Green Trade Patterns and the Transboundary - 麻省理工学院人工智能研究专业

Green Trade Patterns and the Transboundary
Transmission of Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Sung Jin Kang∗

By classifying international green and non-green trade for
the period
1980–2015, this study investigates trends in green trade, exports, and imports as
shares of total trade, exports, and imports, 分别. The general ﬁndings are
that these green shares increased during the review period, albeit with the green
shares for member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation
and Development showing different trends than those of nonmember countries.
更远, three countries at different stages of economic development—the
People’s Republic of China, the Republic of Korea, and the United States—each
exhibit different trends in green trade over time. 尤其, the green trade,
export, and import shares of the People’s Republic of China decreased over
时间, which is in contrast to the increases observed for the Republic of Korea
and the United States during the review period. The ﬁndings suggest that efforts
to persuade developing countries to accept international agreements to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions should also consider the transboundary transmission
of these emissions and their health effects.

关键词: green industry, green trade, greenhouse gas emissions
JEL codes: F14, Q27, Q56

我. 介绍

Hydrocarbon-based technological progress opened up an opportunity for
mass production. 因此, unprecedented global economic growth has improved
the quality of life signiﬁcantly. 然而, the beneﬁts of rapid economic growth
have not been achieved without a cost. The heavy consumption of fossil fuels as
a growth engine has led to the possible exhaustion of these resources in the near
未来, while climate change has been intensiﬁed by the accumulation of greenhouse
气体 (GHG) 排放量. Accumulated GHG emissions have serious effects on human
beings, ranging from individual health to national security (Kang 2015). 张等人.
(2017) found that about 3.45 million premature deaths in 2007 were related to ﬁne
particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 micrometers or less (PM2.5).

∗Sung Jin Kang: Department of Economics and Graduate School of Energy and Environment, Korea University,
Seoul. 电子邮件: sjkang@korea.ac.kr. I would like to thank the managing editor and the anonymous referee for helpful
comments and suggestions. ADB recognizes “China” as the People’s Republic of China and “Korea” as the Republic
of Korea. The usual ADB disclaimer applies.

Asian Development Review, 卷. 37, 不. 1, PP. 119–139
https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00143

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120 Asian Development Review

The international community has been discussing whether sustainable
development can be achieved by switching from the traditional economic growth
strategy to an eco-friendly one. The new growth strategy has been named the “green
economy” by the United Nations Environment Programme (2011) and “green
growth” by the Republic of Korea’s Presidential Commission of Future and Vision
(2009) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (经合组织)
(2012) (Kang 2015).

Since a large portion of GHG emissions originate from developing countries
(and is doing so at an increasing rate), international efforts, which are being led
mainly by developed countries, also require the active participation of developing
国家. 所以,
implementation of the Paris Agreement, which is also
referred to as the post-2020 new climate regime, cannot be successful without
the collaborative efforts of both developed and developing countries. 幸运的是,
developing countries have agreed to join the global agenda to reduce GHG
排放量. 然而, they argue that developed countries should provide various
kinds of international support to them based on the fact that the current status of
climate change is a result of the historical GHG emissions of developed countries
(Munasinghe 1995, Kang 2015).

Another important assertion made by developing countries is that a sizable
amount of the products made in developing countries are consumed by developed
贸易. 因此, developing countries argue that
countries through international
consumers in developed countries are partially responsible for the GHG emissions
in developing countries (Kang 2015). Several recent studies show how GHG
emissions have transboundary transmissions through international trade (Yunfeng
and Laike 2010, Peters et al. 2011, Lin et al. 2014). 张等人. (2017) 显示
22% 的 3.45 million premature deaths (762,400) due to PM2.5 in 2007 是
related to the production of goods and services in one region for consumption in
其他.

Due to the negative effects of imported products, developed countries have
suggested policies to promote imports of eco-friendly products, which is often
referred to as “green protectionism” (Bello 1997, Kang 2015). These policies
impose penalties on non-green products such as cars with less efﬁcient fuel usage.
There is high global demand for products produced by multinational
companies in developing countries that are imported by developed countries. 因此,
developing countries need more investment in green products to account for global
trading trends and to promote economic growth through exports. This new trade–
economic growth nexus can be used to persuade developing countries to join the
international effort to reduce GHG emissions (Munasinghe 1995, Stern 2004, Kang
2015).

By examining the trade patterns of green and non-green products using
international trade data categorized by industries, I investigate the general trends of
global green and non-green trades that provide an insight into the possible channels

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Green Trade Patterns and Transboundary Transmission of GHGs 121

of economic growth for developing countries. For international trade, 联合
国家 (和) Comtrade database is used, which applies the Standard International
Trade Classiﬁcation (SITC) Rev.2 to classify industries. Green and non-green
industries are categorized by the classiﬁcation of green goods and services (GGS)
used by the United States (我们) 劳工统计局 (BLS). Since the GGS is
identiﬁed by the North American Industry Classiﬁcation System (NAICS) 2012 和
the UN Comtrade data follow the SITC Rev.2 classiﬁcation, several correspondence
tables are required to match the two different codes (Muendler 2009).

Identifying the trade patterns of green and non-green industries reveals that
the economic growth strategies of developing countries should focus on promoting
more exports. 因此, it can be inferred that developing countries need to invest
more in producing exportable goods. This paper’s general ﬁnding is that the world
shares of green trade, exports, and imports are increasing relative to total trade,
exports, and imports, 分别. 还, the respective shares of OECD countries
are relatively higher than those of non-OECD countries. 更远, the share of green
imports in non-OECD countries ﬂuctuated from 1980 to 2015—rising in the 1980s
from a low of about 31% to more than 35% by the end of the decade, before dipping
slightly in the 1990s and then increasing again beginning in 2005. At about 37% 在
2015, the green imports share of non-OECD countries was still lower than that of
OECD countries at the end of the review period.

The respective trends for the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the Republic
of Korea, and the US raise interesting issues that need to be further examined. 为了
the Republic of Korea, the share of green exports increased from about 28% 在 1980
到 45% 在 2015, while the share of green imports decreased from 35% 到 33% 在里面
same period. In the US, the shares of green exports and imports in 1981 were about
38% 和 28%, 分别, increasing to about 52% 和 44% 在 2015. 然而, 这
PRC experienced different trends from those observed in the Republic of Korea and
the US during the review period. The shares of green exports and imports decreased
从大约 40% 和 33%, 分别, 在 1986 to about 32% 和 30% 在 2015.

This paper is organized as follows. Section II presents the background of
the study by discussing the green trade and the new climate regime. Section III
introduces data sources and summary statistics. Section IV presents various
graphical analyses for green and non-green trade. Section V concludes.

二. International Trade and Transboundary Transmission

of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The world has experienced unprecedented growth in per capita income since
the Industrial Revolution, which has contributed to a worldwide improvement in the
standard of living. 然而, because the prevailing economic development strategy
relies heavily on fossil fuels as the main production resource, the consumption of

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122 Asian Development Review

数字 1. Carbon Dioxide Emission Trends

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OECD = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
来源: 联合国 (和) Statistics Division. UN Comtrade Database. https://comtrade.un.org (访问过 1 行进
2018).

fossil fuels has signiﬁcantly increased to a point where the global environment can
no longer sustain the accompanying GHG emissions. 自20世纪80年代以来, 担忧
for a sustainable future have gradually coalesced to form a global consensus on
the need to take action against climate change. After a series of global initiatives,
在 2015, the representatives of 195 countries agreed on the Paris Agreement at
the 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate
改变. The Paris Agreement has three main objectives: (我) limit the increase of the
global average temperature to less than 2°C above preindustrial levels, (二) 支持
adaptation and foster climate resilience, 和 (三、) assist ﬁnancial ﬂows toward
mitigation and adaptation (和 2015).

Because of the negative externalities associated with GHG emissions, 人们
outside the source country are also affected by GHG emissions. 所以, 这
international community needs to cooperate to combat climate change.

Efforts to reduce carbon dioxide (二氧化碳) emissions by developed countries
alone are not enough to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement. 相当, every
country needs to pull its weight, whether it is a developed or developing country.
数字 1 shows the global, 经合组织, and non-OECD trends of CO2 emissions, 哪个
clearly demonstrate that the efforts of developing countries are equally important
as those of developed countries. Global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion
increased from 13.9 metric gigatons (GT) 在 1971 到 20.5 GT in 1990, 和

Green Trade Patterns and Transboundary Transmission of GHGs 123

further to 32.4 GT in 2014 for an increase of 57.9% 从 1990 到 2014. 为了
period 1990–2014, OECD countries’ total CO2 emissions increased by 7.8%, 尽管
non-OECD countries’ total CO2 emissions increased by 118.5%. 在 2014, the total
CO2 emissions of the PRC reached 9.1 GT, which was an increase of 333.1% 超过
1971 级别. Total CO2 emissions of the US (5.2 GT) 和印度 (2 GT) increased by
7.8% 和 280.8%, 分别, 从 1991 到 2014 (IEA and OECD 2016). The data
show that developing countries have been emitting CO2 at an increasing rate since
2000, with non-OECD aggregate emissions exceeding those of OECD countries
自从 2005.

Developing countries are resisting the notion that all countries should bear
an equal burden in combating climate change (页 2008). They argue that as
the current climate crisis has been triggered by the past activities of developed
国家, these countries should accept their historical responsibility and bear a
greater burden of the efforts toward emissions reduction, 减轻, and adaptation.
此外, developed countries have already accumulated sufﬁcient wealth and
technological assets to adapt to climate change, whereas developing countries are
at greater risk and without adequate adaptation capacities (Ikeme 2003). 其他
important argument made by developing countries relates to the sources of CO2
排放量. 历史上, developing countries, especially the PRC, have acted as the
factory of the world, capitalizing on cheaper labor and more abundant resources
than found in developed countries. 所以, while CO2 emissions may originate
in developing countries, in many cases the ﬁnal products were exported to and
consumed by citizens of developed countries.

There have been several studies on the transboundary transfers of GHG and
CO2 emissions embodied in export products. Yunfeng and Laike (2010) examine
the PRC’s international trade and report that 10% of the PRC’s annual CO2
emissions in 1997 resulted from manufacturing exported goods; this share had
increased to 26.5% 经过 2007. 另一方面, the CO2 emissions generated in
the production of the PRC’s imported goods were equivalent to only 4.4% 的
PRC’s total CO2 emissions in 1997 和 9.1% 在 2007. 因此, the rest of the world
avoided producing 150.2 million tons of CO2 emissions in 1997 和 593 百万
tons of CO2 emissions in 2007 through trade with the PRC.

By using a trade-linked global database for CO2 emissions for 113 国家
和 57 economic sectors between 1990 和 2008, Peters et al. (2011) 显示
CO2 emissions from the production of goods and services increased from 4.3 GT in
1980 到 7.8 GT in 2008. 更远, CO2 emissions from trade in goods and services
as a share of global CO2 emissions increased from about 20% 在 1990 to about
26% 在 2008. Wiebe et al. (2012) examine the amount of CO2 emissions embodied
in international trade for 48 sectors in 53 countries and two regions from 1995 到
2005. They report that the net CO2 imports of OECD countries increased by about
80% during the review period, meaning that developed countries are externalizing
their environmental burden through international trade.

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124 Asian Development Review

Guan and Reiner (2009) assert that a signiﬁcant share of the PRC’s carbon
emissions comes from the production of goods for exporting. Using atmospheric
造型, Lin et al. (2014) 显示 36% of carbon monoxide and 17% of black
carbon emitted in the PRC in 2006 resulted mainly from the production of goods
for export.

By using input–output analysis, Meng et al. (2018) analyze the relationship
between bilateral
trade among
trade and GHG emissions. They show that
developing countries more than doubled from 2004 到 2011, while some
production activities, especially raw materials and intermediate goods production in
energy-intensive sectors, relocated from the PRC and India to other developing
国家. 因此, CO2 emissions generated in the production of goods from
less developed countries such as Bangladesh and Viet Nam are increasing.

Other research has shown that global emission transfers through trade affect
the health of people in the partner countries, even if the partner countries are not
producing goods. 因此, global emission transfers through international trade are
associated with transboundary health effects as well. As mentioned above, a recent
study by Zhang et al. (2017) shows that about 3.45 million premature deaths in 2007
were related to PM2.5. Out of total worldwide deaths caused by PM2.5, 关于 12%
(411,100) were caused by air pollutants emitted by goods and services produced in
regions other than where the deaths occurred, 和 22% (762,400) were related to
the production of goods and services in one region for consumption in another.

The argument of developing countries—that it would be unfair to point
ﬁngers at developing countries for emitting large amounts of CO2 without
examining the context—is not unfounded. 实际上, developing countries are not
opposing the global efforts to tackle climate change, but rather are asking developed
countries to support their efforts by means of ﬁnancing, capacity building, 和
technology transfer. If appropriate support can be given to developing countries, 不是
only would international cooperation on climate change progress, but developing
countries would be provided with an opportunity to employ environmentally
friendly growth strategies.

Munasinghe (1995) suggests the concept of “sustainomics,” meaning that
developing countries do not necessarily have to follow the traditional path of
development that developed countries have pursued. Based on the Environment
Kuznets Curve hypothesis, the relationship between the environment and per capita
income is an inverted-U shape. When per capita income is low, economic activities
have minimal effect on the environment, but as the economy grows, environmental
degradation is accelerated by exploiting more natural resources and emitting more
pollutants. Only at the peak of the inverted-U does the economic transition to the
service sector and the desire for a better environment gain strength (Stern 2004).

所以, Munasinghe (1995) argues that rather than reaching the peak
turning point of the Environment Kuznets Curve, developing countries could
lower the inﬂection point by tunneling through the curve. 此外, 发达

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Green Trade Patterns and Transboundary Transmission of GHGs 125

countries should aid developing countries in decoupling economic growth from
environmental degradation. International cooperation can help developing countries
follow a new path that guarantees less environmental pollution for the same level of
生产.

In order to persuade developing countries to join international agreements
supporting the new climate regime and encouraging them to reduce GHG
排放量, it is important to provide various international cooperative policy
策略. Global international trade in green products has been steadily increasing
amid global efforts to tackle climate change. 然而, green industries are scarce
in developing countries because of the lack of experts and technological assets.
Since innovative activities for promoting green technologies and green industries
require more ﬁnancial investment and are relatively risky, developing countries
with less technology than that of developed countries will face challenges. 因此,
developed countries should assist developing countries through technology transfers
and capacity building in green industries.

此外, an export-led economic growth strategy would be more
beneﬁcial for developing countries than a traditional growth strategy of developing
domestic markets. If developing countries invest more in products with lower
levels of GHG emissions, they can realize the advantage of exporting products to
further promote economic growth. 因此, international cooperation and investment
by developing countries in green industries to promote exports can lead to economic
生长, which is another justiﬁcation to initiate green growth.

三、. Classiﬁcation of Green and Non-Green Industries

Developing countries are relying heavily on trade to promote export-
oriented industries by producing cheap products and seeking a comparative
advantage in the world market. 然而, unless there is a real increase in exports,
export-led economic growth will not be possible. 所以, the opportunity
to increase the actual volume of export products serves as a strong incentive
for developing countries. 换句话说, developed countries should persuade
developing countries to participate in the global agenda to reduce GHG emissions
by promoting the concept that investments in green industries will provide more
export opportunities in the markets of developed countries, which will eventually
lead to economic growth.

Even with the importance of green and non-green trade patterns, it is quite
difﬁcult to classify industries as either green or non-green. It might be similar to
difﬁculties in deﬁning intra-industry trade versus interindustry trade, or creating an
environmental marker deﬁnition for foreign aid. For international trade, the trade
pattern that is deﬁned as intra-industry trade can be reclassiﬁed as interindustry
trade if a more detailed industry classiﬁcation is used (例如, expanding a 3-digit

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126 Asian Development Review

industry classiﬁcation system to a 7-digit system). For foreign aid, the OECD
Development Assistance Committee classiﬁes environmental aid by using the Rio
Convention markers, which deﬁne foreign aid as a “principal objective” if it shares
the objectives of the convention on biological diversity, climate change mitigation,
climate change adaptation, or the convention to combat desertiﬁcation (经合组织
2018). Even with this deﬁnition and eligibility criteria, it is quite difﬁcult to
classify a certain project as environmental aid because the decision can be made
subjectively.

In order to ﬁnd the international trade pattern of green goods and services,
I have matched the SITC Rev.2 code with the GGS classiﬁcation of the NAICS
2012.1 The US BLS classiﬁes the GGS to ﬁnd the employment share in GGS out of
total employment (US BLS 2012). This study uses the industry classiﬁcation based
on the GGS survey result.2 For international trade data, I use the UN Comtrade
database for the period 1976–2015, which is released by the UN Statistics Division.
然后, for the classiﬁcation of goods and services, I use the GGS survey conducted
by the US BLS in 2011. 然而, because the two datasets—SITC Rev.2 and
the GGS classiﬁcation—cannot be directly matched, several intermediate steps are
必需的, 如下所述.

第一的, the correspondence table of SITC Rev.2 (4-digit) and the International
Standard Industrial Classiﬁcation of All Economic Activities (ISIC) Rev.2 provided
by Muendler (2009) was used to match the classiﬁcation codes. 第二, I matched
the classiﬁcation codes by using the correspondence table of ISIC Rev.2 and ISIC
Rev.3.1.3 Third, the classiﬁcation codes were matched using the correspondence
table of ISIC Rev.3.1 and NAICS 2002. 最后, the correspondence table of NAICS
2002 和 2007 was matched with the correspondence table of NAICS 2007 和
2012 (US Census Bureau 2012). After a series of classiﬁcation code matching, 这
corresponding classiﬁcation codes of NAICS 2012 and SITC Rev.2 were ready for
使用.

The GGS section of NAICS 2012 classiﬁes industries into ﬁve different

类别:

(我)

energy from renewable resources (BLS1);

(二)

energy efﬁciency (BLS2);

1Another classiﬁcation by the Science and Technology Policy Institute in the Republic of Korea, 这是
based on the number of patent citations of 77 green technologies, also gives a useful deﬁnition of green industries. 为了
例子, there were 219 green industries with more than 250 citations out of the 1,145 industry codes of the 5-digit
Korea Standard Industry Classiﬁcation. 然而, this deﬁnition includes relatively more manufacturing industries.
See Kang (2011) for a more detailed explanation.

2The BLS estimated that GGS jobs comprised 2.4% of total employment in the US in 2012. The private and
public sectors accounted for 2.3 million and 860,300 GGS jobs, 分别; manufacturing industries accounted for
461,800 GGS jobs (US BLS 2012).

3UN Statistics Division. Central Product Classiﬁcation. https://unstats.un.org/unsd/cr/registry/regso.asp?Ci

=25&Lg=1 (访问过 10 四月 2017).

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Green Trade Patterns and Transboundary Transmission of GHGs 127

桌子 1. Distribution of Various Deﬁnitions of Green Industry

Deﬁnition (Code)

Goods

Services

全部的

United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Energy from renewable resources (BLS1)
Energy efﬁciency (BLS2)
Pollution reduction and removal, greenhouse gas reduction, 和

recycling and reuse (BLS3)

Natural resources (BLS4)
Environmental compliance, education and training, 和公众

229
50
99
88

66
0

96
10
33
34

8
45

325
60
132
122

74
45

意识 (BLS5)

NAICS = North American Industry Classiﬁcation System.
笔记: The codes presented in the table are based upon the 6-digit NAICS classiﬁcation.
来源: United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. Green Goods and Services. https://www.bls.gov/ggs/
(访问过 30 可能 2017).

(三、)

pollution reduction and removal, greenhouse gas reduction, and recycling
and reuse (BLS3);

(四号)

natural resources (BLS4); 和

(v)

environmental compliance, education and training, and public awareness
(BLS5).4

桌子 1 summarizes the distribution of various deﬁnitions of GGS. Out
的 1,082 industries in the 6-digit NAICS classiﬁcation, 325 industries were
identiﬁed as GGS by the US BLS. By aggregate deﬁnition, 229 industries in goods
production and 96 industries in the service sector were identiﬁed as GGS. For other
classiﬁcations, BLS1 includes 50 industries in goods production and 10 行业
in the service sector, whereas BLS5 includes only 45 industries in the service sector.
In order to examine the shares of green and non-green industries, the GGS
classiﬁcation was transformed into the 2-digit NAICS classiﬁcation based on green
and non-green classiﬁcation (桌子 2). Under the 2-digit NAICS classiﬁcation,
56 在......之外 63 农业, forestry, ﬁshing, and hunting industries are identiﬁed as
GGS. 此外, 115 在......之外 365 manufacturing industries are identiﬁed as GGS.
然而, since the SITC Rev.2 does not include service sector classiﬁcation codes,
the detailed classiﬁcations for the service sector are not discussed in this study.

The 4-digit SITC Rev.2 classiﬁcation was then transformed into the 1-digit
SITC Rev.2 classiﬁcation based on green and non-green classiﬁcation (桌子 3).
Out of a total of 788 行业, the number of green industries is 290 (36.8%).

4The US BLS deﬁnes GGS as “goods and services produced by an establishment that beneﬁt the environment
or conserve natural resources” (US BLS 2012, p. 6). The US BLS consults with industry groups, 政府
机构, stakeholders, and the public to identify the industries that potentially provide GGS. Establishments report
whether they produce GGS and, 如果是这样, the percentage of their revenue and employment associated with GGS products.
The US BLS website provides a more detailed deﬁnition of GGS (https://www.bls.gov/ggs/).

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128 Asian Development Review

桌子 2. Green and Non-Green Classiﬁcation by NAICS 2012

Code

描述

Green Non-Green

全部的

农业, forestry, ﬁshing, and hunting
Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction
Utilities
Construction

11
21
22
23
31–33 Manufacturing
其他的
全部的

Service

56
0
10
48
115
96
325

7
29
4
2
250
466
758

63 (88.9%)
29 (0.0%)
14 (71.4%)
50 (96.0%)
365 (31.5%)
562 (17.1%)
1,083 (30.1%)

NAICS = North American Industry Classiﬁcation System.
笔记: The codes presented in the table are based upon the 2-digit NAICS classiﬁcation.
来源: United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. Green Goods and Services. https://www.bls.gov/ggs/ (访问过
30 可能 2017).

桌子 3. Green and Non-Green Classiﬁcation by SITC Rev.2

Sector

描述

绿色的

Non-Green

全部的

0
1
2
3

4
5
6

7
8
9
全部的

Food and live animals chieﬂy for food
Beverages and tobacco
Crude materials, inedible, except fuels
Mineral fuels, lubricants and related

材料

Animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes
Chemicals and related products, nes
Manufactured goods classiﬁed chieﬂy by

材料

Machinery and transport equipment
Miscellaneous manufactured articles
Not classiﬁed elsewhere

51
0
43
0

0
62
67

43
11
61
20

18
33
124

94 (11.9%)
11 (1.4%)
104 (13.2%)
20 (2.5%)

18 (2.3%)
95 (12.1%)
191 (24.2%)

50
16
1
290 (36.8%)

109
72
7
498 (63.2%)

159 (20.2%)
88 (11.2%)
8 (1.0%)
788 (100.0%)

nes = not elsewhere speciﬁed, SITC = Standard International Trade Classiﬁcation.
笔记: The codes presented in the table are based upon the 1-digit SITC Rev.2 classiﬁcation.
来源: United Nations Statistics Division. Correspondence Tables. https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/classiﬁcations
/correspondence-tables.asp (访问过 20 可能 2017).

The highest shares of green industries are found among chemicals and related
产品 (SITC5), manufactured goods classiﬁed chieﬂy by materials (SITC6), 和
machinery and transport equipment (SITC7).

IV. Empirical Results

General Trends of Trade, Exports, and Imports

Since the number of countries with data available from the 1970s is less than
50, the sample for the analysis in this study is restricted to the period after 1980.
数字 2 shows the generally increasing trends in global exports, imports, and trade
自从 1980. For the countries covered in this study, the total amount of world trade

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Green Trade Patterns and Transboundary Transmission of GHGs 129

数字 2. Trends of World Exports, Imports, and Trade

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来源: 联合国 (和) Statistics Division. UN Comtrade Database. https://comtrade.un.org (访问过 1 行进
2018).

was about $2.9 trillion in 1980. This increased more than 13 times to about $37
trillion in 2014.

数字 3 presents the OECD shares of global exports, imports, and trade
自从 1980.5 在 2000, OECD countries accounted for about 77% of world trade.
This share fell steadily from 2000 到 2013 before increasing slightly, with trends in
the shares of exports and imports both following a similar pattern during the review
时期.

乙.

General Trends of Green Trade, Exports, and Imports

数字 4 shows the generally increasing trends in the green shares of world
exports, imports, and trade since 1980. There was a higher share of green exports
than green imports in each year during the review period.6

5This study considers OECD countries to be those that were members of the OECD in 2010: 澳大利亚,
奥地利, 比利时, 加拿大, 智利, Czech, 丹麦, 爱沙尼亚, 芬兰, 法国, 德国, 希腊, 匈牙利, 冰岛,
爱尔兰, 以色列, 意大利, 日本, the Republic of Korea, 拉脱维亚, 卢森堡, 墨西哥, 荷兰人, 新西兰,
Norway, 波兰, Portugal, 斯洛伐克, Slovenia, 西班牙, 瑞典, 瑞士, Turkey, 英国, 和
美国.

6The shares are calculated by dividing world green exports, imports, and trade by total world exports, imports,

and trade, 分别.

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130 Asian Development Review

数字 3. OECD Shares of Global Exports, Imports, and Trade

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OECD = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
来源: 联合国 (和) Statistics Division. UN Comtrade Database. https://comtrade.un.org (访问过 1 行进
2018).

数字 4. Shares of World Green Exports, Imports, and Trade

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来源: 联合国 (和) Statistics Division. UN Comtrade Database. https://comtrade.un.org (访问过 1 行进
2018).

Green Trade Patterns and Transboundary Transmission of GHGs 131

数字 5. OECD Shares of Green Exports, Imports, and Trade

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OECD = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
来源: 联合国 (和) Statistics Division. UN Comtrade Database. https://comtrade.un.org (访问过 1 行进
2018).

The share of green exports in total exports was 34.7% 在 1980 和 38.6%
在 1987. While there were ﬂuctuations over the years, an overall increasing trend
was maintained, with the green share of total exports reaching 41.5% 在 2015. 这
share of green imports in total imports shows a similar trend. 在 1980, this share
曾是 30.5% 并由 2015, it had reached 40.3%. 相似地, the green share of trade
in overall trade increased from 32.5% 在 1980 到 40.9% 在 2015.

人物 5 和 6 show the trends of green exports, imports, and trade of OECD
and non-OECD countries, 分别, 之间 1980 和 2015. These categories
are used as proxies for developed and developing countries. OECD countries show
a consistent increasing trend in green trade during the review period, whereas green
trade shares among non-OECD countries ﬂuctuated more.

For OECD countries, the shares of green exports and green imports were
37.3% 和 29.9%, 分别, 在 1980. These shares increased to 47.4% 和
42.6%, 分别, 在 2015, reﬂecting a signiﬁcant increase in green trade during
the review period. 同时, the share of green trade in total trade increased from
33.4% 在 1980 到 44.9% 在 2015.

As mentioned above, the shares of green exports and imports among non-
OECD countries ﬂuctuated signiﬁcantly between 1980 和 2015. 尤其, 这
share of green exports decreased from 1980 到 1999 and then increased afterward.
The non-OECD share of green exports in total exports in 1980 曾是 32%; this share

132 Asian Development Review

数字 6. Non-OECD Shares of Green Exports, Imports, and Trade

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OECD = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
来源: 联合国 (和) Statistics Division. UN Comtrade Database. https://comtrade.un.org (访问过 1 行进
2018).

dipped to 27.6% 在 1981 and reached a peak of 36.4% 在 1986 before falling again
到 22.9% 在 1999. 从 1999 到 2015, the non-OECD share of green exports rose
consistently, reaching 33.1% at the end of the review period. Compared with the
share of green exports, the share of green imports showed less ﬂuctuation during
the review period, increasing gradually from 31.2% 在 1980 到 36.6% 在 2015.

人物 7, 8, 和 9 show trends in the shares of green trade, exports, 和
imports, 分别, for the world, 经合组织, and non-OECD countries. 从 1980
到 2015, the shares of green trade, exports, and imports for OECD countries
were higher and increased more rapidly than those for non-OECD countries. 为了
例子, the share of green trade among OECD countries in 1980 (33.4%) 曾是
slightly higher than that for non-OECD countries (31.6%). The green trade share
of OECD countries increased on a relatively steady path to 44.9% 在 2015, 尽管
the green trade share of non-OECD countries decreased to 27.5% 在 1999 前
eventually rising to 34.7% 在 2015. 因此, the trends imply that the share of green
trade of non-OECD countries ﬂuctuated more than that of OECD countries and with
no signiﬁcant overall increase over time.

The trends of green exports and imports show patterns similar to those of
green trade for both OECD and non-OECD countries from 1980 到 2015. 为了
例子, the share of green exports of OECD countries consistently increased with

Green Trade Patterns and Transboundary Transmission of GHGs 133

数字 7. Green Trade Shares of the World, 经合组织, and Non-OECD Countries

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OECD = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
来源: 联合国 (和) Statistics Division. UN Comtrade Database. https://comtrade.un.org (访问过 1 行进
2018).

数字 8. Green Export Shares of the World, 经合组织, and Non-OECD Countries

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OECD = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
来源: 联合国 (和) Statistics Division. UN Comtrade Database. https://comtrade.un.org (访问过 1 行进
2018).

134 Asian Development Review

数字 9. Shares of Green Imports of the World, 经合组织, and Non-OECD Countries

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OECD = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
来源: 联合国 (和) Statistics Division. UN Comtrade Database. https://comtrade.un.org (访问过 1 行进
2018).

only minor exceptions during the review period, but that of non-OECD countries
ﬂuctuated, initially decreasing and then increasing.

Share of Green Trade, Exports, and Imports by Countries

人物 10, 11, 和 12 show the trends of green exports, imports, 和
trade of three countries—the Republic of Korea, the US, and the PRC—that are
each at different stages of economic development. Economic growth rates in the
Republic of Korea were among the fastest in the world during the 1970s and 1980s.
Even though the PRC would also exhibit some of the fastest economic growth in
world history, real per capita income (在 2010 US dollars) in the PRC was still
关于 $6,484 在 2015, which was below that of the Republic of Korea ($24,871).7
同时, the US was already one of the world’s leading developed countries by
the beginning of the review period in 1980.

数字 10 shows an overall increasing trend in the green trade share for the
Republic of Korea from 1980 到 2015, with more ﬂuctuations prior to 1998. 这
shares of green exports, imports, and trade all ﬂuctuated between about 25% 和

7World Bank. World Development Indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development

-indicators# (访问过 2 九月 2019).

Green Trade Patterns and Transboundary Transmission of GHGs 135

数字 10. Green Export, Import, and Trade Shares of the Republic of Korea

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来源: 联合国 (和) Statistics Division. UN Comtrade Database. https://comtrade.un.org (访问过 1 行进
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数字 11. Green Export, Import, and Trade Shares of the United States

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来源: 联合国 (和) Statistics Division. UN Comtrade Database. https://comtrade.un.org (访问过 1 行进
2018).

136 Asian Development Review

数字 12. Green Export, Import, and Trade Shares of the People’s Republic of China

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来源: 联合国 (和) Statistics Division. UN Comtrade Database. https://comtrade.un.org (访问过 1 行进
2018).

40% in the 1980s and 1990s. The share of green exports increased signiﬁcantly after
2000 to reach a peak of 49.4% 在 2012 before dipping slightly, whereas the share of
green imports bottomed out in 1998 and then hovered between 30% 和 35% 从
2000 until the end of the review period. The shares of green exports and imports in
2015 是 44.9% 和 32.8%, 分别.

The green export, import, and trade shares of the US are slightly different
from those of the Republic of Korea. 数字 11 shows that the share of green exports
and imports tended to increase signiﬁcantly in the 1980s, remained relatively stable
20世纪90年代, and then increased again from 2000 到 2015. The shares of green
exports and imports in 1981 were about 38.2% 和 28.2%, 分别, rising to
51.5% 和 44.2% 在 2015. These shares began to increase more rapidly after 2005.
数字 12 shows that the trends in the green shares of the PRC contrast
those of both the Republic of Korea and the US. 自从 1985, the earliest year for
which bilateral trade data for the PRC are available, the shares of green exports and
imports largely decreased until 2005 before starting to pick up. 此外, 这
green share values for the PRC remained lower than those of the other two countries
in the study. The PRC’s shares of green exports and imports were consistently below
30% throughout the review period. 同时, the shares of green exports of the
Republic of Korea and the US in 2015 是 45% 和 51.5%, 分别; the shares
of green imports were 32.8% 和 44.2%, 分别, in the same year. 相比之下,

Green Trade Patterns and Transboundary Transmission of GHGs 137

the PRC’s respective shares in 2015 是 32.4% for green exports and 29.8% 为了
green imports.

The varying trends observed in the shares of green trade, imports, 和
exports are largely due to the different environmental restrictions applied within
each of these three countries. 例如, 在 1970, the Environmental Protection
Agency was established in the US to regulate issues related to health and the
环境. The agency implemented several major federal laws to protect the
环境, including the Clean Air Act Amendments 1970 and the Global
Climate Protection Act 1987 (Hahn 1994). 相似地, the Republic of Korea
implemented a series of policies to protect the environment and transition to green
行业. The Framework Act on Low Carbon, Green Growth currently serves
as the cornerstone for the country’s environmental protection policies (Presidential
Commission of Future and Vision 2009).

The PRC is considered a developing country and therefore has prioritized
economic growth over environmental concerns. One example of this consideration
is the Kyoto Protocol, under which the PRC is listed as a non-Annex I country,
meaning it has no GHG emissions reduction targets. 所以, differences in
the development status of countries, levels of concern for the environment, 和
international pressure to protect the environment are reﬂected in differences in
the shares of green trade, exports, and imports between developed and developing
国家

V. 结论

This study aims to investigate global and country-level trends in green
贸易, exports, and imports by using international bilateral trade data and GGS
classiﬁcations. I found that from 1980 到 2015 the world share of green trade,
贸易, exports, and imports,
exports, and imports increased relative to total
分别. 更远,
the green shares of OECD countries, as high-income
国家, are relatively higher than those of non-OECD countries.

Three countries at different stages of economic development—the Republic
of Korea, the US, and the PRC—were examined individually, revealing different
trends during the review period in their respective shares of both green exports and
green imports. The share of green exports of the Republic of Korea increased from
28.2% 在 1980 到 44.9% 在 2015, while the share of green imports decreased from
34.8% 到 32.8% in the same period. For the US, the shares of green exports and
imports rose from 38.2% 和 28.2%, 分别, 在 1981 到 51.5% 和 44.2% 在
2015. 另一方面, the PRC’s trends were very different from those of the
Republic of Korea and the US. The shares of green exports and imports in the PRC
decreased from 39.5% 和 33.2%, 分别, 在 1986 到 32.4% 和 29.8% 在
2015.

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138 Asian Development Review

The ﬁndings of this study contribute to the literature discussed in section II.
Using various methodologies and trade-related data and input–output tables, 尽管
also taking into consideration the environmental effects, previous research showed
that international trade results in the transboundary transmission of GHG emissions
that are harmful to human health. 因此, a high share of exports of non-green goods
is closely related to the transfer of GHG-embodied products.

The country-level shares of green trade, exports, and imports have
demonstrated different trends and values since 1980, even though the overall world
shares have increased during the review period. 因此, it is necessary to investigate
the factors that determine these different patterns of green trade, exports, 和
imports by using more sophisticated econometric methodology that controls for the
independent country-speciﬁc variables. The traditional gravity model originated by
Isard (1954) can be a useful empirical model speciﬁcation in this regard. Based
on the ﬁndings of this study, promoting and supporting investment in GGS can
be a useful tool for persuading developing countries to actively participate in
international agreements to reduce GHG emissions and achieve the new climate
regime’s global temperature target.

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