The Review of Economics and Statistics VOL. CV MARCH 2023 NUMBER 2 THE TWO-MARGIN PROBLEM IN INSURANCE MARKETS Michael Geruso, Timothy J. Layton, Grace McCormack, and Mark Shepard* Abstract—Insurance markets often feature consumer sorting along both an extensive margin (whether to buy) and an intensive margin (which plan to buy). We present a new graphical theoretical framework that extends a workhorse model to incorporate both

The Review of Economics and Statistics VOL. CV MAY 2023 NUMBER 3 PARTISAN BIAS, ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS, AND HOUSEHOLD SPENDING Atif Mian, Amir Sufi, and Nasim Khoshkhou* Abstract—The well-documented rise in political polarization among the U.S. electorate over the past 20 years has been accompanied by a substantial increase in the effect of partisan bias on survey-based measures of economic expectations. Individuals have a more optimistic

STRATEGIC CITATION: A REASSESSMENT Jeffrey Kuhn, Kenneth Younge, and Alan Marco* Abstract—The United States patent system is unique in that it requires appli- cants to cite documents they know to be relevant to the examination of their patent applications. Lampe (2012) presents evidence that applicants strate- gically withhold 21%–33% of relevant citations from patent examiners, suggesting that many patents are fraudulently obtained. We challenge this

SURVIVAL PESSIMISM AND THE DEMAND FOR ANNUITIES Cormac O’Dea and David Sturrock* Abstract—The “annuity puzzle” refers to the fact that annuities are rarely purchased despite the longevity insurance they provide. Most explanations for this puzzle assume that individuals have accurate expectations about their future survival. We provide evidence that individuals misperceive their mortality risk and study the demand for annuities in a setting where annu-

TAX PROGRESSIVITY AND SELF-EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS Wiji Arulampalam and Andrea Papini* Abstract—Analysis of the relationship between taxes and self-employment should account for the interplay between responses in self-employment and wage employment. 为此, we estimate a two-state multispell duration model which accounts for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity using a large longitudinal administrative data set for Norway for 1993 到 2011. Our findings confirm theoretical

The Review of Economics and Statistics VOL. CIV NOVEMBER 2022 NUMBER 6 COLLECTIVE REPUTATION IN TRADE: EVIDENCE FROM THE CHINESE DAIRY INDUSTRY Jie Bai, Ludovica Gazze, and Yukun Wang* Abstract—The existence of collective reputation implies an important ex- ternality. Among firms trading internationally, quality shocks about one firm’s products could affect the demand of other firms from the same origin country. We study such a

The Review of Economics and Statistics VOL. CIV MAY 2022 NUMBER 3 DELIVERING EDUCATION TO THE UNDERSERVED THROUGH A PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP PROGRAM IN PAKISTAN Felipe Barrera-Osorio, 大卫·S。. Blakeslee, Matthew Hoover, Leigh Linden, Dhushyanth Raju, and Stephen P. Ryan* Abstract—We evaluate a program that recruited local entrepreneurs to open and operate new schools in 200 underserved villages in Sindh, 巴基斯坦. School operators received a per

The Review of Economics and Statistics VOL. CIV SEPTEMBER 2022 NUMBER 5 AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF INTERNATIONAL GROWTH DYNAMICS FOR LONG-HORIZON FORECASTING Ulrich K. 穆勒, 詹姆斯·H. Stock, and Mark W. Watson* Abstract—We develop a Bayesian latent factor model of the joint long-run evolution of GDP per capita for 113 countries over the 118 years from 1900 到 2017. We find considerable heterogeneity in rates

The Review of Economics and Statistics VOL. CIV JANUARY 2022 NUMBER 1 SPILLOVER EFFECTS OF EARLY-LIFE MEDICAL INTERVENTIONS N. Meltem Daysal, Marianne Simonsen, Mircea Trandafir, and Sanni Breining* Abstract—We investigate the effects of early-life medical treatments on the treated children and their families. We use a regression discontinuity design that exploits changes in medical treatments across the very low birth weight (VLBW) cutoff. Using administrative

THE REFLECTION EFFECT FOR HIGHER-ORDER RISK PREFERENCES Han Bleichrodt and Paul van Bruggen* Abstract—Higher-order risk preferences are important determinants of eco- nomic behavior. We apply insights from behavioral economics: we measure higher-order risk preferences for pure gains and losses. We find a reflec- tion effect not only for second-order risk preferences, as did Kahneman and Tversky (1979), but also for higher-order risk preferences: we find

The Review of Economics and Statistics VOL. CIV JULY 2022 NUMBER 4 CAN FEMALE DOCTORS CURE THE GENDER STEMM GAP? EVIDENCE FROM EXOGENOUSLY ASSIGNED GENERAL PRACTITIONERS Julie Riise, Barton Willage, and Alexander Willén* Abstract—We use exogenously assigned general practitioners to study the effects of female role models on girls’ educational outcomes. Girls who are exposed to female general practitioners are more likely to sort into

EFFECTS OF PEERS AND RANK ON COGNITION, PREFERENCES, AND PERSONALITY Utteeyo Dasgupta, Subha Mani, Smriti Sharma, and Saurabh Singhal* Abstract—We exploit the variation in admission cutoffs across colleges at a leading Indian university to estimate the causal effects of enrolling in a selective college on cognitive attainment, economic preferences, and Big Five personality traits. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that enrolling in a

FIGHT OR FLIGHT: ENDOGENOUS TIMING IN CONFLICTS Boris van Leeuwen, Theo Offerman, and Jeroen van de Ven* Abstract—We study a dynamic game in which players compete for a prize. In a waiting game with two-sided private information about strength lev- 这, players choose fighting, fleeing, or waiting. Players earn a “deterrence value” on top of the prize if their opponent escapes without a battle. 我们

WHY HAS THE U.S. ECONOMY STAGNATED SINCE THE GREAT RECESSION? Yunjong Eo and James Morley* Abstract—Since the Great Recession in 2007–2009, 我们. real GDP has failed to return to its previously projected path, a phenomenon widely asso- ciated with secular stagnation. We investigate whether this stagnation was due to hysteresis effects from the Great Recession, a persistent negative output gap following the recession, or slower

INTERPRETING OLS ESTIMANDS WHEN TREATMENT EFFECTS ARE HETEROGENEOUS: SMALLER GROUPS GET LARGER WEIGHTS Tymon Słoczy´nski* Abstract—Applied work often studies the effect of a binary variable (“treat- ment”) using linear models with additive effects. I study the interpretation of the OLS estimands in such models when treatment effects are hetero- geneous. I show that the treatment coefficient is a convex combination of two parameters, which under

The Review of Economics and Statistics VOL. CIV MARCH 2022 NUMBER 2 BETTER, FASTER, STRONGER: GLOBAL INNOVATION AND TRADE LIBERALIZATION Federica Coelli, Andreas Moxnes, and Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe* Abstract—This paper estimates the effect on innovation of increased market access facilitated by trade liberalization. We use a novel empirical design that exploits tariff cuts during the 1990s, along with detailed data on inno- vation among firms

The Review of Economics and Statistics VOL. CIII OCTOBER 2021 NUMBER 4 DO PEOPLE AVOID MORALLY RELEVANT INFORMATION? EVIDENCE FROM THE REFUGEE CRISIS Eleonora Freddi* Abstract—Combining click data from a Swedish newspaper and adminis- trative data on asylum seekers in Sweden, I examine whether a larger pres- ence of refugees in a municipality induces people to avoid news that may encourage welcoming the newcomers. Exploiting

The Review of Economics and Statistics VOL. CIII JULY 2021 NUMBER 3 THE VIRTUOUS CYCLE OF PROPERTY Marco Fabbri and Giuseppe Dari-Mattiacci* Abstract—This paper shows that formalizing private property rights has a positive effect on the propensity to respect the property of others. We study a recent large-scale land tenure reform in West Africa that was the first of its kind to be implemented as