结束斯里兰卡内战 - 麻省理工学院人工智能研究专业

结束斯里兰卡内战

Sumit Ganguly

抽象的: The Sri Lankan Civil War erupted in 1983 and dragged on until 2009. The origins of the con-
flict can be traced to Sri Lanka’s colonial era and subsequent postcolonial policies that had significantly
constrained the social and economic rights of the minority Tamil population. Convinced that political av-
enues for redressing extant grievances were unlikely to yield any meaningful results, a segment of the Tamil
community turned to violence precipitating the civil war. A number of domestic, 区域性的, and interna-
tional efforts to bring about a peaceful solution to the conflict all proved to be futile. A military strategy,
which involved extraordinary brutality on the part of the Sri Lankan armed forces, brought it to a close.
然而, few policy initiatives have been undertaken in its wake to address the underlying grievances of
the Tamil citizenry that had contributed to the outbreak of the civil war in the first place.

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The Sri Lankan Civil War vividly demonstrates the
potential brutality and tenuousness of efforts to end
civil wars.1 In this case, war termination was the result
of an outright military victory. But the conditions that
made it possible to end the Sri Lankan Civil War may
have been unique: a particular constellation of factors,
at systemic, 区域性的, and national levels, proved con-
ducive for the pursuit of an unbridled military cam-
paign that ended the war. At a systemic level, the ma-
jor powers, including the United States and key Euro-
pean nations, had tired of the conflict. The two major
regional powers, the People’s Republic of China (prc)
和印度, for differing reasons, chose to either sup-
port the Sri Lankan regime as it embarked on a mas-
sive military onslaught against the rebels or to remain
aloof from the conflict. Domestically, the regime that
had recently assumed power concluded that it had
found an opportune moment to unleash the full might
of its military against the insurgents. 最后,
it is unlikely that similar conditions will be present
in other contexts.

在五月 2009, after two and a half decades of spo-
radic violent conflict, the Sri Lankan Civil War, 哪个

SUMIT GANGULY, 的研究员
美国学院自 2017, 是
Professor of Political Science and
holds the Tagore Chair in Indian
Cultures and Civilizations at Indi-
ana University, 布卢明顿. 他
is the author of The Oxford Short
Introduction to Indian Foreign Policy
(2015), Deadly Impasse: Indo-Paki-
stani Relations at the Dawn of a New
世纪 (2016), and Ascending India
and Its State Capacity (with William
汤普森, 2017).

arose from the animosity between the ma-
jority Sinhalese and the minority Tam-
il populations, finally drew to a close. 这
end of this war was especially bloody, 和
charges of rampant human rights violations
on the part of the two principal parties, 这
Sri Lankan armed forces and the Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (ltte). In the final
military assault that lasted from January to
early May 2009, some seven thousand eth-
nic Tamils were killed.2 But the total num-
ber killed in the civil war is a vigorously con-
tested subject. The United Nations puts the
death toll between eighty thousand and one
hundred thousand. The Sri Lankan govern-
蒙特, 然而, challenges those figures.3
Apart from the death toll, following the ter-
mination of hostilities, as many as three
hundred thousand Tamils who had fled
the war zone were interned in overcrowded
camps.4

This essay will discuss the origins of the
Sri Lankan Civil War, briefly examine its
international dimensions (including an
abortive Indian effort to terminate the
war between 1987 和 1989), discuss the
third-party negotiations to conclude the
冲突, and focus on the politico-military
strategy that led to its end. 最后, it will
argue that the mode in which the war end-
ed may have damaged the prospects of a
lasting peace.

The origins of the Tamil-Sinhala conflict

can be traced back to Sri Lanka’s colonial
历史. During the period of British colo-
nial rule, which extended from 1815 到 1948,
the minority Tamil community seized var-
ious opportunities for economic advance-
蒙特. To that end, significant numbers of
the community had availed themselves of a
colonial education, primarily because they
had limited economic opportunities in the
regions in which they were located. 这
dominant Sinhala community, with marked
例外情况, 然而, had distanced them-
selves from the British. 不出所料,

when independence came to Sri Lanka in
1948 (largely as a consequence of British co-
lonial withdrawal from India in 1947), Tam-
ils were disproportionately represented in
public services, higher education, journal-
主义, and the legal profession.5

The Sinhala elite, who had worked with
the British from the early 1930s to bring
about an eventual transfer of power, 有
paid little heed to the inherently ethnical-
ly plural features of the country. When uni-
versal adult franchise was extended to all Sri
Lankans in 1931 under the Donoughmore
宪法, no provisions were includ-
ed to guarantee minority rights. Not sur-
prisingly, key members of both the Tam-
il and Muslim communities had protest-
ed the absence of clear-cut provisions for
the protection of minority rights. 泰米尔人,
unhappy with the constitutional dispen-
站, boycotted the elections held un-
der the aegis of this constitution. Even the
subsequent Soulbury Constitution of 1947,
which paved the way to independence, 做过
not include a bill of rights. It did, 然而,
include a clause that prohibited discrimi-
nation against any citizen on the basis of
ethnicity or religion, but this constitution-
al provision proved to be rather tenuous.
实际上, it laid the foundation for what was
soon to emerge as a unitary and majoritar-
ian state.6

Worse still, in the aftermath of inde-
彭登斯, Sri Lanka’s first prime minis-
特尔, Don Stephen Senanayake, passed leg-
islation that effectively disenfranchised a
significant segment of the Tamil commu-
本质, including the descendants of Tamils
who had been brought to Sri Lanka in the
nineteenth century as tea and coffee plan-
tation laborers. The passage of this legis-
lation gave the Sinhalese an effective two-
thirds majority in Parliament, thereby en-
suring their dominance.7

Senanayake’s successor, Solomon West
Ridgeway Bandaranaike, also exploited, 和-
til his death in 1952, the overrepresentation

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147 (1) Winter 2018Sumit Ganguly

of Tamils in both the governmental bureau-
cracies and the private sector to stoke re-
sentment among the majority communi-
蒂. Among other matters, they argued that
since Tamils were disproportionately rep-
resented in the field of higher education,
they were prone to favor fellow Tamils. Ul-
timately, they passed the Sinhala Only Act
的 1956, which effectively marginalized the
Tamil community in every possible sphere,
from employment to higher education.

Matters worsened over the next two de-
cades for the Tamil population of the coun-
尝试. One important turning point came in
1971 when the regime of Prime Minister
Sirimavo Bandaranaike introduced a sys-
tem of standardization in university ad-
使命. This procedure stipulated that
Sinhala students with lower scores could
be granted university admissions.8 Not
出奇, this policy further alienated
Tamil youth and contributed to their radi-
calization. 随后, 在 1972, the coun-
try adopted a new constitution. 在下面
the terms of this constitution, Buddhism
was given the foremost status, denigrat-
ing other faiths. This decision contribut-
ed to a milieu of growing majoritarian sen-
timent and created permissive conditions
for the growth of anti-Tamil commentary
in public discourse.9

It was against this political backdrop
那, 在 1976, a young Tamil, Velupillai
Prabhakaran, who had witnessed the anti-
Tamil riots of 1958, created the Libera-
tion Tigers of Tamil Eelam as an alterna-
tive to the moderate and agitational poli-
tics of the Tamil United Liberation Front
(tulf).10 The ltte’s political goals were
ostensibly similar to those of the tulf:
like the tulf, it had sought a separate
Tamil state. 然而, unlike the tulf,
it was prepared to wage an armed strug-
gle to achieve that goal. 任何状况之下, 后
1983, following the passage of a law that re-
quired legislators to uphold the territori-
al integrity of Sri Lanka, the tulf’s stated

goal became moot. The ltte, 然而, 关于-
mained unalterably committed to the cre-
ation of a separate Tamil state.11

Prabhakaran had apparently conclud-
ed that, after the “standardization” legis-
lation of 1971 and the republican constitu-
tion of 1972, the rights of Tamils in the coun-
try were now under serious assault. 他是
hardly alone in embracing this view of mi-
nority rights. These sentiments were wide-
ly shared among Tamil youth, who Prabha-
karan steadily recruited to the cause of a vi-
olent revolt against the country’s political
order.12
The Civil War is frequently divided into

four distinct phases, 开始于 1983 和
the anti-Tamil pogrom in the capital city
of Colombo. This first phase culminated
with the Indian intervention in the con-
flict in 1987. The second phase started in
1990 and ended in 1995 with the collapse of
the direct talks between the ltte and the
government of President Chandrika Ku-
maratunga. The third phase, 反过来, 是-
gan in 1995 and ended with the final col-
lapse of the cease-fire agreement in 2006.
The fourth and final phase began shortly
thereafter and lasted until 2009, 当。。。的时候
ltte was finally defeated.

Even though the origins of the Civil War
are widely attributed to the anti-Tamil po-
grom that had swept through the capi-
tal city of Colombo in July 1983, the cat-
alyst for the conflict had been set in mo-
tion somewhat earlier by the killing of four
policemen, 在 1979, allegedly by the ltte.
Immediately thereafter, the government
declared a state of emergency in the prov-
ince of Jaffna and in two airports near Co-
lombo and, a week later, Parliament passed
the Prevention of Terrorism Act, 哪个,
though modeled on British legislation, 在-
cluded a number of highly controversial
provisions. Among them were the author-
ity to imprison individuals accused of in-
volvement with terror for up to eighteen

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代达罗斯, 美国艺术学院学报 & SciencesEnding the Sri Lankan Civil War

months without a trial and virtual immu-
nity for security forces from prosecution.
But despite the passage of this draconi-
an legislation, matters continued to deteri-
orate. In mid-July 1983, Sri Lankan security
forces killed Charles Anton, the head of the
military wing of the ltte.13 Shortly there-
后, in retaliation for his killing, the ltte
ambushed a Sri Lankan military patrol in
the northern Sri Lankan province of Jaff-
na and killed thirteen soldiers. The regime
of President Junius Jayewardene chose to
bring the bodies of the slain soldiers to Co-
lombo for a mass funeral. This act no doubt
inflamed Sinhala sentiments and likely cre-
ated conducive conditions for a violent re-
prisal against the Tamil community. 如何-
曾经, there is evidence that elements of the
regime quickly became complicit in an or-
chestrated attack on Tamils over the course
of the next few days. Reliable reports sug-
gest that as many as two thousand Tamils
were killed in the course of a week in Co-
lombo and elsewhere. The police proved to
be passive spectators, and there is some ev-
idence that members of the armed forces
even participated in the violence.14

In the initial days after the pogrom, 在-
stead of offering some solace to the ag-
grieved Tamil community, the regime of
President Jayewardene focused on the re-
sentments of the Sinhala community. 到
no particular surprise, in the wake of the
pogrom and the governmental response,
more than one hundred thousand Tamils
were rendered homeless, and several hun-
dred thousand fled the country to India over
the next several years. 更重要的是,
the incidents served as the basis of a sub-
stantial recruitment tool for the ltte. In ef-
影响, the origins of the full-blown civil war
that came to engulf the country for the next
thirty odd years can be traced to the tragic
events of July 1983.

The pogrom in Colombo inflamed public

sentiments in India, especially among fel-

low Tamils in the southern state of Tamil
Nadu. Beyond this domestic issue, 哪个
no government in New Delhi could afford
to ignore, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi
was also concerned about growing Amer-
ican influence within Sri Lanka. India was,
大部分情况下, then at odds with the
美国. It had, for reasons of both
regional politics as well as its strategic de-
pendence on the Soviet Union, refused to
condemn the Soviet invasion and occupa-
tion of Afghanistan.15

When Indian intelligence agencies re-
ported that the United States could be seek-
ing naval facilities in the eastern port of
Trincomalee, New Delhi’s anxieties wors-
伊德. Keen on asserting India’s influence
in the domestic politics of Sri Lanka while
simultaneously addressing the concerns
of Indian Tamils, Prime Minister Gandhi
sent a diplomatic mission to Sri Lanka in
十一月 1983. The individual chosen for
this task, G. Parthasarathy, was a veteran
Indian diplomat and the prime minister’s
confidante. Parthasarathy was tasked with
offering a plan for the devolution of power
to elected regional councils in the Northern
and Eastern Provinces, where Tamils made
up the majority. Various forms of opposi-
tion from across the political spectrum, 但
primarily from the Sinhala parties, 和
lack of support from Sri Lankan President
Junius Jayewardene, effectively torpedoed
this Indian initiative.16

在 1983, President Jayewardene gave free
rein to the country’s armed forces to sup-
press Tamil militancy. The military crack-
down led to significant casualties, 包括-
ing among the civilian population. 骗局-
cerned about the possible repercussions of
this military operation on the electoral poli-
tics in Tamil Nadu, Indira Gandhi conveyed
her concerns about Tamil civilian casual-
领带. Jayewardene, 然而, rebuffed her
apprehensions. Not one to take kindly to
such a response, she granted formal autho-
rization to India’s principal counterintelli-

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147 (1) Winter 2018Sumit Ganguly

gence and counterespionage organization,
the Research and Analysis Wing, to provide
training and assistance to the various Tamil
militant groups.17

Over the next several years, the conflict
expanded and, in May 1987, the Sri Lan-
kan government launched “Operation Lib-
eration” with the goal of evicting the ltte
from the jungles of northern Sri Lanka.
The military onslaught, which was bru-
tal and included the use of barrel bombs
by the Sri Lankan air force, contributed to
a large-scale flight of Tamil civilians seek-
ing sanctuary in Tamil Nadu.18 Faced with
this exodus, the government in New Delhi
embarked on a humanitarian mission and
sent in a flotilla of ships with relief supplies.
The Sri Lankan navy, 然而, intercepted
these vessels before they entered Sri Lank-
an waters. Faced with this rebuff, India’s
policy-makers resorted to an airdrop of re-
lief supplies. The very next day, after giving
the government in Colombo a mere thirty-
five-minute notice, five Indian Antonov
An-32 aircraft accompanied by four Mirage
fighters airdropped twenty-five tons of re-
lief supplies over Jaffna.19

In an attempt to end the Sri Lankan Civil
战争, while simultaneously appeasing a sig-
nificant domestic constituency in Tamil
Nadu, the home of over sixty million Indi-
an Tamils, Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi–
having assumed the office after the assas-
sination of his mother–sought to broker
a peace deal between the ltte, five other
smaller Tamil insurgent groups, 和
regime of President Jayewardene.

Under the terms of the accord, the Sri Lan-
kan government would, following a refer-
endum, devolve power to the Northern and
Eastern Provinces; Tamil would be accord-
ed the status of an official language; the Sri
Lankan armed forces would return to the bar-
racks; and the Indian Peace Keeping Force
(ipkf) would disarm the rebel groups.20

To implement the accord, India sent in a
contingent of troops in 1987. The vast major-

ity of the various Tamil militant groups ac-
ceded to the disarmament requirements and
turned in their weaponry within the spec-
ified seventy-two hours. What India’s po-
litical leadership, not to mention its intelli-
gence services, had failed to recognize was
that the ltte was quite unreconciled to the
terms of the agreement; its members refused
to disarm and quickly turned against the
ipkf. 作为结果, the ipkf’s mission
metamorphosed from a peacekeeping to a
peace-enforcement role. 最初, the force
scored some notable successes against the
ltte. 例如, in November 1987, 后
the relentless offensive “Operation Pawan,”
it managed to mostly crush the ltte in the
Jaffna Peninsula.21 This, 然而, 没有
prove to be a decisive victory. The ltte suc-
cessfully regrouped and the ipkf became
embroiled in the Sri Lankan Civil War as
it sought to defeat the ltte. After a loss of
1,200 personnel and unable to make much
military headway against the ltte, 印度
withdrew its forces in 1990 at the insistence
of the newly elected government of Presi-
dent Ranasinghe Premadasa.22 In the waning
days of the ipkf’s presence in Sri Lanka, 这
regime started talks with the ltte. 这些,
然而, did not amount to much and ulti-
mately collapsed in June 1990.23
In the aftermath of the withdrawal of
the ipkf from Sri Lanka, the war wors-
ened considerably as neither the Tamil
militants nor the Sri Lankan regime ap-
peared interested in a political solution to
the conflict. After its military imbroglio,
Indian policy-makers also lost interest in
seeking a resolution to the conflict and In-
dian willingness to provide either moral
support or material assistance to the Tam-
ils effectively dried up. To curb any efforts
on the part of the Tamil Nadu government
to renew ties with the ltte, the Indian na-
tional government dismissed the state gov-
ernment and chose to rule the state directly
from New Delhi. The ltte’s involvement

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代达罗斯, 美国艺术学院学报 & SciencesEnding the Sri Lankan Civil War

in the assassination of Prime Minister Ra-
jiv Gandhi during the 1991 election cam-
paign further alienated the government in
New Delhi from the Tamil cause.

同时, in Sri Lanka, the ltte re-
grouped once again and ratcheted up its
military campaign. 在 1993, it killed Presi-
dent Ranasinghe Premadasa in a bomb at-
tack. 的确, it was not until the election of
President Chandrika Kumaratunga in Au-
gust 1994 that some hopes of a negotiat-
ed solution to the conflict were rekindled.
In January 1995, the Kumaratunga govern-
ment reached a cease-fire agreement with
the ltte. It also promised that a new set
of proposals for the devolution of power
would soon be offered. This effort, 然而,
proved to be futile when, 同年,
the ltte sank a Sri Lankan naval craft.24

作为回应, the Kumaratunga regime
launched a military operation against the
ltte bastions in Jaffna in October 1995.
This military action, known as “Operation
Riviresa” (“rays of sunlight”), was large-
ly a tactical success. 然而, it left mul-
tiple army brigades stranded on the pen-
insula where they could only be supplied
through the sea or air. The ltte was thus
able to quickly isolate the Sri Lankan secu-
rity forces and overrun them.25

For the next several years, war raged in
the north and the east of the country. 在
一月 1998, three ltte suicide bombers
attacked the most venerable Buddhist site,
the Temple of the Tooth, 哪个, 符合-
ing to devout Buddhists, is the repository
of a tooth of the Lord Buddha. Retaliato-
ry raids on Tamil temples and homes fol-
lowed.26 Over the course of the next three
年, the ltte’s actions became even
more brazen. Two incidents in particular
are worth noting. The first was a mostly
abortive suicide attack on President Chan-
drika Kumaratunga in December 1999,
though it left her wounded and eventual-
ly led to the loss of sight in one eye.27 The
second episode proved to be costly both in

terms of human life and property: an at-
tack on the principal airport in Colombo
that led to the destruction of nearly half of
the fleet of the government-run Sri Lan-
kan Airlines.28 In the wake of these vicious
attacks, the government of President Ku-
maratunga reached out to Norway to me-
diate a peace process. The Norwegians be-
came involved in 2000 and started discus-
sions both with her regime and the ltte.29
In February 2002, for reasons that are not
entirely clear, the ltte held out the pros-
pect of a cease-fire, which Norwegian medi-
ators managed to broker between the ltte
and the government of Sri Lanka. Under the
aegis of this agreement, the road linking
Jaffna to the rest of Sri Lanka was opened
for the first time in twelve years, passen-
ger flights to Jaffna were resumed, 和
government lifted its ban on the ltte. 毛皮-
瑟莫雷, at least in principle, the ltte ap-
peared to have dropped its demand for the
creation of a separate state.30

Altogether, Norway hosted six rounds of
talks, but the process collapsed in March
2003.31 The talks unraveled largely because
the United States had proscribed the ltte
as a terrorist organization. 因此, 它
was not permitted to participate in a pre-
paratory donors’ conference in Washing-
吨, 直流电. Denied this opportunity and con-
cerned about its loss of legitimacy as an in-
ternational actor, the ltte announced
their unilateral withdrawal from the nego-
tiations in April 2003.32 此外, hav-
ing previously agreed with Colombo to “ex-
plore a solution founded on the principle
of internal self-determination in areas of
historical habitation of the Tamil-speaking
peoples, based on a federal structure within
a united Sri Lanka,” the ltte now made the
resumption of talks conditional on propos-
als for an interim, independent governance
arrangement in the Northern and Eastern
Provinces of Sri Lanka.33 Subsequent to the
termination of these talks, some mediated
efforts took place in 2006. 然而, none

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147 (1) Winter 2018Sumit Ganguly

of these proved to be especially fruitful. 一
of them, held in Geneva in February, saw
more mutual recriminations rather than
meaningful dialogue. 其他, scheduled
in Oslo in November 2006, saw the ltte
withdraw as it deemed the Sri Lankan ne-
gotiating team to be too low-ranking.34 The
fundamental problem with these negotia-
tions was that the two sides faced an un-
bridgeable chasm: they had radically dif-
ferent goals. The Sri Lankan government,
regardless of regime, wanted to preserve a
unitary state, and the ltte remained com-
mitted to the creation of a separate Tamil
状态. It is worth noting here that, 尽管
the concerted Norwegian efforts to play
the role of an honest broker, they ultimate-
ly failed. The “treatment regime” for civil
wars clearly did not prove up to the task in
the Sri Lankan context.35

Following the collapse of negotiations,
the ltte periodically stepped up its at-
tacks, engaged in a series of successful and
unsuccessful political assassinations (在-
cluding the killing of Tamil foreign min-
ister Lakshman Kadirgamar at his home
in Colombo in 2005), and fought off a va-
riety of military operations launched by
the Sri Lankan regime.

But then the Sri Lankan Supreme Court
ruled that President Kumaratunga’s term
had ended and in the new presidential elec-
的, a hard-line presidential candidate,
Mahinda Rajapaksa, was elected to office.
Over the course of the next few years, Ra-
japaksa, in conjunction with his brother,
Gotabhaya, who was made the minister of
防御, brought about significant changes
in military organization and strategy that
would ring the eventual death-knell of the
ltte. The government, upon assuming of-
fice, had spelled out a two-track “peace
process” strategy. At one level, it pursued
an aggressive military strategy and, at an-
其他, it offered a narrow negotiating agen-
da on how to best implement an effective
cease-fire agreement.36

The fundamental difference between
the Rajapaksa regime and its predecessors,
然而, lay in its willingness to grant carte
blanche to the military to fight the ltte to
the end, regardless of the economic, 胡-
男人, and diplomatic costs. More specifi-
卡莉, it allowed the Sri Lankan military not
to differentiate between the Tamil popu-
lation and ltte operatives in rebel-con-
trolled areas. It also permitted anti-ltte
Tamil militants to carry out punitive op-
erations at will. 此外, it relied on
the state-controlled media to carry out a
deft propaganda campaign that grossly ex-
aggerated ltte casualties in an attempt
to bolster both public support for mili-
tary operations and to boost the morale
of its soldiers. 最后, the armed forces,
首次, carried out a mixed-mil-
itary strategy combining guerrilla warfare
with large-scale artillery assaults support-
ed by air raids. All of these factors created
conducive conditions for the termination
of the long, drawn-out civil war.37
How did this brutal civil war finally come

to a close? In considerable part, it stemmed
from three sources. At an international level,
sympathy for the ltte had receded in the
wake of the September 11 attacks on the
United States and global sentiment against
the use of terror had welled up. Earlier, 在
1996, 美国. Department of State had
designated the ltte as a “foreign terror-
ist organization,“ 和, 在 2000, 那个单位-
ed Kingdom followed suit. These decisions
hindered the fund-raising efforts of the or-
ganization and hobbled transnational fi-
nancial transfers.

At a regional level, despite the presence
of a substantial Tamil community in In-
dia, overt support for the ltte within the
community had waned since the ltte’s in-
volvement in the assassination of Prime
Minister Rajiv Gandhi. No national gov-
ernment in New Delhi had any residual
sympathy for the organization.

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最后, when the regime of President Ma-
hinda Rajapaksa chose to start the final mil-
itary onslaught against the ltte, it found
significant support, especially in the form
of substantial amounts of military equip-
蒙特, including six f7 fighter jets, 从
People’s Republic of China. The prc also
provided millions of dollars’ worth of oth-
er military equipment and about $1 十亿
in overall assistance.38All three factors, 到
varying degrees, played critical roles in en-
suring the success of the military campaign
against the ltte.

The critical turning point in ending the
civil war came in 2006 when the ltte, 是-
lieving that military victory was actual-
ly within its grasp, broke off the Norwe-
gian-brokered cease-fire agreement and
started what is popularly referred to as
the Fourth Eelam War. It was at this point
that the Sri Lankan regime made a calcu-
lated decision to annihilate the ltte. 到
that end, the regime also decided to allo-
cate as much as 3.3 percent of its gdp in
2007 to military spending (从 2.8 每-
分在 2006).39 This increase in the mili-
tary budget also enabled an expansion of
the armed forces from 120,000 人员
在 2005 到 300,000 在 2009.

当然, the ltte, despite its decision
to resume fighting, had been weakened as
early as 2004 with the defection of an im-
portant leader, Vinayagamoorthy Mura-
litharan, popularly known as “Colonel
Karuna,” along with some six thousand
ltte cadres. Because he provided signif-
icant tactical intelligence to the Sri Lan-
kan armed forces, his defection was signif-
icant militarily. The scale of the defection
also suggested to the Sri Lankan govern-
ment that the popular legitimacy that the
ltte had once enjoyed was now waning.
Battlefield innovation also aided the
Sri Lankan armed forces in its mission to
crush the ltte. The army used small, 高的-
ly trained, mobile groups to infiltrate the
ltte’s front lines. These groups attacked

high-value targets, provided real-time in-
telligence, and disrupted the ltte’s lines
of resupply and communications. 他们
were also trained and authorized to call
in precision air, 炮兵, and mortar at-
tacks on ltte units.40 Additionally, 这
Sri Lankan armed forces launched opera-
tions that effectively hunted down and de-
stroyed the ltte’s merchant navy. The de-
ployment of high-speed coastal craft and
accompanying tactics also led to the de-
struction of the ltte’s substantial fleet of
maritime suicide vessels.41

Military innovation alone, 然而, 能-
not explain the battlefield success of the Sri
Lankan armed forces. As a number of repu-
table human rights organizations and news
outlets have shown, the military success
must also be attributed to the sheer ruth-
lessness of the tactics that were employed.
These tactics demonstrated a flagrant disre-
gard for established norms and conventions
governing the use of force. It involved the
targeting of civilian areas where ltte cad-
res may have taken refuge, the shelling of
hospitals where wounded ltte forces were
being treated, and the summary executions
of any number of individuals suspected of
being ltte sympathizers.42

The ltte also resorted to brutal military
tactics as the war drew to a close. Its lead-
ers deliberately placed civilians in the line of
fire, fully expecting the enemy to fire upon
他们, causing substantial casualties.43 They
hoped these civilian losses would generate
international opprobrium against the gov-
ernment and its security forces.44

Though the war resulted in the eviscera-
tion of the ltte, the underlying grievanc-
es that had precipitated the civil war large-
ly remained unaddressed. Significantly, 在
the wake of the military victory there was
an unbridled sense of majoritarian ethnic
triumphalism. Only under significant inter-
national pressure did President Rajapaksa
appoint a Lessons Learned and Reconcili-
ation Commission in May 2010. 康姆-

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147 (1) Winter 2018Sumit Ganguly

mission released an interim report in Sep-
木材 2011 and then a final report in No-
vember of the same year, both of which
came under considerable criticism from
global human rights organizations for fail-
ing to dispassionately examine allegations
of rampant human rights violations during
the final phases of the conflict. More to the
观点, critics underscored a distinct progov-
ernment bias in the final report.45 Its short-
comings aside, the report did have a range
of practical suggestions for promoting rec-
onciliation. Among these were the need to
bring about a reconciliation with the Tam-
il politicians of the Northern and Eastern
Provinces, the election of provincial gov-
政府, the resettling of the internal-
ly displaced, and suitable Tamil represen-
tation in the armed forces and the govern-
ment.46 These recommendations, 为了
大部分, have yet to be implemented.

An extremely determined and single-

minded military effort, facilitated by region-
al and international conditions, brought an
end to the civil war. The military offensive
of the Sri Lankan armed forces against the
ltte took place against a particular political
backdrop and at a specific historical junc-
真实; it was a moment when global toler-
ance for any political movement embracing
terror was at its lowest ebb in years.

全球范围, the United States and the Eu-
ropean Union did little to rein in the Sri
Lankan government as it embarked on the
final stages of its military offensive. Region-
al states, such as the prc and Pakistan, 交流电-
tively supported the government.47 India,
which could have exerted some restraint
on the regime, chose not to do so. The mil-
itary victory of the Sri Lankan armed forces
over the ltte was complete and unequivo-
卡尔. 明显地, seeking the total destruction
of an adversary is one possible strategy for
successful civil war termination.

There is little or no question that the ltte
as a viable military force has been effective-

ly destroyed. As argued earlier, a combina-
tion of international, 区域性的, and domes-
tic forces all converged and facilitated the
military defeat of the ltte. The most sig-
nificant of these factors, 然而, 是
emergence of a regime in Sri Lanka pre-
pared to brook no opposition in its goal to
terminate the protracted conflict. The suc-
cessful defeat of the ltte and the concom-
itant end to the civil war initially generat-
ed widespread support and popular enthu-
siasm for the regime, especially among the
Sinhala population of the country.

Despite its popularity in the aftermath of
the civil war, the Rajapaksa regime suffered
an unexpected defeat in 2015. The common
opposition candidate, Maithripala Sirise-
已经, received 51.3 percent of the popular vote.
Rajapaksa’s ethnic triumphalism had alien-
ated both the Tamil and Muslim minorities
and his grasp on the Sinhalese majority had
slipped due to charges of widespread cor-
ruption and nepotism.48

Despite the evisceration of the ltte and
the emergence of a new regime, the per-
ceived injustices of the Tamil community
that had set in motion the social and po-
litical forces precipitating the civil war, 为了
大部分, remain unaddressed. 这
new regime, to its credit, established a new
Office of National Unity and Reconcili-
化, which primarily deals with the re-
lease of detainees and the return of civilian
land that the military had occupied. 这
office has only been partially successful
in addressing these matters. Yet the Pre-
vention of Terrorism Act, which granted
the government sweeping powers of arrest
and detention, still remains in force, 和
many who had been incarcerated under its
auspices have yet to be released.49

Much disaffection with the present Sri
Lankan regime of Maithripala Sirisena
still pervades the Tamil diaspora commu-
nities.50 His stated willingness to address
the concerns of the diaspora notwithstand-
英, it is far from certain that he will be able

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代达罗斯, 美国艺术学院学报 & SciencesEnding the Sri Lankan Civil War

to win the necessary domestic political sup-
port to effectively pursue such a strategy.
Significant social forces and institution-
al barriers that remain could hobble any
steps toward reconciliation. One of these,
当然, is the Buddhist clergy, who re-
main a significant political entity in the
country and have little sympathy for their
Tamil compatriots.51

Another institutional barrier in the path-
way toward reconciliation is the uniformed
军队. Over the course of this protract-
ed civil war and especially during the re-
gime of President Rajapaksa, the military
became a vital political actor. The leeway
it was granted contributed dramatically to
the militarization of the country. Shrinking

the role and the scope of the armed forces
will prove to be no easy task.52 Under cur-
rent conditions, it is hard to envisage how
a renewed violent Tamil opposition could
again emerge. In the absence of concert-
ed efforts to address the human and mate-
rial costs of the civil war and its anteced-
恩特斯, Sri Lanka is likely to remain a deeply
fractured nation riven with profound eth-
nic cleavages. The shared sense of nation-
al identity that Francis Fukuyama deems so
necessary to underpin a state’s legitimacy
does not exist in Sri Lanka.53 Instead, sig-
nificant segments of the Tamil community
remain disaffected from the Sinhala-domi-
nated Sri Lankan state.

尾注
1 詹姆斯·D. Fearon, “Civil War & the Current International System,代达罗斯 146 (4) (落下 2017).
2 Matthew Weaver and Gethin Chamberlain, “Sri Lanka Declares End to the Tamil Tigers,”

守护者, 可能 19, 2009.

3 See International Coalition for the Responsibility to Protect, “Crisis in Sri Lanka,” http://

www.responsibilitytoprotect.org/index.php/crises/crisis-in-sri-lanka.

4 Somini Sengupta, “War’s End in Sri Lanka: Bloody Family Triumph,“ 纽约时报, 可能

19, 2009.

5 Stanley J. 添加, 斯里兰卡: Ethnic Fratricide and the Dismantling of Democracy (芝加哥: 大学-

芝加哥大学出版社, 1986).

6 David Little, 斯里兰卡: The Invention of Enmity (华盛顿, 华盛顿特区: United States Institute of

和平, 1994), 54–55.

7 同上。, 56.
8 A. Jeyaratnam Wilson, The Break-Up of Sri Lanka: The Tamil-Sinhala Conflict (伦敦: C. Hurst

and Company, 1988), 131.

9 Neil DeVotta, “The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam and the Lost Quest for Separatism in

斯里兰卡,” 亚洲调查 49 (6) (2009): 1021–1051.

10 For a detailed discussion of the ltte’s adoption of a terrorist strategy, see P. Sahadevan, “On
Not Becoming a Democrat: The ltte’s Commitment to Armed Struggle,” International Studies
32 (2) (1995): 249–281.

11 Paul Moorcraft, Total Destruction of the Tamil Tigers: The Rare Victory of Sri Lanka’s Long War (Barn-

sley, 英国: Pen and Sword, 2012), 13.

12 中号. 右. Narayan Swamy, Tigers of Lanka: From Boys to Guerillas (新德里: Konark Publishers,

1995), 49–92.

13 Thomas A. Marks and Tej Pratap Singh Brar, “Sri Lanka: State Response to the Liberation Ti-
gers of Tamil Eelam as an Illicit Power Structure,” in Impunity: Countering Illicit Power in War and

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147 (1) Winter 2018Sumit Ganguly

过渡, 编辑. Michelle Hughes and Michael Miklaucic (华盛顿, 华盛顿特区: Center for Com-
plex Operations, 国防大学, 2016).

14 Charles Haviland, “Remembering Sri Lanka’s Black July,” bbc News, 七月 23, 2013, http://

www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-23402727. See also Marks and Brar, “Sri Lanka.”

15 Sumit Ganguly, The Oxford Short Introduction to Indian Foreign Policy (新德里: Oxford Univer-

城市出版社, 2014).

16 Much of this discussion has been derived from Rajat Ganguly, Kin State Intervention in Ethnic

Conflicts: Lessons from South Asia (新德里: 智者, 1998).

17 Harkirat Singh, Intervention in Sri Lanka: The IPKF Experience Retold (新德里: 马诺哈尔, 2007), 22.
18 Swamy, Tigers of Lanka, 235.
19 同上。, 236.
20 Ralph P. Premdas and S. 瓦. 右. Samarsinghe, “Sri Lanka’s Ethnic Conflict: The Indo-Lanka

Peace Accord,” 亚洲调查 28 (6) (六月 1988): 676–690.

21 Dilip Bobb, “A Bloodied Accord,” India Today, 十一月 15, 1987.
22 辛格, Intervention in Sri Lanka.
23 Gamini Keerawalla, Post-War Sri Lanka: Is Peace a Hostage of Military Victory? Dilemmas of Recon-
ciliation, Ethnic Cohesion and Peace-Building, Research Paper No. 8 (Colombo: International Cen-
ter for Ethnic Studies, 2013), 4.

24 约翰·F. Burns, “Rebels Hijack Civilian Ferry in Sri Lanka,“ 纽约时报, 八月 31, 1995.
25 Marks and Brar, “Sri Lanka.”
26 “Eleven Killed in Truck Bombing at Sri Lanka Buddhist Site,“ 纽约时报, 一月 26,

1998.

27 Dexter Filkins and Waruna Karunatilake, “Sri Lankan President Wounded in Suicide Bomber

攻击,” The Los Angeles Times, 十二月 19, 1999.

28 Nirupama Subramanian, “ltte Storms Colombo Airport, Destroys 11 Planes,” The Hindu,

七月 25, 2001.

29 Gunnar Sørbø, Jonathan Goodhand, Bart Klem, 等人。, Pawns of Peace: Evaluation of Norwegian
Peace Efforts in Sri Lanka, 1997–2009 (Oslo: Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation,
2011), 33–34.

30 The sincerity of this shift is debatable. Sandra Destradi and Johannes Vullers, The Consequences
of Failed Mediation in Civil Wars: Assessing the Sri Lankan Case, giga Working Papers 202 (Ham-
burg: German Institute for International and Area Studies, 2012).

31 Shivshankar Menon, 选择: Inside the Making of India’s Foreign Policy (华盛顿, 华盛顿特区: 这

布鲁金斯学会出版社, 2016), 91.

32 Sørbø et al., Pawns of Peace, 44.
33 同上。, 41.
34 Destradi and Vullers, The Consequences of Failed Mediation in Civil Wars, 11.
35 Richard Gowan and Stephen John Stedman, “处理民事问题的国际制度

战争: 1988–2017，”代达罗斯 147 (1) (冬天 2018).

36 Albert Wesley Harris, “War Termination in Sri Lanka,” Studies in Sociology of Science 3 (3) (2012):

68–78.

37 DeVotta, “The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam and the Lost Quest for Separatism in Sri

兰卡,” 1042.

38 Peter Popham, “How Beijing Won Sri Lanka’s Civil War,” The Independent, 可能 22, 2010.

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39 Saroja Selvanathan and Eliyathamby A. Selvanathan, “Defence Expenditures and Economic
生长: A Case Study of Sri Lanka Using Causal Analysis,” International Journal of Development
学习 4 (2) (2014): 69–76.

40 Many of these operational details have been drawn from Peter Layton, “How Sri Lanka Won
the War,” The Diplomat, 四月 9, 2015, http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/how-sri-lanka-won
-the-war/.

41 Marks and Brar, “Sri Lanka.”
42 哈里斯, “War Termination in Sri Lanka,” 73.
43 Jayadeva Uyangoda, “Sri Lanka in 2009: From Civil War to Political Uncertainties,” 亚洲调查

50 (1) (2010): 104.

44 哈里斯, “War Termination in Sri Lanka,” 72.
45 Amnesty International, When Will They Get Justice? Failures of Sri Lanka’s Lessons Learned and Rec-

onciliation Commission (伦敦: Amnesty International, 2011).

46 Alyssa Ayres, “Sri Lanka’s Victory for Democracy,” Forbes, 一月 9, 2015, http://万维网
.forbes.com/sites/alyssaayres/2015/01/09/sri-lankas-victory-for-democracy/#55a940a02572.

47 Popham, “How Beijing Won Sri Lanka’s Civil War.”
48 Chandra R. De Silva, “Sri Lanka in 2015: A Year of Change,” 亚洲调查 56 (1) (2016): 199–203.
49 同上。, 202.
50 “Sri Lankan Govt Keen to Reconcile with Tamil Diaspora Including Extremist Groups,” Daily

News and Analysis, 六月 13, 2015.

51 斯坦利·杰亚拉贾·坦比亚, Buddhism Betrayed? 宗教, Politics and Violence in Sri Lanka (芝加哥:

芝加哥大学出版社, 1992).

52 Taylor Hibbert, “Militarization in Sri Lanka Continues,” The Diplomat, 二月 9, 2016, http://

thediplomat.com/2016/02/militarization-in-sri-lanka-continues/.

53 弗朗西斯·福山, “最后一次英国内战,代达罗斯 147 (1) (冬天 2018).

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147 (1) Winter 2018Sumit Ganguly
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