Demographic Dividends Revisited - 麻省理工学院人工智能研究专业

Demographic Dividends Revisited
∗
JEFFREY G. WILLIAMSON

This paper revisits demographic dividend issues after almost 2 decades of debate.
在 1998, David Bloom and I used a convergence model to estimate the impact
of demographic-transition-driven age structure effects and calculated what the
literature has come to call the “demographic dividend.” These early estimates
seem to be similar to those coming from more recent overlapping generation
型号, when properly estimated. Research has shown that the demographic
dividend is not simply a labor participation rate effect, but also a growth effect.
Life-cycle savings, investment deepening, foreign capital ﬂows, and school-
ing have all been greatly affected by the demographic transition. The paper
discusses just how much of these positive growth effects are based on accel-
erating human capital accumulation induced by demand-side quality–quantity
trade-offs versus a co-movement between demographic transitions and public
schooling supply-side expansions. Since emigration has been driven in part by
demography, it has wasted some of the demographic dividend by brain drain.
此外, within-country rural–urban migrations have also been driven in
part by demographic transitions with different spatial timing. 最后, the paper
shows how lifetime—not just annual—income inequality has been inﬂuenced
by demographic transitions.

关键词: demographic transitions, demographic dividends, 生长, 不等式,
亚洲
JEL codes: J10, O11, O15, O40, O53

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我. Looking Backwards: The Demographic Dividend Convergence Model

Back in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, pessimists believed that rapid population
growth in the Third World was immiserizing because it tended to overwhelm the
contributions of technical change and capital accumulation (Coale and Hoover 1958,
Ehrlich 1968). Optimists believed that rapid population growth helped an economy
capture economies of scale from market size and promoted both technological
and institutional innovation (Kuznets 1967, Boserup 1981, 西蒙 1981). 研究
culminating in the late 1980s defeated both views—population growth was shown
to have no signiﬁcant impact on economic growth, 积极或消极 (Kelley

∗Jeffrey Williamson is the Laird Bell Professor of Economics, emeritus, of Harvard University and an Honorary Fellow
of the Economics Department at the University of Wisconsin. This paper draws heavily on my previous publications
cited in the text, some of which have been with collaborators who have my thanks: David Bloom, Timothy Hatton,
and Matthew Higgins. 此外, the comments of Noel de Dios, John Nye, Xin Meng, Feng Wang, Andy Mason,
participants at the Asian Development Review conference held in Manila on 25–26 March 2013, and the journal’s
referees are gratefully appreciated.

Asian Development Review, 卷. 30, 不. 2, PP. 1–25

C(西德:3) 2013 Asian Development Bank
and Asian Development Bank Institute

2 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT REVIEW

1988). These studies were typically based on cross-country regressions of per capita
income growth on population growth, controlling for a variety of other inﬂuences.
As Allen Kelley and Robert Schmidt (1995, p. 543) 把它:

Possibly the most inﬂuential statistical ﬁnding that has shaped the
“population debates” in recent decades is the failure, 在以上
a dozen studies using cross-country data, to unearth a statistically
signiﬁcant association between the growth rates of population and of
per capita output.

This ﬁnding was surprising, but it was unclear then whether it arose be-
cause population truly had no effect on economic growth or because the test had
been somehow misspeciﬁed. Work immediately following decomposed population
growth into its fertility and mortality components and examined their independent
effects on economic growth (Coale 1986, Bloom and Freeman 1986, 巴洛 1994,
Brander and Dowrick 1994, Kelley and Schmidt 1995). These studies found that
measures of fertility, speciﬁcally past birth rates, were negatively and signiﬁcantly
associated with economic growth, whereas the effect of mortality was insigniﬁcant.
These contributions were the direct precursors to the demographic dividend liter-
ature that followed in the wake of the Asian Development Bank’s Emerging Asia
conference (ADB 1997): This line of research justiﬁed the decomposition on the
grounds that changes in fertility and mortality could imply very different changes
in the age distribution.

Population growth attributable to a fall in infant mortality and a rise in fertility
both had an immediate negative effect on economic growth since this meant more
mouths to feed. A fall in mortality everywhere across the age distribution could
raise the adult labor force, giving an offsetting positive impact.

然而, we now understand that the negative demographic effect has a de-
layed positive impact on economic growth since the economically active population
booms 2 decades later, long after the aggregate population growth effect may have
disappeared. This positive effect on economic growth abates as the fertility rate
declines, but with a long lag.

数字 1 plots the stylized version of this demographic transition, 显示
the transition from high fertility and high mortality when the country is poor to low
fertility and low mortality when the country is rich. The two critical aspects of the
transition are ﬁrst, that the initial mortality decline is driven primarily by a fall in
infant mortality, 第二个, that fertility rates are very slow to decline in response.
The transition takes decades to complete. The population growth rate is implicit
in the ﬁrst panel of Figure 1 as the difference between fertility and mortality. 这
second panel makes the population dynamics explicit: the demographic transition
is accompanied by a cycle in population growth and an even more dramatic cycle

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DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDENDS REVISITED 3

数字 1. The Stylized Demographic Transition

Demographic Transition

Birth rate
Death rate

Population
growth rate

Birth rate
Death rate

时间

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Population Growth and the Age Structure

Share
在职的

Birth rate
minus
死亡
速度

生长

来源: Bloom and Williamson (1998), 数字 1.

Percent in
劳动力

时间

in the age structure. 数字 1 treats the demographic system as if it was closed, 和
thus it ignores external migration. This assumption will be relaxed later in the paper.
The East Asian demographic evidence certainly supports Figure 1 (Bloom
and Williamson 1997 和 1998; Feeney and Mason 2001; Oshima and Mason 2001;
李 2003; Mason 2007a and 2007b; Bloom and Canning 2008; 石匠, 李, 和李
2010), but the question back in 1997 was just how big the demographic transition
impact on economic growth was. 的确, how much of the East Asian miracle could
it explain?

David Bloom and I (1997 和 1998) contributed to this stage of the population
debate in four ways.1 First, like Allen Kelley and Robert Schmidt (1995), we used
the empirical convergence model (Barro 1991 和 1997) to isolate the effects of

1These results were later conﬁrmed in more detail by Bloom, Canning, and Malaney (2000).

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4 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT REVIEW

demography. 第二, we explored the possibility of reverse causality by using a two-
stage speciﬁcation where instruments for population growth were used to account for
possible endogeneity. 第三, we introduced demography into the growth equations
in a theoretically more appealing way than simply by the ad hoc addition of birth
and death rates, speciﬁcally by adding the growth rates of the total population and
the economically active population. 通过这样做, population growth was allowed to
affect economic growth by its overall rate and by its age structure. The distinction
mattered. 第四, we used these econometric results to assess the extent to which
population dynamics could help account for a signiﬁcant portion of East Asia’s
economic miracle.

What did we ﬁnd? 之间 1965 和 1990, the working age population in
East Asia grew 2.4% per annum, dramatically faster than the 1.6% rate for the
entire population, yielding a 0.8 percentage point differential. The working age
population also grew faster than the entire population in Southeast Asia, 但是
difference was almost half that of East Asia, while in South Asia it was a quarter
of the East Asian ﬁgure. Combining the coefﬁcients from the estimated growth
equations and the growth rates of the working age and total population, 桌子 1
reports that population dynamics explained between 1.4 和 1.9 百分点
of per capita GDP growth in East Asia (6.11% per annum)—the biggest regional
effect worldwide—or as much as a third of the growth miracle (1.9/6.11 = 0.31).2 如果
instead the miracle were deﬁned as the difference between current per capita GDP
生长 (a transitional rate where population dynamics matter) and some steady
state of say 2% (when population is also in steady state and has no impact), 然后
population dynamics explained almost half of the miracle (1.9/[6.11–2] = 0.46).

In Southeast Asia, where the fertility decline took place a little later and
the infant mortality decline was a little less dramatic, population dynamics still
占 0.9 到 1.8 percentage points of economic growth, or again, as much as
half of their less impressive miracle (1.8/3.8 = 0.47). The East Asian economies that
beneﬁted most from these demographic events were Hong Kong, 中国; the Republic
of Korea; Malaysia; 新加坡; Taipei,中国; and Thailand. It is no coincidence that
these Asian tigers attracted most of Paul Krugman’s attention when he asserted that
the East Asian miracle was driven mainly by high rates of accumulation and labor
force growth (Krugman 1994).3

Based on the coefﬁcients of the estimated convergence model and the UN
2025 demographic projections, Bloom and I (1998) concluded that the future would
look quite different (桌子 2). 在东亚, per capita gross domestic product (GDP)
growth attributable to demographic inﬂuences was projected to be negative between
1990 和 2025, declining from a positive gain of 1.4 到 1.9 percentage points between

2Eight years later, Kelley and Schmidt (2005) also used the convergence model to estimate a ﬁgure of 28%

for all Asia in 1960–1995, quite close to our 31% for East Asia in 1965–1990.

3Krugman relied on the results of Alwyn Young (1994a and 1994b) and Jong-Il Kim and Lawrence Lau
(1994), but these results were subsequently challenged with much higher total factor productivity growth estimates.

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DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDENDS REVISITED 5

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DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDENDS REVISITED 7

数字 2. Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition, 东亚

Growth rate of real GDP per capita

经济的
“miracle”

Other transitional
军队

Demographic “gift”

经济的
“miracle”

Youth
demographic
“burden”

Sutainable
生长

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C. 1945

C. 1960

来源: Bloom and Williamson (1998), 数字 6.

C. 2010

C. 2025
时间

1965 和 1990 to a loss of 0.1 到 0.4 percentage points up to 2025, a projected
retardation of 1.5 到 2.3 percentage points due solely to demographic forces. 南
Asia was projected to see a 0.8 到 1.4 percentage point growth rate gain as it left
the “burden” stage of the demographic transition entirely and entered the “gift” or
“dividend” stage. Southeast Asia was predicted to register a smaller demographic
dividend (0.6–1.1 percentage points): The biggest gainer was projected to be the
Philippines while the biggest losers were projected to be Malaysia and Thailand.

The macro evidence seemed to support the hypothesis that demographic
events helped account for the East Asian economic miracle. 数字 2 offers a stylized
version of the demographic dividend hypothesis where the sustainable growth rate is
taken to be about 2% per annum. The actual growth rate in GDP per capita ﬁrst falls,
due to a large and rising child share; then rises, as that large child cohort reaches
young adulthood; then reaches a peak, reinforced by a lagged decline in fertility;
after which aging and retirement lower the working age share and slow growth rates.
The reader should note that the contribution of the demographic transition
(labeled the “demographic gift” in Figure 2) to East Asian economic growth past,
展示, and future depends on how the miracle is deﬁned. If it is deﬁned as a share
of per capita GDP growth between 1960 和 2010 图中 2, then it accounts for
about a third of the miracle. If it is deﬁned as the surplus over the sustainable rate,
then it accounts for almost half. But if it is deﬁned as the increase in growth rates
from 1945–1960 to 1960–2010, then it accounts for almost three-quarters. 这些

8 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT REVIEW

are very big numbers. Could their size be attributable to the assumptions of the
convergence model?

二. Decomposing the Convergence Model: Participation Rate

and Productivity Effects

The demographic dividend literature took a big empirical step forward with
a paper by Allen Kelley and Robert Schmidt (2005) which decomposed the growth
effects uncovered by the na¨ıve demographic dividend model into its transitory labor
participation rate effects and its longer term productivity effects. The ﬁrst part is
pure demography—given labor productivity growth, any rise in activity or labor
participation rate (LPR) will raise per capita income growth. 此外, 这
impact is transitory, although it may last decades. What about the second part?

Kelley and Schmidt (2005) listed some possible channels of impact of de-
mography on productivity growth—scale economies, density, life-cycle savings and
investment responses, and human capital accumulation, two of which will be dis-
cussed at length below. But they only used the list to motivate a reduced-form
estimation of the two effects. Their main ﬁnding was that demography had no long
run impact on productivity growth. It turns out that they spoke too soon.

三、. How Big the Dividend? Computable OLG and Convergence Models

Analysts were suspicious of the size of the demographic dividend estimated
with the reduced-form convergence model (taking accumulation as exogenous)
since the underlying savings, capital accumulation, and schooling variables are all
endogenous (Feyrer 2007, S´anchez-Romero 2012). 因此, a more recent literature
has emerged using computable overlapping generations (OLG) models which focus
explicitly on the savings and accumulation response, and the demographic impact
is typically estimated to be much smaller. 例如, that literature ﬁnds only
a small demographic impact on Japan’s economic growth in the late 20th century
(布劳恩, Ikeda, and Joines 2009). While the OLG estimated impacts are bigger
for Taipei,中国 (李, 石匠, and Miller 2000, 2001, 和 2003) and the People’s
Republic of China (PRC) (Curtis, Lugauer, and Mark 2011) than for Japan, all of
the more recent OLG models seemed to yield smaller demographic dividends than
did the original convergence models. But now it appears that they do so mainly by
assumption.

A recent and impressive paper by Miguel S´anchez-Romero (2012) 节目
that there is actually little difference between the computable OLG and the early
convergence model results when applied to Taipei,China’s late 20th century history.
S´anchez-Romero ﬁnds that demography accounts for 22% of Taipei,China’s per

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DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDENDS REVISITED 9

capita output growth in 1965–2005. Why the difference between S´anchez-Romero
and Lee et al.? Both are using computable OLG models, but one adds an important
reality missing from the other. 通常, the computable OLG models get their
result by performing counterfactual experiments ﬁxing birth and death rates at
those prevailing at the start of the period examined. 相比之下, and more correctly,
S´anchez-Romero ﬁxes birth and death rates at the levels prevailing a generation
前. The former underestimates the demographic impact; the latter reports that
for Taipei,China in 1965–1990, 25% of per capita income growth can be explained
by demography, much closer to the 28% estimate of Kelley and Schmidt (2005) 为了
Asia and the 31% estimate of Bloom and Williamson (1998) for East Asia.

因此, it appears that the difference in the estimated growth impact of the
demographic transition on Taipei,China’s performance is much the same whether
the convergence model or the OLG model is employed. What remains is to determine
whether the result for Taipei,China generalizes to East and Southeast Asia.

IV. Channels of Dividend Impact: Savings and Physical Capital Accumulation

Savings, Investment, and Accumulation

Since the key to the Kelley–Schmidt productivity impact of the demographic
dividend must lie largely with accumulation responses, the life-cycle savings model
and related literature has pursued this connection for Asia ever since Ansley Coale
and Edgar Hoover (1958) wrote about dependency burdens a half century ago.
An anecdotal fact illustrates the point. In the early 1970s, Korean authorities were
concerned by their country’s heavy dependence on Japanese investment ﬁnancing
and commissioned World Bank papers to explore why the Republic of Korea saved
“so little” (威廉森 1979). 到 20 世纪 80 年代末, the Republic of Korea had doubled
its savings rate, and its current account balance share of GDP had swung from –8%
(net capital inﬂow) 到 +3.2% (net capital outﬂow). Over the same period, the Korean
dependency rate fell by more than 12 百分点, a huge decline.

Was the correlation spurious, or was demography driving some of the accu-
mulation boom and its ﬁnancing? The subsequent literature was thus motivated by
the following questions: How much of the impressive rise in East Asian savings rates
across the late 20th century could be explained by the equally impressive decline in
dependency burdens? How much of the fall in external capital dependency in East
Asia since the 1970s could be explained by the same demographic forces?

Over the past 2 几十年, the literature has assigned a large role to the demo-
graphic transition in explaining accumulation-driven productivity gains underlying
the East Asian miracle. Saving and investment rates can both be driven by demog-
拉菲, each tracing out an inverted-U. The explanation for the saving rate trend
would be the famous life-cycle model with high saving rates in the middle of the

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10 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT REVIEW

demographic transition where mature adults dominate.4 The explanation for the in-
vestment rate trend would be the impact of big working adult shares generating large
investment shares, and thus accumulation rates, in the middle of the demographic
过渡. The following predictions logically follow:

(我) If the saving rate inverted-U is more dramatic than that of investment, then net
capital import shares, or foreign capital dependency, would be big early and
small in the middle of the transition.

(二) 如果, 相比之下, the investment inverted-U is more dramatic than that for savings,
then net capital import shares would be small early and big in the middle of the
过渡.

Theory cannot discriminate between the two predictions, but empirical work
能. The earliest work to pursue the assessment for East Asia (Higgins and
威廉森 1997, 希金斯 1998, Williamson and Higgins 2001) found the fol-
lowing: rising fertility and falling infant mortality had a profound impact on East
Asian saving rates, investment rates, and foreign capital dependency over the half
century following 1950. Much of the impressive rise in East Asian saving rates
after the late 1960s could be explained by the equally impressive decline in youth
dependency burdens.

此外, the evidence supported the ﬁrst prediction above—countries
that kicked the foreign capital dependency habit ﬁrst and fastest were the coun-
tries where the youth dependency burden fell ﬁrst and most dramatically. Much of
the contrasting foreign capital dependency between South and East Asia could be
explained by the size of the youth dependency burden and its persistence. 所有的
this implied that demography could explain a large share of the East Asian miracle
through accumulation and Kelley–Schmidt productivity effects.

These early studies made many assumptions along the way: that more abun-
dant world savings supplies did not alter capital’s incentive to seek new Asian
机会, although it certainly did; that world capital markets stayed equally
open throughout the half century, although they certainly did not; that the life-cycle
model was an appropriate explanation for savings behavior; and that the demo-
graphic transition was exogenous to accumulation performance. Subsequent work
has explored the importance of these assumptions at length, but never in a really
persuasive way.

Using an OLG model with ﬁxed household size and exogenous interest rates,
we are told that demography explains almost none of Japan’s national savings rate

4Life cycle trends in income and saving have been well documented in the literature, much of it for Asia
(石匠, 李, 和李 2008, p. 12; Mason and Kinugasa 2008, p. 390). Recent work on the PRC since the 1990s
suggests the same (Curtis, Lugauer, and Mark 2011; Wei and Zhang 2011; Banerjee, 猛, and Quian 2010).

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DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDENDS REVISITED 11

(Hayashi and Prescott 2002; 陈, Imrohoro˘glu, Imrohoro˘glu 2006 和 2007), 但
using an OLG model with endogenous interest rates and variable household size,
we are told that demography has a positive effect (布劳恩, Ikeda, and Joines 2009).
Using an OLG model with ﬁxed interest rates and youth dependency, we are told
that demography matters for Taipei,China’s saving rate experience since 1960 (李,
石匠, and Miller 2000, 2001, 和 2003). 最近, and again using the OLG
model with ﬁxed interest rates, we are told that most of the PRC’s high saving rates
are driven by demography (Curtis, Lugauer, and Mark 2011). These assumptions
事情.

乙. What About World Capital Markets?

Of all these assumptions invoked in the literature surveyed in the previous
部分, the ﬁnancial capital open economy assumption, or what the analysts call
the “interest rate assumption,” is probably the most important, and the most poorly
明白了. If the interest rate is taken as exogenous, then we are assuming an
economy open to world capital markets, where ﬁnancial capital is allowed to ﬂow
freely across borders, the world interest rate prevails locally, and domestic saving
offers no constraint on domestic investment. We are also asked to assume that the
world borrowing rate facing East and Southeast Asia was constant over the late 20th
century although it certainly was not. 反而, their emerging market borrowing
rates converged on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
(经合组织) 费率 (Obstfeld and Taylor 2004; Mauro, Sussman, and Yafeh 2006).

如果, 反而, the interest rate is taken to be endogenous, then we are asked
to assume an economy completely closed off from world capital markets, 在哪里
capital does not ﬂow across borders at all, domestic savings constrains domestic
投资, and domestic saving and investment jointly determine the local interest
速度. Some of these papers make the open economy assumption, some make the
closed economy assumption, but none—as far as I know—explore the wide reality
in between and how it changed over time.

的确, it is rare that we are told how much the assumption matters.
Taipei,China is an exception. 之间 1965 和 1990, S´anchez-Romero (2012)
reports that when the economy is assumed to have been open to capital ﬂows, 的-
mography accounts for 25% of per capita output growth, and when it is assumed to
have been closed, demography accounts for “only” 17.2%.5

In open economies, domestic savings is not a constraint on accumulation, 和
thus booming working adult shares have a bigger impact on investment, accumula-
的, 和成长. Where is the literature that shows us that Asian economies open
to world capital markets had bigger demographic effects than those closed? 也许

5然而, S´anchez-Romero does not explore an open economy assumption where Third World borrowing

rates fall, a characterization that comes closer to world capital market integration from the 1970s onwards.

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12 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT REVIEW

more to the point, Asian capital markets were mostly closed before the 1970s, 尽管
they have been mostly open since. 因此, where is the literature that shows us that
Asian economies had bigger demographic effects before the 1970s than afterwards?
The empirical problem underlying the last research question is, 当然, that stages
of world capital market integration and stages of demographic transitions have been
correlated in Asia over the past half century.

A Second Demographic Dividend?

The early convergence and OLG models assumed that older and retired work-
ers dissaved, and that the demographic dividend evaporated as the demographic
transition moved into its last stages. Some now think that the dividend persists.
为什么? The Asian data show that individuals consume much more than they produce
well into old age (石匠, 李, 和李 2008; Mason and Kinugasa 2008, p. 390).
当然, this could be explained by massive intergenerational transfers within
家庭, but it might also be explained by higher rates of saving for old age by
mature working adults.

There are at least three plausible reasons why current mature working adults
might have higher saving rates than the previous generation thus raising aggregate
saving rates late in the demographic transition. 第一的, greater expected longevity
would encourage that result. While the na¨ıve demographic transition models stress
the initial decline in child mortality, improvements in health environments also raise
life expectancy at age 40 或者 50, and those effects become increasingly important
as the transition evolves. 第二, mortality becomes less uncertain as disease is
suppressed in poor countries. Lower uncertainty about life expectancy would also
encourage more saving by mature working adults. 第三, as family size declines,
the spatial mobility of children rises, and retirement years increase, parents may be
much less certain about the support they can expect from their children in their old
年龄, offering another incentive for mature working adults to save even more. If these
forces do indeed raise the saving rates of mature working adults, then they could
create a “second demographic dividend.”

All of this is certainly plausible, and it has been conﬁrmed for Asia where
greater longevity has raised saving rates across all adult groups (Bloom and Canning
2003). But the PRC, 南亚, and Southeast Asia are not far enough advanced
with their demographic transition to offer the required evidence for assessing the
magnitudes of a second demographic transition.6 All the Asian evidence comes from

6之间 2000 和 2005, the population growth rate was 1.39% in ASEAN and 1.62% in India, while it was
仅有的 0.14% in Japan, 0.46% in the Republic of Korea, 和 0.54% in Taipei,中国. 在 2000, the youth dependency
rates were: 41.8% in ASEAN and 45.1% in India versus 20.5% in Japan; 28.9% in the Republic of Korea; 23.7% 在
香港, 中国; 和 29.7% in Taipei,中国. 在 2000, the population shares 65 and older were: 4.9% in ASEAN
和 4.6% in India versus 17.2% in Japan; 7.4% in the Republic of Korea; 11% in Hong Kong, 中国; 和 8.1% 在
Taipei,中国 (石匠, 李, 和李 2010, Tables 1.1, 1.2, 和 1.4).

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DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDENDS REVISITED 13

the Republic of Korea; 日本; and Taipei,中国. Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason ﬁnd
very large second dividends for Taipei,中国 (Mason and Lee 2007; 石匠, 李,
和李 2010) which they argue is consistent with the micro studies of Taipei,中国
(Deaton and Paxson 2000). For a sample of 25 European countries plus Australia,
日本, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, 新西兰, Thailand, 和联合国
状态 (我们), the estimates of second dividends are large. 的确, the two (saving
速度) dividends are estimated to have been about equal (Mason and Kinugasa 2008,
p. 398): “declining child dependency led to a rise in saving rates by 6.9 percentage
点 (尽管) improvements in adult survival led to a rise in saving rates by 6.7
percentage points.”7

Whether these second dividend magnitudes will hold up for the PRC, 南

亚洲, and Southeast Asia cannot yet be asserted, but that future looks likely.

V. Channels of Dividend Impact: Human Capital Accumulation

and Vintage Effects

We all agree that human capital accumulation is an important driver of
生长, so how might it be connected to the demographic transition? 那里有两个
可能性.

第一的, and following Gary Becker (1960 和 1981) 和H. Gregg Lewis
(Becker and Lewis 1973), there may be a quality–quantity trade-off working at
the family level—i.e., more children and lower investment per child versus fewer
children and higher investment per child. This would clearly be a force endogenous to
the demographic transition: A low-quality child cohort (produced under conditions
of high fertility and big families) implies weak vintage effects when that cohort enters
the labor force a decade or two later, while a high-quality child cohort (produced
under conditions of low fertility and small families) implies a big vintage effect
when the cohort enters the labor force a decade or two later. If those cohorts are
themselves big, the vintage effect is even bigger.

第二, there is the possibility of an independent co-movement between
public spending on these investments and the size of the youth cohorts. If a public-
schooling–health revolution coincides with the demographic transition, and if that
revolution impacts on the quality of the new children, we have what might be
called a quasi-endogenous effect. Without the public-schooling–health revolution,
the vintage effects of the demographic transition would be weak and limited to
the demand-side Becker effects, but with it, they would be strong and pushed by
the supply side. 任何状况之下, both of these forces imply vintage effects—average
human capital per worker rises as the well-schooled young workers replace the
poorly-schooled older workers.

7For an elegant and impressive extension of their views, see Lee and Mason (2011).

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14 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT REVIEW

Endogenous Schooling from the Demand Side: Quality versus Quantity

Some of the best work documenting the endogenous quality–quantity human
capital effects coming from fertility declines in the second stage of the demographic
过渡, at least for Asia, have been produced by Andrew Mason, Ronald Lee, 和
their collaborators. The cross-section correlation between total public and private
human capital investment per child and the total fertility rate is striking (石匠,
李, 和李 2010, 数字 1.8). In their research, 日本, the Republic of Korea, 和
Taipei,China are later in the demographic transition with high investment per child
and low fertility rates. 印度, 印度尼西亚, and the Philippines, 同时, are earlier
in the demographic transition with low investment per child and higher fertility
费率. Thailand is in the middle.

Lee and Mason (2009) have shown how these quality–quantity correlations
could have a powerful impact on human capital accumulation and growth. 虽然
independent East Asian evidence certainly seems to support the Becker demand-side
联系 (蒙哥马利, Arends-Kuenning, and Mete 2000; Jun 2013), Lee and
Mason never identify the source of the correlation they observe across Asia. Was it
quality–quantity family effects that would be so clearly associated with demographic
transitions, or was it something else?

此外, their measures of investment per child do not control for schooling
quality—when parents demand more schooling for their children, it may generate
crowding and rising teacher (and other schooling) costs and thus more spending,
but maybe not more quality-adjusted schooling. This is exactly what T. Paul Schultz
(1987) found for a large sample of countries for the period 1960–1981, 以及什么
I found for a smaller sample (but which included Hong Kong, 中国; 日本; 这
Republic of Korea; Malaysia; the Philippines; and Thailand). Controlling for other
relevant variables, we found the relative price of teachers had a strong negative
impact on schooling (威廉森 1993, p. 154).

Why should we care? Because positive public supply-side forces should lower
the relative schooling price while demand side forces should raise it. The behavior
of the relative cost of schooling (和健康) might help untangle the demand and
supply side forces. Where is the literature that explores this important issue?

简而言之, while other studies have conﬁrmed the quality–quantity trade-off in
micro data, Lee and Mason (2009) are dealing with macro data (and magnitudes
across countries and over time) and we are not yet sure how much of the correlation
they observe is driven by private family schooling demands, and how much by public
schooling supplies. The differences will inﬂuence interpretation and thus policy.

乙.

Supply Side: Demographic Transitions and Public Schooling Revolutions

Taipei,China was a schooling leader in Asia, and its experience illustrates the
supply-side point. In it was established “6 years of compulsory education, 和这个

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DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDENDS REVISITED 15

period was extended to 9 years in 1968. 因此, the proportion of illiterate . . .
changed from 40% 在 1940 to almost [零] in 1970” (S´anchez-Romero 2012,
脚注 2; citing Huang 2001).

明显地, when Taipei,China passed from the youth dependency phase of the
demographic transition to the young adult worker and the mature adult worker phases
during 1950–2000 (石匠, 李, 和李 2010, Tables 1.2 和 1.3), the co-movement
of the early public schooling revolution later raised average worker schooling due to
these powerful vintage effects. The Asian public schooling revolution examples can
be easily multiplied (威廉森 1993, Duﬂo 2011).8 的确, the evidence shows
that since 1950 East Asia has made a bigger commitment to schooling—and with a
steeper rise in that commitment—than anywhere else in the Third World. Why is that
所以, and why is it correlated with a more dramatic demographic transition? Is it public
supply-side political economy at work, or is it private demand-side quality–quantity
trade-offs? The recent neo-institutional contributions of Daron Acemoglu and James
罗宾逊 (例如, 2006) and Stanley Engerman and Kenneth Sokoloff (例如, 2012)
would suggest low inequality and broad political participation might explain it. 但
we need far more research on this question.

六、. Emigration: Muting the Dividend’s Impact by Brain Drain

Emigration Life Cycles

Countries typically pass through a migration transition, or what might be
called an emigration life cycle, driven by income differences between the low-wage
sending country and high-wage host countries, modernization, and economic growth
at home, and of course, the sending country’s experience with its demographic
过渡. These emigration life cycles have been used by economic historians to
describe European emigration from the 1840s to World War I, where each country’s
emigration rate rose steeply from very low levels, after which the rise began to slow
down as the emigration rates reached a peak and subsequently fell again to low levels.
These historical emigration life cycles can be seen in aggregate country emigration
费率, regional emigration rates within countries, and rural–urban emigration rates
within countries (Hatton and Williamson 2005b, Chapter 4).

Since these emigration life cycles are so pervasive in the historical data,
it is hardly surprising that we also have seen them in the Third World since the
1950s (Hatton and Williamson 2005a and 2011, 威廉森 [Forthcoming]). 尽管
similar to 19th century European emigration patterns, the more recent Third World

8The best paper covering the 19th and early 20th century (primary) schooling revolution in the now-advanced
countries is by Richard Easterlin (1981). The reference to the post-World War II Asian schooling revolution is mainly
secondary education.

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16 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT REVIEW

country emigration life cycles cover shorter time periods. One oft-cited example
is the Republic of Korea where emigration rose steeply to a peak in 1982 和
subsequently declined just as quickly. Similar patterns have been observed for other
Asian countries and it is tempting to associate these more compressed emigration
life cycles with economic miracles and accelerated demographic transitions.

While emigration life cycles have been examined for individual countries,
they have also been explored at more aggregative continental levels, 虽然
expectation is that the aggregate life cycles should be less dramatic. 毕竟, 一些
countries start and complete their emigration life cycles early, while others start and
ﬁnish later, tending to partially smooth out the aggregate regional experience. 仍然,
Asia reached peak emigration rates in 1980–1984, even though some economies
reached peaks early, like the Republic of Korea and Taipei,中国, while others much
之后, like Indonesia and the Philippines (Hatton and Williamson 2011, 桌子 1).9

This brief survey raises three questions. 第一的, are emigration life cycles
country-speciﬁc special cases or do they reﬂect some common laws of motion?
第二, if they do reﬂect some common laws of motion, what are the shared eco-
nomic and demographic fundamentals driving them? 尤其, while we certainly
see the correlation—emigration life cycles following a decade or two after the ﬁrst
stage of the demographic transition—exactly what role does the demographic tran-
sition play? 第三, are the demographic forces powerful enough to account for at
least some of the observed brain drain, 如果是这样, are the drains big enough to mute
some of the demographic dividends?

Modern economic analysis of international migration uses the framework
ﬁrst set out by Larry Sjaastad (1962) and reﬁned by George Borjas (1987 和 1994),
Barry Chiswick (2000), 和别的. 因此, the emigration decision is characterized as
depending on the economic gain from migration net of its costs, the latter including
waiting time (inﬂuenced by short-run labor market conditions in host countries) 和
queues related to host country admission criteria (and illegal migration costs). 自从
young adults have the most to gain from long distance moves, they record by far the
highest emigration rates. 因此, when young adult cohorts are big during the second
stage of the demographic transition, aggregate emigration rates should be big as
出色地, other things being equal.

Since capital markets facing most poor households are imperfect or even
缺席的, the demand to emigrate is constrained by poverty. But those constraints are
released over time as growth miracles at home create more good jobs and thus the
incomes necessary to ﬁnance more emigrants, and as remittances and in-kind help
from previous (and increasing) emigrants living abroad rises.10

9Asia is deﬁned here very broadly to include East Asia, Southeast Asia, 南亚, 中东地区, 和

North Africa.

10Uninformed observers often think that successful development at home will keep young adults from
emigrating. 相反, the big income gaps between sending and host countries are still big, and now families
have more resources to ﬁnance the next emigrant.

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DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDENDS REVISITED 17

As growth miracles unfold, they generate two competing forces on the up-
swing of the emigration life cycle: poverty rates fall making it easier for families
to ﬁnance the moves of their children and helping release the poverty constraint on
emigration; but miracle growth implies catching up with the leaders, thus reducing
the gains from the move. The ﬁrst dominates early in the emigration cycle, 尽管
the second dominates later in the cycle.

Schooling matters as well. As the educational attainment of young cohorts
rise, their ability to exploit labor market opportunities abroad rises as well. Emigra-
tion may also be constrained by host country immigration policy and perturbed by
civil strife at home, but these events are more random.

So goes the theory, but the econometric facts support the theory.

乙.

Emigration Life Cycle Fundamentals

Recent research has identiﬁed the main drivers of Third World emigration
rates after the 1960s, the start of the great boom in world migration (Martin and
泰勒 1996). The best evidence is for sending-country emigration to the US (Hatton
and Williamson 2011). While changing immigration policy, civil strife at home,
and other exogenous events have mattered, it is the underlying demographic and
economic fundamentals that explain the common emigration life-cycle experience
across sending countries.

第一的, the US migrant stock effect made the most important contribution to
the boom up to the 1990s, reﬂecting both the importance of family reuniﬁcation
in US immigration policy and the previous impact of economic and demographic
fundamentals on migration ﬂows which then got embedded in the current migrant
库存, thus raising current ﬂows. 的确, were it not for the migrant stock effect,
Asian emigration rates would have fallen steeply after 1990–1994 rather than only
slightly dropping. 第二, the birth cohort effect played an important role in the
downturn after 1990–1994 in Asia.11 Third, education catch-up also played an
important role everywhere in the Third World, augmenting emigration rates, 但它
was especially powerful in Asia, where the schooling revolution was most dramatic.
第四, while there was certainly per capita income growth catch-up in Asia, 这
growth miracles were not fast enough to reduce signiﬁcantly the income gap with the
我们, thus they contributed little to the emigration boom. 最后, while statistically
signiﬁcant, the diminished poverty trap did not contribute as much to either the
emigration boom in 1990–1994, or the decline thereafter.

Brain Drain and Wasted Demographic Dividends?

Perhaps it is obvious that emigration of well-schooled young adults diminishes
the demographic dividend. True, some have shown that emigration of well-schooled

11The same was true of Latin America but not Africa where the demographic transition is lagging behind.

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18 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT REVIEW

young adults raises the expected rate of return to schooling for the next younger
cohort left behind.12 Since this raises schooling rates, it offers a partial offset to
the drain (Cervantes and Guellec 2002, 威廉森 2007, Docquier and Rapoport
2012). Others have argued that remittances offset the brain drain losses (Fajnzylber
and Lopez 2007, 哪个 2008 和 2011, Guiliano and Ruiz-Arranz 2009), 但是
assessment ignores potential damage created by Dutch disease on manufacturing
jobs or household’s use of those remittances to ﬁnance yet another child’s emigration.
Any assessment of the brain drain and demographic transition connection is made
even more complicated by the powerful role of emigrant migration stocks abroad
pulling even more young well-schooled adults abroad long after demography had
its ﬁrst-order effect on emigration. As far as I know, the connection has not yet been
assessed empirically.

VII. Beneath the Macro: Rural–Urban Migration and Income Gaps

Oddly enough, it is hard to ﬁnd a single paper in the literature that breaks the
demographic transition down into rural and urban component parts. We know that
the richer, better educated, more progressive, and female-job friendly cities lead the
poorer, less educated, more conservative, and less female-job friendly rural areas in
the demographic transition. Postwar child mortality in Asia fell ﬁrst in the cities, 和
有滞后, fertility rates fell there ﬁrst as well. Where the rural lag (behind urban)
has been big, we should see three things (ceteris paribus): (我) big migrations to the
cities pushed by a young adult glut in the countryside; (二) rising rural inequality
driven by the same glut; 和 (三、) rising wage gaps also driven by the same glut. 如果
analyst just compares the size of youth cohort age shares in urban and rural areas,
she will downplay these forces since rural–urban migration tends, at least partly, 到
equilibrate. 所以, one has to look at the rural–urban fertility and child mortality
differentials a couple of decades earlier to properly assess impact.

I have said that these rural–urban differences in timing and magnitudes should
have countrywide inequality implications (within regions, between regions, 和
countrywide). These will be explored in the next section, but here I will simply
repeat the prediction that a glut of young adults who stay in rural areas will lower
wages and incomes and raise rural–urban wage and income gaps.

Anyone interested in rural–urban migrations in Asia and their distributional
implications should pay attention to rural–urban differences with their demographic
transition experiences—especially for the PRC, 印度尼西亚, the Philippines, 和
Thailand. As far as I know, nobody has yet done so.

12那是, expected rates of return to schooling are raised by the possibility of emigration to high-wage

国家 (conﬁrmed by the experience of older emigrating siblings).

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DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDENDS REVISITED 19

VIII. The Demographic Transition and Inequality Connection

The cohort size hypothesis is simple enough: fat age cohorts tend to get lower
rewards due to a supply glut and thin age cohorts get higher rewards due to scarcity.
When the fat cohorts lie in the middle of the age–earnings curve where life-cycle
income is highest, this labor market glut lowers income in the middle, thus tending to
ﬂatten the age–earnings curve, and earnings inequality is moderated. When instead
the fat cohorts are either young or old, these kinds of labor market gluts lower
incomes at the two tails of the age–earnings curve, thus tending to augment earnings
不等式.

This demographic hypothesis has a long tradition in the US starting with the
entry of the baby boomers into the labor market when their big numbers created
poorer job prospects (Easterlin 1980), and the impact was surveyed not too long
前 (Lam 1997, PP. 1023–24 and pp. 1044–52; Macunovich 1998). All such studies
have shown that relative cohort size has had an adverse supply-side effect on the
relative wages of the fat cohort in the US since the 1950s.

What about the world more generally, and Asia in particular? If the cohort
size hypothesis helps explain US (and European) postwar experience with earnings
不等式, it might do even better elsewhere. 毕竟, there is far greater variance
in the age distribution of populations between countries than there has been over
time in the US. 更重要的是, the post-World War II (WWII) demographic
transition in Asia and the rest of the Third World has generated much more dramatic
changes in relative cohort size than did the baby boom in the US and the OECD.
此外, the postwar OECD countries were already urbanized, so the postulated
rural–urban inequality effects discussed in the previous section would have been far
weaker there than should have been true of Asia and the rest of the Third World. 作为
far as I know, nobody has yet explored this last hypothesis in the literature.

One study (威廉森 2001, Higgins and Williamson 2002) used a world
panel database of 92 countries to explain the Deininger–Squire (1996) 收入
inequality Gini coefﬁcients from the 1960s to the 1990s. The explanatory variables
是: older labor force cohort size deﬁned as the proportion of the adult population
(taken to be persons 15–69) who are ages 40–59; a measure of openness; 和
GDP per capita entered nonlinearly to capture Kuznets Curve effects. The results
were statistically signiﬁcant and robust. 更重要的是, the analysis assigned the
biggest inﬂuence to demographic-transition-induced cohort size effects.

的确, compared with the East and Southeast Asian economies, 不等式
in Africa and Latin America in the 1990s was much higher, bigger by 7.2 points in
Africa and by 10.8 points in Latin America.13 If Africa had the same demographic
mix as East and Southeast Asia, inequality would have been lower by 3.6 点:

13Asian economies here include the PRC; 香港, 中国; 印度尼西亚; 日本; the Republic of Korea;

Malaysia; the Philippines; Taipei,中国; and Thailand.

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20 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT REVIEW

cohort size accounting for about half of the difference between the two regions. 如果
Latin America had the same demographic mix as East and Southeast Asia, 不等式
would have been lower by 3.1 点: cohort size accounting for almost a third of
the difference between the two regions. The study also showed that cohort size
effects (rising mature labor force shares) should serve to lower inequality by more
比 8 percentage points between the early 1990s and 2025, suggesting that these
demographic changes could be a powerful force promoting reduced inequality—the
Gini coefﬁcient for East and Southeast Asia was projected to fall from a relatively
低的 39.2 to a still lower 31.5 经过 2025, after which it should stabilize.

Harry Oshima and Andrew Mason also explored some of these issues for
亚洲, but their most novel contribution, at least in my opinion, was their stress on
inequality of years of life (Oshima and Mason 2001, PP. 404–5). Some time ago,
Simon Kuznets (1976) stressed that it was inequality of lifetime earnings that we
should be measuring. Since child and adult mortality are powerfully inﬂuenced by
poverty in very poor countries, low incomes and low life expectancy are correlated.
因此, lifetime incomes must have been much more unequal than annual incomes in
most of Asia during the 1950s and 1960s. But if a fall in child mortality early in
the demographic transition favors the poor (perhaps because it is driven mainly by
public intervention), then it should offer another source of more egalitarian lifetime
incomes. If a fall in adult mortality later in the demographic transition also favors
the poor, it should be a source of more egalitarian lifetime incomes. Oshima and
石匠 (2001) report a very steep decline in the inequality of years lived by East
Asians during the post-WWII era (something we also see across countries in the
20th century), contributing to much more egalitarian lifetime incomes. These trends
are likely to continue in the near future, and they need more of our attention.

IX. 议程

It seems to me that there are many unanswered questions involving the impact
of the demographic transition on country economic performance. Estimates of the
ﬁrst and second demographic dividends seem only to scratch the surface. We need
to learn much more about the schooling, emigration, and inequality connections as
well as rural–urban dynamics.

The demographic transition matters!

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