Hub-and-Spokes Alliance System Network Connections and the Emergence of the Hub-and-Spokes Alliance System in East Asia Yasuhiro Izumikawa Why did the hub- and-spokes alliance system emerge in East Asia? Why did a multilateral alli- ance system not form there during the Cold War, while the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was created in Europe? During the early 1950s, the United States successively concluded bilateral alliances

Normalization by Other Means Normalization by Other Means Christopher Lawrence Technological Infrastructure and Political Commitment in the North Korean Nuclear Crisis “No package of in- centives in the past quarter century has worked, and there is no reason to think that new diplomatic efforts could induce them, where so many have others failed.”1 This passage sums up the conventional wisdom about North Korea’s nuclear weapons

What Allies Want What Allies Want Iain D. Henry Reconsidering Loyalty, Reliability, and Alliance Interdependence Do states judge their ally’s behavior toward its other allies? If yes, comment? Historically, décision- makers have instinctively adopted deterrence theory’s logic that a state’s char- acter is judged through displays of innate loyalty: if a state is disloyal to one ally, then this will create a reputation for disloyalty,

Paradoxes of Professionalism Paradoxes of Professionalism Risa Brooks Rethinking Civil-Military Relations in the United States In 2009, President Barack Obama ordered a comprehensive review of the United States’ strategy for the war in Afghanistan that revealed some troubling dynamics in the coun- try’s civil-military relations. During the review, top military leaders, including the commander of the International Security Assistance Force led by the North Atlantic

Counterterrorism and Preventive Repression Counterterrorism and Preventive Repression China’s Changing Strategy in Xinjiang Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Myunghee Lee, and Emir Yazici Over the course of 2017–18, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) crackdown on Uyghur and other Muslim minorities in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) generated increasing international scrutiny.1 Reports of heightened repression in Xinjiang prompted a formal expression of concern by the United Nations

Home, Again Home, Again Stephanie Schwartz Refugee Return and Post-Conºict Violence in Burundi In the mid-1990s, hun- dreds of thousands of refugees returned to Bosnia and Herzegovina, the war ªnally over. Amid their homecoming, a song became popular in Sarajevo: “Sarajevan [people] / While Bosnian cities burned/ You were far away/ When it was difªcult/ You left Sarajevo . . . When you come back

How to Enlarge NATO How to Enlarge NATO M.E. Sarotte The Debate inside the Clinton Administration, 1993–95 The expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to include Central and Eastern European (CEE) states represents one of the most controversial strategic choices of the post–Cold War era. According to former State Department ofªcial Ronald Asmus, “1994 was the year the Clinton Administration crossed the Rubicon

Weaponized Interdependence Weaponized Interdependence How Global Economic Networks Shape State Coercion Henry Farrell and Abraham L. Newman In May 2018, Donald Trump announced that the United States was pulling out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreement on Iran’s nuclear program and re- imposing sanctions. Most notably, many of these penalties apply not to U.S. ªrms, but to foreign ªrms that may have no

A Flawed Framework A Flawed Framework Charles L. Glaser Why the Liberal International Order Concept Is Misguided Policymakers and scholars in the United States worried about growing threats to the Western in- ternational order well before President Donald Trump began rhetorically attacking U.S. allies and challenging the international trading system.1 These threats included the 2007–08 ªnancial crisis and the negative economic im- pacts of globalization.

India’s Counterforce Temptations India’s Counterforce Temptations Strategic Dilemmas, Doctrine, and Capabilities Christopher Clary and Vipin Narang Is India shifting to a nuclear counterforce strategy? The conventional wisdom is that India only reluctantly acquired nuclear weapons and has been a restrained nuclear weap- ons power that adheres to a no-ªrst-use (NFU) policy and rejects the possi- bility of nuclear warªghting. Although the empirical record largely bears

Why China Has Not Caught Up Yet Why China Has Not Caught Up Yet Military-Technological Superiority and the Limits of Imitation, Reverse Engineering, and Cyber Espionage Andrea Gilli and Mauro Gilli Can adversaries of the United States easily imitate its most advanced weapon systems and thus erode its military-technological superiority? Do reverse engineering, industrial espi- onage, et, in particular, cyber espionage facilitate and accelerate this

The Power of Nations The Power of Nations Michael Beckley Measuring What Matters What makes some countries more powerful than others? This is the most important question international relations.1 Scholars need a for the study and practice of sound way to measure power, because the balance of power is the motor of world politics, playing a role as central as the role of energy in

The Rarity of Realpolitik The Rarity of Realpolitik What Bismarck’s Rationality Reveals about International Politics Brian Rathbun Realpolitik, the pur- suit of vital state interests in a dangerous world that constrains state behavior, is at the heart of realist theory. All realists assume that states act in such a man- ner or, at the very least, are highly incentivized to do so by the structure

Escalation through Entanglement Escalation through Entanglement How the Vulnerability of Command-and-Control Systems Raises the Risks of an Inadvertent Nuclear War James M. Acton The 2018 U.S. Nuclear Posture Review contains a highly consequential threat that has been largely overlooked in the wave of commentary surrounding the document’s release: the United States warns potential adversaries that it would consider using nu- clear weapons in the event

Why America’s Grand Strategy Has Not Changed Why America’s Grand Strategy Has Not Changed Power, Habit, and the U.S. Foreign Policy Establishment Patrick Porter Why has U.S. grand strategy persisted since the end of the Cold War? If grand strategy is the long- term orchestration of power and commitments to secure oneself in a world where war is possible, the United States’ way of pursuing

Can China Back Down? Can China Back Down? Crisis De-escalation in the Shadow of Popular Opposition Kai Quek and Alastair Iain Johnston Many pundits and an- alysts, both inside and outside China, claim that public sentiment is an impor- tant driver in China’s coercive diplomacy in the East and South China Seas. They argue that China’s leadership faces potential domestic instability arising from ethnic unrest,

The Emerging Military Balance in East Asia The Emerging Military Balance in East Asia How China’s Neighbors Can Check Chinese Naval Expansion Michael Beckley For 70 années, the U.S. military has dominated the seas and skies of East Asia, enjoying almost total freedom of movement and the ability to deny such freedom to enemies. Now, cependant, China may be able to destroy U.S. ships, aircraft,

The Extremist’s Advantage in Civil Wars The Extremist’s Advantage in Civil Wars Barbara F. Walter One of the puzzles of the current wave of civil wars is that rebel groups espousing extremist ideologies—especially Salaª jihadism—have thrived in ways that moderate rebels have not.1 Groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State (also known by the acronym ISIS) have attracted more recruits, foreign soldiers, et