Trump’s October 2020 Afghanistan withdrawal
pledge.169 Collectively, in the weeks following these events, 少于 5 百分
of congressional statements mentioned existential dangers of terrorism, 和
仅有的 15 percent connected current developments to those like September 11, 在
the heart of the anti-terrorism narrative. 仅有的 35 percent openly advocated
continued aggression abroad and/or continued troop deployments to protect
against renewed terrorist strikes.
相比之下, moderator discourse abounded, as nearly 60 percent of congres-
sional statements hailed the gains against terrorists. Many talked of the
beneªts to democracy and civilization, whereas others advocated full with-
drawal from the Middle East. 最后, to the extent that the anti-terrorism story
Reality,“ 纽约时报, 十月 11, 2020. Reºecting the weakened narrative, this public postur-
ing about terrorism was intentional and meant to appeal to voters.
167. Stephen Gruber-Miller, “‘Trump Sold Them Out’: Joe Biden Hits the President over Syria
Troop Withdrawal in Iowa Speech,” Des Moines Register, 十月 16, 2019.
168. Crowley, “Trump’s Campaign.”
169. ProQuest search, “ISIS,” “Islamic State,” or “ISIL,” March 23–April 30, 2019; ProQuest search,
“Al-Baghdadi,” or “Al Baghdadi,” October 27–November 30, 2019; ProQuest search, “Afghani-
斯坦,” February 28–April 30, 2020; and ProQuest search, “Afghanistan,” October 7, 2020–
一月 19, 2021. See the online appendix for search details.
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国际安全 47:1 128
of old was being told at all, it was not being told that often. Collectively, 那里
were only sixty-six congressional statements in the weeks and months follow-
ing these events from 2019 到 2020 compared with eighty U.S. congressional
statements (with strong storytelling on all narrative elements) in just ªve days
after the 2015 ISIS attacks in Paris.170
The effects of decreased severity/frequency on the anti-terrorism narrative
showed up on editorial pages too. In each of the three years prior to Biden’s
April decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, references to “terrorism” on
我们. editorial pages declined by 21 百分 (2018–2019), 40 百分 (2019–
2020), 和 66 百分 (2020–2021) relative to the annual average number of ref-
erences over the nine-year period between April 2009 and April 2018, 什么时候
the anti-terrorism narrative was especially robust. Editorial-page references to
“Afghanistan” showed a similar pattern in 2020–2021, 与一个 60 percent de-
crease from the annual average between 2008 和 2018. 最后, combining
these two terms, references in U.S. editorials to “Afghanistan and terrorism”
decreased by 44 百分 (2018–2019), 47 百分 (2019–2020), 和 86 百分
(2020–2021) relative to the annual average across the 2008 到 2018 period.171
This trend is signiªcant: By April 2021, the nationwide discussion found on
editorial pages about terrorism and Afghanistan had fallen to its lowest level
自从 2000, the year before the September 11 恐怖袭击.
More focused editorial surveys also conªrm this narrative weakening. 后
the collapse of the ISIS caliphate and the death of al-Baghdadi, 只有
sixteen editorials from ten U.S. newspapers in the month following each event.
Compare that with the number of editorials in just ten days after the 2015 巴黎
(90) 和 2008 伦敦 (100) terrorist attacks.172 Moreover, the old anti-
terrorism story of existential danger was replaced by the moderator theme of
major victory or gains against terrorism (63 百分). The Chicago Tribune called
the defeat of ISIS “a milestone in the long, arduous ªght against post-9/11
extremism.”173 Papers referred to al-Baghdadi’s death as a “force disrupter,”
“important victory for America’s antiterror strategy,” and a “victory for civili-
170. ProQuest search, “ISIS,” “Islamic State,” or “ISIL,” March 23–May 15, 2019, and October 27–
十一月 30, 2019; and ProQuest search, “Afghanistan,” February 28–May 31, 2020, and Octo-
误码率 7, 20202–January 19, 2021. See the online appendix for search details.
171. ProQuest search, “Afghanistan,” annually from April 13, 2009, through April 13, 2021;
ProQuest search, “terrorism,” annually from April 13, 2009, through April 13, 2021; and ProQuest
搜索, “Afghanistan and terrorism,” annually from April 13, 2009, through April 13, 2021.
172. ProQuest search, “Islamic State,” “ISIS,” or “ISIL,” March 23–April 30, 2019; and ProQuest
搜索, “Al Baghdadi,” October 27–November 27, 2019. See the online appendix for search details.
173. “Islamic State’s Caliphate Is Dead. The Threat Endures,” Chicago Tribune, 行进 29, 2019.
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叙事与战争 129
zation.”174 While many (75 百分) supported continuing the ªght against ter-
rorism, a collection of editorials that spanned a greater time period showed
that talk of the lesson of the anti-terrorism narrative was weak as well. 在里面
sixteen months prior to Biden’s troop-withdrawal announcement, 仅有的 32 每-
cent of approximately 130 我们. editorials about al-Qaeda or ISIS echoed the
anti-terrorism narrative’s lesson, to keep up ªghting against terrorists. 毛皮-
瑟莫雷, 少于 1 percent in this broader array of editorials talked of ter-
rorism as a present existential danger (IE。, a challenge to freedom, 民主,
or civilization) 并且只有 11 百分 (all from the Wall Street Journal) linked cur-
rent events in a foreboding way to past events at the center of the anti-
terrorism story.175 Polls show the same trends. While Americans still worry
about terrorism, A 2019 survey found that, relative to other challenges, 仅有的
1 percent considered terrorism or ISIS to be the greatest future threat to the
United States.176
最后, these same patterns of liberal narrative weakness were evident
around the question of Afghanistan speciªcally. Only ten editorials appeared
在我们中. newspapers in the two months after the 2020 announcement of a peace
deal and only fourteen in the three months after Trump’s 2020 announced
withdrawal.177 With ISIS defeated and the frequency of attacks declining (看
ªgure 1), the story came rarely to the fore. 在 2009 和 2017, talk of a military
drawdown in Afghanistan would have sparked a mighty narrative-based out-
burst: worries about another 9/11, dangers to Western democracy, and the like.
But this did not occur in 2020. After Trump’s 2020 announcement of with-
drawal, no editorials framed events in existential terms, and only one of the
twenty-four editorials connected the present development to past narrative-
based events.
反而, moderator themes dominated. While many noted the challenges to
a peaceful settlement, eighteen of twenty-four editorials welcomed the Taliban
peace deal, and more than a third unequivocally supported near-term or im-
174. “The U.S. Delivers Justice to al-Baghdadi,” Chicago Tribune, 十月 28, 2019; “The Lessons of
Baghdadi,” Wall Street Journal, 十月 28, 2019; and “The Death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi,” USA
今天, 十月 29, 2019.
175. ProQuest search, “Al-Qaeda,” “Islamic State,” “ISIS,” or “ISIL,” December 1–April 13, 2021,
氮(西德:2)132, 25 报纸.
176. Laura Silver, Kat Devlin, and Christine Huang, “我们. Views of China Turn Sharply Negative
Amid Trade Tensions,” Pew Research Center, 八月 13, 2019, https://www.pewresearch.org/
global/2019/08/13/u-s-views-of-china-turn-sharply-negative-amid-trade-tensions/. Twenty-four
percent of respondents cited China or Russia.
177. ProQuest search, “Afghanistan,” February 28–April 30, 2020, N510, 8 newspapers and Octo-
误码率 7, 2020–January 19, 2021, N514, 10 报纸.
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国际安全 47:1 130
mediate withdrawal from Afghanistan. “The Trump administration was right
to open negotiations with the Taliban and . . . reduce the number of U.S.
军队,” noted the Los Angeles Times.178 Another called the deal “a ticket out of
Afghanistan for American troops who’ve been there far too long,” adding that
“recognizing when a ªght has become useless is the right thing to do.”179
Many criticized Trump’s approach, especially his push for a hasty 2020 和-
drawal (nine of fourteen editorials opposed this approach, 实际上). Reºecting
the narrative moment, 尽管, the reasons given included the need for a
careful policy review ªrst, potential damage to the peace process, 或者
need to leave the decision to Biden rather than to ªght terrorism (IE。, the lib-
eral narrative).
Polls also showed the narrative trends around Afghanistan policy. 数字 2
tracks the annual average of public opinion support for maintaining or in-
creasing U.S. troops in Afghanistan from 2009 到 2021 (see the online appen-
dix). Changes over time reºect what the strategic-narrative argument would
expect. For the 2018–2021 period, as severity/frequency of events decreased
because of ISIS/al-Qaeda’s decline and reduced attacks on free countries, 酒吧-
lic support for troop presence in Afghanistan dropped substantially as well.
Support fell below 50 percent in 2019—the year after the ISIS defeat and the
second year of reduced attacks (ªgure 1)—then plunged to around 30 每-
分在 2020 和 2021. “Americans are in a sour mood,” the Wall Street Journal
observed in 2020, “The desire to come home is understandable.”180 In sum,
at the same time that events weakened the anti-terrorism narrative, 已经-
tional support for the war in Afghanistan fell as well, in line with the strategic-
narrative argument.
Earlier trends in ªgure 2 also support the strategic-narrative argument. 作为
discussed previously, amid a robust liberal narrative sustained by severe/
frequent attacks, public support for troops in Afghanistan was close to 60 每-
分在 2009. Support remained around 50 percent through April 2011 (看
2011a in ªgure 2), before dropping sharply, as expected, following the May
death of bin Laden (IE。, positive event) and reduced frequency of attacks into
the early 2010s. After bin Laden’s death, 55 percent said they were “not wor-
ried” that troop withdrawals from Afghanistan would make the United States
178. “Deal with the Taliban the Price to Pay,” 洛杉矶时报, 二月 29, 2020.
179. “A War Without Winners Winds Down,“ 纽约时报, 行进 2, 2020.
180. “The Afghan Withdrawal Deal,” Wall Street Journal, 行进 1, 2020.
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叙事与战争 131
数字 2. Public Opinion Support to Maintain or Increase Troops in Afghanistan
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来源: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, iPoll Database (伊萨卡岛, 纽约: Cornell Uni-
大学), https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/ipoll/. See the online appendix for a list of speciªc
polls.
“more vulnerable to terrorist attacks.”181 Unsurprisingly for this narrative con-
文本, Obama announced a timetable in 2012 for a complete withdrawal of all
troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2016.182 正如预期的那样, opinion shifted
again with the mid-2014 resurgence of the anti-terrorism narrative amid the
severe/frequent attacks by ISIS. Change actually came mid-year, 追踪
closely (as expected) with the surge in the anti-terrorism narrative following
ISIS gains in Iraq/Syria—support for troops in Afghanistan jumped from
29 percent in early 2014 到 53 percent by December. Poll numbers remained
大约 50 percent until 2019.
一般来说, the evidence presented here offers strong support for the
strategic-narrative argument. 全面的, 早到 2021, the anti-terrorism narra-
主动的, with its worries of another September 11 stemming from Afghanistan,
was largely gone, a casualty of de-traumatizing events. In its place was “public
181. Jeffrey M. 琼斯, “In U.S., Fears of Terrorism after Afghanistan Pullout Subside,” Gallup,
六月 29, 2011, https://news.gallup.com/poll/148331/Fear-Terrorism-Afghanistan-Pullout-Subside
.ASPX.
182. Malkasian, The American War, PP. 395–396. 再次, as expected, Obama reversed this with the
rise of ISIS.
国际安全 47:1 132
冷漠,” according to commentators, meaning that regarding Afghanistan,
“many Americans . . . lost track of what this war . . . 是, or was, about.”183
biden’s 2021 退出
President Biden’s decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan is not ex-
plained by a realpolitik calculation of the national interest. Biden’s two imme-
diate predecessors believed that the national interest dictated withdrawal.
What allowed Biden to follow through in ways that Obama and Trump could
不是? The objective national interest argument cannot answer this puzzle. Nar-
rative politics can, 然而.
When a liberal narrative weakens, the discourses that form around it tend to
be weak as well. 反过来, space opens up and pressure sometimes builds for
greater military restraint and retrenchment—audience costs of inaction decline
and costs of action rise. Such developments occurred in early 2021 around the
我们. policy in Afghanistan, helping explain Biden’s decision for withdrawal.
After taking ofªce, Biden did not face the liberal-narrative pressure that his
two predecessors had experienced. There was little public discourse by pro-
moters leading up to his decision on Afghanistan: only two statements (一
prowar, one antiwar) in the Congressional Record, and just nine editorials (四
from the Wall Street Journal) on Afghan policy.184 Talk of another September 11
or threats to democracy (IE。, narrative components) were nonexistent. 许多
pundits acknowledged popular sentiments to leave and, in bowing to that sen-
timent, endorsed doing so eventually. “Americans are understandably eager to
move on,” conceded the traditionally hawkish Wall Street Journal, “The ques-
tion is not whether the U.S. will leave Afghanistan but whether it will do so re-
sponsibly.”185 In February 2021, 79 percent of Americans considered continued
我们. troop presence in Afghanistan mostly or very unfavorably.186
In internal debates, military promoters continued to press for staying in
阿富汗. In late March meetings with the president, Joint Chiefs of Staff
Chair Mark Milley, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and others issued a bleak
post-withdrawal forecast, warning of Taliban and al-Qaeda resurgence and de-
183. Sarah Kreps and Douglas Kriner, “In or Out of Afghanistan Is Not a Political Choice,” Foreign
事务, 行进 22, 2001, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2021-03-22/or-out-
afghanistan-not-political-choice; and Charles Lane, “An Afghan Exit with Shades of Vietnam,”
Washington Post, 十二月 3, 2020.
184. ProQuest search, “Afghanistan,” January 20–April 13, 2021, N59, 6 报纸.
185. “Leaving Afghanistan the Right Way,” Wall Street Journal, 二月 10, 2021.
186. Mohamed Younis, “China, Russia Images in U.S. Hit Historic Lows,” Gallup, 行进 1, 2021,
https://news.gallup.com/poll/331082/china-russia-images-hit-historic-lows.aspx.
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叙事与战争 133
riding “over-the-horizon” counterterrorism.187 Unlike during the Obama and
Trump years, military leaders did not plan to go public because they knew
they had nothing to go public with. Senator Graham, the longtime promoter
who worked closely with the military to orchestrate past narrative-based pres-
sure campaigns, openly admitted in an interview that “I hate Joe Biden for
this.”188 He then added, “I think the Taliban is going to give safe haven to peo-
ple that will come after us.”189 Yet in sharp contrast to his advice to Petraeus
and McChrystal in 2009, he conceded that the new political/narrative reality
left him and other military promoters with no leverage. “The American people
want us to come home,” Graham confessed, “People are tired.”190
Milley admitted to the tipping effect that this narrative shift had on the civil-
military balance. Biden would ªre any military brass (“they’re going to be
gone”)191 who went public, Milley said, which was a move that Obama
was highly unlikely to have made (or threaten) 在 2009, amid a different narra-
tive context (和, 因此, a different civil-military balance).192 Milley further ex-
plained that because the military used tactics to expand what became a
progressively unpopular war in Afghanistan early in the Obama administra-
的, military leaders were subsequently excluded from major decisions (这样的
as withdrawal from Iraq and troop reductions in Afghanistan). He wanted no
repeat of that. “We don’t box in a president,” he said.193 Biden intentionally
worked to avoid a repeat of this dynamic as well. He chose Austin as secretary
of defense because, based on his service under Obama, Biden trusted Austin to
keep promoters in the military from making public statements. Throughout
这 2021 debate on Afghanistan, Austin prevented the Joint Chiefs of Staff
from “going rogue,” according to one ofªcial. 到底, and in sharp contrast
到 2009, no top military brass went public.194 The weakened anti-terrorism nar-
rative had left military promoters no other choice. 在本质上, a weak liberal
discourse in public kept costs of inaction low, leaving Biden (and other civilian
187. Bob Woodward and Robert Costa, Peril (纽约: 西蒙和舒斯特, 2021), PP. 377–379.
188. Cited in ibid., p. 389.
189. 同上.
190. 同上. Going back to at least the Obama administration, Lindsey Graham was always in close
contact with military leaders, especially the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
191. Woodward and Costa, Peril, p. 335.
192. 同上。, PP. 386–387.
193. 同上。, p. 387.
194. Lara Seligman et al., “How Biden’s Team Overrode the Brass on Afghanistan,” 政治报,
四月 15, 2021, https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/14/pentagon-biden-team-overrode-
afghanistan-481556.
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国际安全 47:1 134
policy experts) more political space—something Obama preferred but never
found—to choose a full withdrawal from Afghanistan.
threat
The Afghan debate was extensive—four NSC and ten deputy-level
meetings—with much attention centered on the terror
从
Afghanistan.195 Biden and his closest advisers eventually concluded that the
threat was “relatively small” or “manageable” (实际上, back to pre-9/11 levels)
for the foreseeable future.196 Regarding the strategic-narrative argument,
Biden deemed it unlikely that severe or frequent attacks (IE。, those capable of
re-traumatizing the nation and increasing politically damaging costs of inac-
的) would develop any time soon. According to ofªcials, Biden talked often
about the “lessons of Iraq” under Obama. 特别是, Biden concluded that
the weak Afghan terror threat meant that offshore methods were sufªcient to
avoid a repeat of the domestic political damage that Obama faced with the rise
of ISIS after the 2011 Iraq drawdown. For Biden, potential low severity and fre-
quency moving forward meant a weak liberal discourse moving forward
还有. With low future costs of inaction, Biden found, 再次, more space
for withdrawal. 实际上, as opinion crystalized around modest future threats
from terrorism, Biden focused increasingly on his campaign promises, 关于-
minding his advisers that like his two predecessors, he pledged to end the war
in Afghanistan.197
As the strategic-narrative argument expects, Biden felt (再次, in a way that
his predecessors did not) that he would also face considerable audience costs
of action if he chose not to fulªll his campaign pledge to leave Afghanistan.
The Taliban curtailed all attacks on U.S. forces after the February 2020 peace
交易, resulting in no U.S. casualties in Afghanistan in the year before Biden’s
就职典礼. The administration concluded that staying in Afghanistan after
可能 1, with no plan to leave, would inevitably mean a resumption of ªghting
and increased casualties. A senior ofªcial noted that “if we break the May 1st
195. Karen DeYoung and Missy Ryan, “With Afghanistan, Biden Restores Foreign Policymaking
Process that Trump Abandoned,” Washington Post, 四月 18, 2021; David Ignatius, “History Will
Cast a Shadow over Biden’s Decision to Withdraw from Afghanistan,” Washington Post, 四月 13,
2021; and Jennifer Rubin, “Afghanistan Requires More Humility—from Everyone,” Washington
邮政, 四月 14, 2021.
196. 鲁宾, “Afghanistan Requires More Humility”; Seligman et al., “How Biden’s Team Over-
rode”; and Missy Ryan and Karen DeYoung, “Biden Will Withdraw All U.S. Forces from Afghani-
stan by September 11, 2001,” Washington Post, 四月 13, 2021.
197. Stephen Collinson and Maeve Reston, “Biden Starts to Execute on Policies Trump Aban-
doned by Crossing off Another Campaign Promise,” 美国有线电视新闻网, 四月 15, 2021, https://www.cnn.com/
2021/04/15/politics/joe-biden-afghanistan-troop-withdrawal/index.html.
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叙事与战争 135
deadline negotiated by the previous administration with no clear exit plan, 我们
will be back at the war with the Taliban.”198 If so, Biden would then need to go
one step further and increase troops because 3,000 曾是, according to expert
观点, insufªcient to ªght the Taliban.199 For a president who not only
promised to end the war but also now faced (unlike his predecessors early in
their terms) narrative-driven public opposition to the war, costs of action
were simply too high. “New U.S. casualties after a one-year hiatus under
Trump could be a political disaster,” noted an insider, “That was the last
thing Biden wanted.”200 It would mean “staying in Afghanistan forever,” said
one Biden aide, alluding to the dangers of these costs.201
最后, it is worth noting that, in sharp contrast to the Obama/Trump cases,
moderators (all civilians) played an outsized role under Biden. 根据
to administration sources, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National
Security Advisor Jake Sullivan—both longtime aides of Biden and critics of
the war (especially Sullivan)—were “truly running the Pentagon,” with the
“Pentagon [IE。, promoters] not making these decisions.” According to a law-
maker familiar with the process, “The civilian leaders essentially overruled the
generals on this.”202 Such an outcome is to be expected in a policymaking con-
text marked by a weak liberal discourse.
In an April 14 public statement, Biden explained his decision in narrative-
based terms that the nation understood. “Our reasons for remaining in
Afghanistan are becoming increasingly unclear,” Biden said, “We went
to Afghanistan because of a horriªc attack that happened twenty years
前. That cannot explain why we should remain there in 2021.”203 Editors
at the Washington Post called Biden’s decision to leave the “easy way out of
Afghanistan.”204 They were right. When a long-standing liberal narrative col-
lapses as a lodestar for costly endeavors like war, politicians often choose the
easy way. They leave. To do otherwise simply costs too much.
198. Ryan and DeYoung, “Biden Will Withdraw All.”
199. “The Way Forward in Afghanistan,” Wall Street Journal, 行进 15, 2021. The Afghan Study
Group recommended an increase of troops.
200. Woodward and Costa, Peril, p. 384.
201. Ignatius, “History Will Cast a Shadow.”
202. All cited in Seligman et al., “How Biden’s Team Overrode.”
203. Joe Biden, “Remarks by President Biden on the Way Forward in Afghanistan,” remarks from
the Treaty Room, White House, 四月 14, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieªng-room/
speeches-remarks/2021/04/14/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-way-forward-in-afghanistan/.
204. “Biden Takes the Easy Way Out of Afghanistan. The Likely Result Is Disaster,” Washington
邮政, 四月 13, 2021.
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国际安全 47:1 136
结论
For nearly two decades, 我们. foreign policy was locked in the iron cage of a ro-
bust liberal narrative, centered around anti-terrorism. Born out of the trauma
of September 11 and sustained by terrorist attacks in the years after, the narra-
tive and politics around U.S. foreign policy kept audience costs of inaction
高的, which prevented withdrawal from Afghanistan and brought U.S. 军队
back to Iraq and into Syria. Presidents Obama and Trump calculated that with-
drawal was rational or strategic, but the pressure of narrative politics fore-
closed that option. 从 2018 到 2021, the severity/frequency of terrorist
attacks declined signiªcantly, the anti-terrorism narrative weakened, 观众
costs of inaction declined, and costs of action rose. Only in these narrative-
driven conditions did Trump (late in his presidency) and Biden ªnd space to
draw down from Afghanistan. 总共, the strategic-narrative argument offers
a strong account for both the length and end of the war in Afghanistan, 埃斯佩-
cially against other leading arguments in international relations.
For the United States (and its allies) moving forward, these ªndings point to
two important strategic implications—one in the direction of continued vigi-
lance abroad, the other in the direction of restraint. 第一的, as the United States
shifts attention away from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and focuses more
on great power competition (IE。, China and Russia), 我们. policymakers cannot
turn their backs on terrorism.205 Doing so risks a resurgence of ISIS/al-Qaeda
that will re-traumatize the U.S. 民众, reanimate the anti-terrorism narrative,
and create the kind of costs-of-inaction politics that led to the decades-long,
overly expansive U.S. military engagements in the Middle East. Continued
vigilance against terrorism is vital, 然后, to keep the home front quiet
和, with that, to avoid strategic overstretch (such as the wars in Afghanistan
or Iraq) and to maintain focus on the more pressing matter today of great
power politics.
第二, the ªndings here also point to new standards that the United States
should apply to counterterrorism operations going forward. When it comes to
narrative-animating terrorist strikes—the kinds that are most likely to push
我们. leaders toward expansive military action—U.S. citizens do not care about
205. Eric Schmitt and Helene Cooper, “How the U.S. Plans to Fight from Afar after Troops Exit Af-
ghanistan,“ 纽约时报, 九月 28, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/15/us/
politics/united-states-al-qaeda-afghanistan.html. Biden appears keen to the fact that vigilance
against terrorism is important.
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叙事与战争 137
any and all forms of terrorism. 实际上, they are quite discriminating. 就好像-
cent example, consider the ISIS-K (Islamic State-Khorasan Province) attack at
the Kabul airport during the U.S. evacuation in August 2021. The attack
caused a major uproar across the United States, contributing to the negative
opinion that most U.S. citizens had of Biden’s handling of the withdrawal from
阿富汗. 但, as polls demonstrated, that Kabul attack (and other develop-
评论, like the Taliban victory in Afghanistan) did not generate a resurgence in
the anti-terrorism narrative and with that a reversal of Biden’s drawdown de-
cision.206 The reason? ISIS-K is almost exclusively a local threat, focused on
Afghanistan primarily. It has no capacity (or will, for that matter) to strike the
United States or its liberal democratic allies, especially those in the West. 我们.
citizens understand this. 我们. policymakers need to do the same, and on this
基础, show greater restraint in developing counterterrorism policy.
为此, terrorists of global reach—meaning those with both the
will and the means to strike liberal states beyond the territories that they cur-
rently occupy—can and should become the central focus of U.S. counter-
terrorism policy. These kinds of terrorists represent the real threats to U.S.
安全, both materially and in their narrative-generating potential. 这
global-reach standard is at the center of President Biden’s post-Afghan over-
the-horizon counterterrorism strategy. The same standard needs to be applied
更广泛地.
There is much work to do. Global-reach terrorist organizations are fewer
and far less potent than they were in the early 2010s. The decimation of the
central leadership of al-Qaeda and ISIS has resulted in a decentralization of
both organizations, which includes turning away from global objectives and
targets and focusing more on “parochial grievances and the promotion of . . .
local interests,” according to one study. 总共, “The deck is heavily stacked
against transnational jihadi groups.”207
很遗憾, 我们. policy has not fully adjusted to this reality. 首先
别的, too little distinction is made today in U.S. policy circles between local and
global terrorists. 最后, the United States ªnds itself involved in an ex-
206. Ted Van Green and Carroll Doherty, “Majority of U.S. Public Favors Afghanistan Troop With-
drawal; Biden Criticized for His Handling of Situation,” Pew Research Center, 八月 31, 2021,
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/08/31/majority-of-u-s-public-favors-afghanistan-
troop-withdrawal-biden-criticized-for-his-handling-of-situation/.
207. Barak Mendelsohn and Colin Clarke, “Al-Qaeda Is Being Hollowed to Its Core,” War on the
Rocks, 二月 24, 2021, https://warontherocks.com/2021/02/al-qaeda-is-being-hollowed-to-its-
core/.
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国际安全 47:1 138
pansive web of relatively low-level counterterrorism operations across Africa,
中东地区, and Asia that involve everything from special forces raids to
joint military exercises and air/drone strikes.208 Some of this activity—such as
repeated strikes against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in the 2010s and
perhaps even against ISIS in Syria in 2022—is justiªed by global-reach stan-
dards. Much of it is not, 然而. For all its brutality, Boko Haram in Nigeria,
例如, is a terror organization with local interests only. This does not
意思是, 当然, that the United States should ignore Boko Haram and others
like it—after all, local threats can sometimes become global. Surveillance, intel-
ligence sharing, and sometimes counterterrorism training with local partners
and governments are important. But the United States should pare back its di-
rect use of force against local terrorist groups. In these instances, force contrib-
utes little to U.S. security and runs the risk of escalation in ways that (like in
阿富汗) drain valuable strategic resources.209
The lessons learned from a deeper understanding of strategic narratives
point to the need for a robust counterterrorism program today, 那是, 由
same token, far less expansive and militaristic than that of the past two de-
你跌倒了. Striking this counterterrorism balance—that is, not too little, not too
much—will help manage narrative politics at home and, 反过来, allow the
United States to not only maintain its own security but also contribute in posi-
tive ways to order and stability in a world marked by the exigencies of re-
newed great power competition.
208. Stephanie Savell, United States Counterterrorism Operations, 2018–2020 (Providence, R.I.: Wat-
son Institute, Brown University, 2021), https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/ªles/cow/imce/
papers/2021/US%20Counterterrorism%20Operations%202018-2020%2C%20Costs%20of%20War
.pdf.
209. 同上.
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