CASE STUDIES
Climate Change and Urban Migration in
Sub-Saharan African Cities: Impacts
and Governance Challenges
Bethany Tietjen1, Karen Jacobsen2, and Justin Hollander3
1Research Fellow, Climate Policy Lab, The Fletcher School, Tufts University
2Henry J. Leir Professor in Global Migration, The Fletcher School, Tufts University
3Professor of Urban and Environmental Policy and Planning, Tufts University
Keywords: urban climate challenges, migration, informal settlements, environmental degradation,
climate governance
ABSTRACT
Urban informal settlements are rapidly expanding in countries around the world. This is due
partly to high birth rates, but also because of growing in-migration driven by climate change
impacts affecting rural populations. Urban informal settlements struggle with degraded and
sometimes nonexistent infrastructure (such as water, sewage, and drainage systems) and
service provision (health, education), and these shortcomings are aggravated by urban
climate-related hazards like flooding and heat spikes. As informal settlements expand, their
already overburdened infrastructure can lead to urban disasters such as flooding and landfill
collapse. These challenges increase the governance and financial problems already faced by
cities and create significant problems for climate resilience planning processes. Policy
responses at both the national and city levels promise much but deliver little. This article
reviews what is known about the environmental problems of informal settlements, particularly
those in African cities, and how city governments have responded to those problems. We focus
on two inland cities: Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and Kampala, Uganda. We find that city climate
adaptation plans do not incorporate the perspective of migrants, who are both particularly
vulnerable to climate change and play a role in exacerbating environmental challenges
in cities.
INTRODUCTION
In 2017, 115 people were killed in an informal settlement near Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, when
the Koshe landfill collapsed and caused a landslide. Such environmental disasters are com-
mon in informal settlements across the world, putting residents at great risk. Over the past
decade, a burgeoning literature has explored how in-migration combined with environmental
challenges exacerbate the problems of African cities, especially in informal settlements. In pri-
mary and secondary cities alike, informal settlements are rapidly expanding, in part due to
growing urban migration—much of which occurs because of climate change impacts affecting
rural populations. Urban informal settlements are characterized by degraded and sometimes
nonexistent infrastructure (such as water, sewage, and drainage systems) and service provision
(health and education). These shortcomings are aggravated by climate-related hazards like
flooding and heat spikes. As informal settlements expand, the already overburdened
a n o p e n a c c e s s
j o u r n a l
Citation: Tietjen, B., Jacobsen, K., &
Hollander, J. (2023). Climate Change
and Urban Migration in Sub-Saharan
African Cities: Impacts and
Governance Challenges. Journal of
Climate Resilience & Climate Justice,
1, 20–32. https://doi.org/10.1162/crcj_a
_00009
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1162/crcj_a_00009
Corresponding Author:
Bethany Tietjen
bethany.tietjen@tufts.edu
Copyright: © 2023
Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Published under a Creative Commons
Attribution 4.0 International
(CC BY 4.0) license.
The MIT Press
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Climate Change and Urban Migration in Sub-Saharan African Cities
infrastructure can lead to urban disasters such as the Koshe landfill collapse. Policy responses
to these urban challenges at both the national and city levels promise much but deliver little.
These challenges increase the governance and financial problems already faced by cities and
create significant problems for climate resilience planning processes.
Much of the published research on climate impacts on cities in Africa focuses on coastal
cities experiencing sea level rise and flooding. There is less research on the climate risks faced
by inland and high-altitude cities in Africa, and the adaptation efforts currently underway
(Douglas et al., 2008; Frayne et al., 2012; Ndebele-Murisa et al., 2020; Simon & Leck,
2015). Most research on African cities focuses on primary, “megalopolis” cities, but two-fifths
of Africans live in towns of less than 250,000 people (Zimmer et al., 2020). These “secondary”
urban areas also struggle with informal settlements and climate hazards, but there is much less
research about them.
In this literature review, we examine the double burden of urban migration and climate
change and the challenges for local governments in African cities, given their limited power
and resources. We refer to migration resulting from both slow-onset climatic changes, such as
drought and sea level rise, and sudden onset or extreme climatic changes, such as hurricanes,
typhoons, and flash floods, which often lead to sudden forced movement, or displacement, of
people. We focus on two (primary) inland African cities that have received substantial inter-
national assistance in climate resilience and adaptation planning—Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and
Kampala, Uganda. While these cities have been explored thoroughly in the academic litera-
ture on climate resilience in African cities, they face different climate challenges than coastal
cities in Africa. Our article seeks to fill this inland gap by exploring the climate challenges
facing two major inland African cities, particularly in their informal settlements, and the
international-, national-, and city-level policy efforts to date that have sought to bolster each
city’s climate resilience. We begin with a description of informal settlements and their vulner-
ability to climate and environmental hazards.
INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS
Climate resilience in developing countries involves understanding the vulnerability of the
urban poor. Typically, informal settlements and very low-income slum areas are located on
the outskirts of cities or sometimes within formal city boundaries. Informal settlements are
areas where housing units have been constructed on land to which the occupants have no
legal claim. Additionally, this construction usually is not in compliance with regulations
related to planning, land use, built structure, and health and safety (Satterthwaite et al.,
2020). These settlements are often in areas deemed undesirable by the wider population
because of their location or landscape characteristics. For example, they might be on steep
hillsides (at risk for mudslides), near unsanitary landfills, or on floodplains. Informal settle-
ments lack what the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific
(ESCAP) (2021) calls climate resilient infrastructure such as paved roads, drainage, piped water,
or energy grids, and they have limited or no access to services such as health care or emer-
gency services, or water and waste management. There is little or inadequate oversight of
urban and land planning, and low accountability for the absence of infrastructure and services.
As a result, climate and other environmental hazards like flooding and extreme heat enhance
risks to these informal settlements areas. The combination of poverty and lack of services and
infrastructure means residents of informal settlements are highly vulnerable and less able to
cope with the direct occurrences of climate and environmental hazards, and to the indirect
consequences, such as outbreaks of infectious disease (Pharoah, 2016).
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Climate Change and Urban Migration in Sub-Saharan African Cities
Informal settlements are growing across the world, largely because of in-migration from
rural areas of the country (rural to urban migration), but migrants from other countries also
move into them. Both internal and international migrants come to cities in search of economic
opportunities and because they are driven from their villages by climate challenges, poverty,
and other livelihood threats, or because of risks such as armed conflict or persecution by
militias. Thus, informal settlements often comprise a mix of migrants, refugees, and internally
displaced people (Tacoli, 2009; Selod & Shilpi, 2021). Migrants tend to move into informal
settlements because housing is cheaper, and migrants have kin or other networks already pres-
ent who can help them. As urban settlements increase in size across Africa (and many other
parts of the world), it will become increasingly important to incorporate climate migration into
urban resilience planning in these areas (Rivero-Villar & Vieyra Medrano, 2021).
METHODOLOGY
This article is based on a systematic review of the literature on urban climate challenges in
Africa, with a particular focus on Addis Ababa and Kampala. Using Scopus and Google
Scholar, we searched for scholarly literature using the below search string. We also incorpo-
rated suggestions from local contacts on grey literature and government planning documents.
The search string was as follows: (urban AND climate AND challenge) OR (climate AND gov-
ernance) OR (informal AND settlement) OR (migrant) AND (Addis) OR (Kampala). The search
produced 140 results in Scopus and 30,800 results in Google Scholar.
We reviewed all the abstracts in the Scopus search and eliminated articles that did not men-
tion climate change or environmental degradation. On Google Scholar, due to the large vol-
ume of search results, we focused on the first 100 articles sorted by relevance to our search
terms. Beyond these first 100 articles, we reduced the sample using the following criteria for
elimination: 1) articles that only tangentially related to our topic of interest, 2) articles that were
published by journals with very low impact factors, or 3) articles that had been published at
least 24 months ago and were cited less than five times. We excluded articles that did not
focus on climate impacts or environmental degradation. Additionally, we reviewed the bibli-
ographies of articles that were particularly relevant to our search and incorporated articles
based on those citations. Our final review focused on 68 relevant articles, reports, and
books—a summary of which can be found in Table 1.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND MIGRATION IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Sub-Saharan Africa is still predominantly rural, but it has the highest rate of urbanization in the
world and predictions are that half of Africa’s population will be living in urban centers by
2030. Urban climate-related migration is driven by a range of factors including sea level rise,
extreme weather events like hurricanes and flooding, and temperature and other weather-
related changes like droughts that affect rural people’s ability to make a living from the land
(Gemenne, 2011; UN-Habitat, 2010). Quantifying the numbers of climate-related migrants is
an inexact science; however, because it is difficult to determine the specific role of climate
change impacts in a household’s decision to migrate. It is also challenging because the same
events can affect people’s ability and willingness to migrate in different ways. Climate shocks
can lead to sudden, forced displacement when a sudden-onset disaster like a hurricane or
flood occurs, and the numbers of displaced people are relatively easy to count. But slow-onset
climate change impacts affect people’s ability to stay or move over the long term, becoming a
threat multiplier that compounds the economic, political, social, and cultural factors that
cause people to move. For example, the high level of rain-fed agriculture in Sub-Saharan
Africa could mean that diminished rainfall over several seasons could eventually cause
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Climate Change and Urban Migration in Sub-Saharan African Cities
Table 1.
Summary of Included Literature
Type of Literature
All
Peer reviewed journal articles
Reports (mostly government planning
or United Nations publications)
Other: books, statistical data
Topic or Focus Area
Addis Ababa
Kampala
African Cities
Urbanization
Climate change
Migration
Informal settlements
Number Included in Review
68
50
15
3
Number Included in Review
13
9
10
38
35
14
21
farmers to migrate to informal settlements in urban areas in search of more stable livelihoods
(Serdeczny et al., 2017). Or urbanization can occur with the decline of livelihood opportuni-
ties for herders and pastoral communities as drought and desertification destroy their tradi-
tional grazing areas (Hein et al., 2009). But slow-onset changes can also render households
immobile, by destroying assets and savings and thereby diminishing the resources needed to
migrate. The very poor are less likely to be able to migrate. Thus, environmental degradation
and climate-related weather changes place additional pressures on already precarious rural
livelihoods, which can both increase migration to cities and render people unable to move.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, migration outcomes are highly context specific. For example,
Mueller et al. (2020) show the varied relationship between climate shocks and migration in
Botswana, Kenya, and Zambia. It is important to note that migration is just one adaptation
strategy utilized by rural people. Indigenous groups and other rural people have developed
a great variety of adaptation mechanisms, which strengthen their ability to cope with both slow
climatic changes and extreme climatic events (Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre
[IDMC], n.d.; Turi et al., 2019). These strategies include altering their land management
strategies, pooling resources, and diversifying livelihoods, among many others (Agrawal &
Perrin, 2001).
URBANIZATION AND CLIMATE CHALLENGES IN AFRICAN CITIES
High in-migration can increase the climate vulnerability of a city, as urban development and
informal settlements expand into hazard-prone areas (Niva et al., 2019; Tacoli et al., 2015).
Rapid urbanization puts pressure on urban landscapes, overwhelming the city’s capacity to
deliver services, and overburdening already rickety infrastructure (like drainage systems) that
increase the risk of land degradation, flooding, and mudslides (Adamo, 2010; Douglas et al.,
2008). These risks are greatly increased in informal settlements, whose residents, already poor,
are more vulnerable to the outbreaks of disease and to variation in food prices resulting from
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Climate Change and Urban Migration in Sub-Saharan African Cities
production shocks (Ahmed et al., 2009; Hertel et al., 2010; Serdeczny et al., 2017). Three
urban hazards—flooding, extreme heat, and water scarcity—are particularly problematic in
informal settlements in inland cities.
Flooding
Flooding is exacerbated with the rapid, uncontrolled expansion of informal settlements in
high- and low-elevation inland cities, especially with expansion onto floodplains, that is, land
already at flood risk (Lwasa, 2010). These settlements usually lack adequate drainage infra-
structure or the existing drainage systems have been neglected. The increasing intensity of cli-
mate change-related storms exacerbates this problem (Adelekan, 2010; Douglas et al., 2008).
In high-altitude cities, informal settlements are often on steep hillsides, where they are at risk of
mudslides and washed-out infrastructure. Flooding from extreme rain runoff leads to health
risks from water contamination aggravated by poor sanitation and dense habitation (Douglas
et al., 2008). Even though informal settlements often lack paving, densely built structures can
channel floodwater and limit drainage, especially when there is little drainage infrastructure in
the first place. Adding to this, as formal cities grow, they cover drainage areas with roofs,
roads, and pavements that can obstruct natural channels. Newly built drainage systems move
water to rivers more rapidly than under natural conditions and doing so can lead to flooding of
the rivers—and the floodplains on which informal settlements are built. Even moderate storms
now produce higher flows in rivers because of surface runoff from hard surfaces and drains
(Douglas et al., 2008).
Extreme Heat
Many African cities are susceptible to the urban heat island (UHI) effect (UN-Habitat, 2010).
Low-income areas and informal settlements are particularly susceptible to heat because there
is less shade (trees are the first casualties), and few people can afford air-conditioning. Even
fans can be of little use if people have low or no access to electricity. One study found that
in Nairobi, temperatures in informal settlement (slum) areas were consistently hotter than
nonslum areas (Scott et al., 2017). Increased heat combined with a lack of health services
creates health risks for populations unable to access cooling facilities. This vulnerability will
worsen as heat extremes become more common. The UHI can also lead to increased fre-
quency and intensity of thunderstorms, which, combined with increased heat, adversely
impacts health. These health impacts particularly affect the urban poor and elderly in infor-
mal settlements.
Water Scarcity
African cities struggle with access to safe water, and urban population growth further strains
water availability (Showers, 2002). Water shortages regularly occur in inland cities, and
droughts aggravate water crises—especially in the Horn of Africa (Filho et al., 2018). Migrants
and the urban poor in informal settlements and slums rarely have adequate access to city
services and infrastructure. Access to safe and clean water will become more difficult as cities
face large-scale water shortages. For example, the Gauteng City-Region of South Africa,
which includes Johannesburg and Pretoria, experiences the highest rate of in-migration in
South Africa with projected population growth of 25% in the next decade. In Gauteng,
23% of households report water interruptions multiple times per month (Bischoff-Mattson
et al., 2020).
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Climate Change and Urban Migration in Sub-Saharan African Cities
Climate Change Response in African Cities
The literature on civil society and environmental activism in African cities is limited, and
largely focuses on South Africa and North African countries. Environmental activism in much
of Africa is still at a low level, in part because of government restrictions on protest (Sowers
et al., 2011). In recent years there has been an uptick in the number of environmental orga-
nizations in African cities, and localized protests have grown around environmental issues.
However, these organizations are not effective at communicating with government officials,
and their activities are fragmented and have not had significant political impact to date
(Simane et al., 2016).
Climate change responses by African national and city governments are modest compared
to other regions. Local governments have led climate mitigation and adaptation activities in
many rich countries, but in African countries urban officials tend to have little political power
or financial resources. Cities try to implement national-level policies but there is little local-
level policy development (Filho et al., 2018). For example, the national environmental protec-
tion agency for Ethiopia does not maintain connections to regional offices in a way that might
aid coordination and response at the local level (Simane et al., 2016). City government
officials have little access to reliable climate data, which inhibits their ability to monitor or
evaluate changes over time. These limitations exacerbate the challenges of African cities
responding to climate change and reduce the potential for including affected communities
in city resilience planning.
Below, we examine urban adaptation and governance responses in Addis Ababa and
Kampala and suggest future directions for resilience planning in inland African cities. Both
Addis Ababa and Kampala face similar issues of many cities in Africa, both inland and coastal:
youth unemployment and poverty, lack of safe and affordable housing, water scarcity, envi-
ronmental degradation and pollution, and lack of risk awareness and emergency preparedness
(Resilient Cities Network, 2020).
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Addis Ababa is a large inland city with a population of 3.7 million people and a population
projected to reach 5.1 million by 2037. Addis has a long history of in-migration. In 2008 some
37% of Addis inhabitants were born outside the city (Moller, 2012), and that number is likely
higher today, although Ethiopia is still one of the least urbanized countries with only 21% of its
population living in urban areas as of 2019 (Dorosh & Schmidt, 2010; World Bank, n.d.).
Conflict, environmental degradation, and climate change continue to displace people in
several regions of the country, contributing to increased urbanization in all cities and towns
(ReliefWeb, 2020).
Rapid urbanization is the major cause of flooding in Addis, and continued urbanization will
further exacerbate flooding in the city (Beshir & Song, 2021). One hazard assessment found
that Addis is particularly vulnerable to flooding, drought, and heat waves noting that 67% of
the population lives in flood-prone areas (De Risi et al., 2020). A more recent study (Arsiso
et al., 2018) assessed changes in rainfall and temperature extremes in Addis Ababa using
high–spatial resolution climate data. Under multiple scenarios, they project a general increase
in rainfall and temperatures along with strong variabilities in rainfall, which could challenge
water resource management as well as land use management. Another study conducted flood
risk assessments and developed criteria for identifying suitable flood adaptation strategies and
prioritizing between viable risk mitigation measures in Addis (De Risi et al., 2020). Alongside
the challenges posed by climate change, Addis also faces environmental challenges related to
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Climate Change and Urban Migration in Sub-Saharan African Cities
waste management and the pollution of rivers and waterways. An estimated 40% of vegetables
supplied in the city are irrigated with wastewater drawn from polluted rivers (Yohannes & Elias,
2017). This pollution threatens local ecosystems and has serious health implications for the
residents of Addis.
These risk analyses and climate change projections for Addis do not discuss how informal
settlements fit into the picture. For example, it is not clear to what extent the flood-prone areas
discussed by De Risi et al. (2020) refer to informal settlements versus the entire city. Climate
estimates predict that Addis Ababa will experience increased heavy rainfall, flooding, and
higher temperatures from the UHI effect, as more land is cleared for informal settlements or
urban development (Tadege, 2007; Woldeamlak & Conway, 2007). Addis’s mountainous land-
scape is rapidly being degraded from deforestation and the resulting soil erosion, and the pro-
liferation of informal settlements. The city’s vulnerability to flooding has been aggravated by
the combination of poor drainage systems, expansion of poorly constructed informal housing
in flood-prone areas, improper waste disposal, and loss of green spaces. This decline in green
spaces is estimated to contribute to 40% of flooding and landslides in Addis. It also negatively
affects pollution mitigation, carbon sequestration, runoff regulation, and water
security—further exacerbating Addis’s vulnerability to shocks and stresses (Resilient Cities Net-
work, 2020).
Some 80% of houses in Addis’s inner-city area, known as Kebele housing, are character-
ized as slums due to overcrowding and inadequate infrastructure. Many of the houses lack
infrastructure for drinking water, sanitation, and cooking (Resilient Cities Network, 2020).
While Kebele housing is not necessarily in informal settlements, these communities struggle
with the same issues. Informal settlements are on the rise too, as the city’s lack of affordable
housing pushes households to buy land from farmers in outlying areas of the city. These infor-
mal housing situations, known locally as Chereka Bet, are built on unused land and are often at
high risk of environmental hazards like flooding. Only 7% of the city population is connected
to sewage systems (Resilient Cities Network, 2020).
Estimates vary regarding the exact number of people living in informal settlements in Addis,
but a study by the Urban Development and Works Bureau found that in 2008, almost 400,000
people in the city were living in informal settlements (Bikis & Pandey, 2023). In 2008, Addis’s
population was 2.7 million people (De Risi et al., 2020), meaning that almost 15% of the pop-
ulation lived in informal settlements in 2008. With an increase of one million people since
2008, it is likely that population of informal settlements has increased significantly. Other esti-
mates suggest that as much as 70% of city residents lived in informal settlements in 2020 (Bikis
& Pandey, 2023). The range of estimates highlights the challenges of estimating the population
numbers in informal settlements, which are often left out of censuses and are difficult to reach
in survey research. Informal settlement populations can also be estimated by looking at
unplanned areas of a city. Using satellite imagery, UN Habitat found that about 40% of the
administrative area of Addis was considered unplanned or slum areas (Karadimitriou et al.,
2021).
Government Response
The Addis Ababa Resilience Strategy (Resilient Cities Network, 2020), developed by the city
government and the Global Resilient Cities Network, states government action is needed to
improve infrastructure and reduce the city’s vulnerability to climate change shocks and
stresses. Through a partnership with the 100 Resilient Cities network, the city appointed a chief
resilience officer and established the Addis Ababa Resilience Project Office. The three pillars
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Climate Change and Urban Migration in Sub-Saharan African Cities
of action outlined in the strategy are: 1) building a safe and thriving city, 2) taking a more
participatory, human-centric approach to designing the city, and 3) creating a livable city that
promotes the health and well-being of its residents (Resilient Cities Network, 2020). Each pillar
has goals related to safe and affordable housing, water and sanitation, governance, and trans-
portation, among other targets. The government’s policy commitments around these themes
include designing a joint program with Oromia National Regional State to conserve, restore,
and sustainably manage Addis’s surrounding mountain and urban forest ecosystems. The
program commits to incorporating local communities in designing and implementing the pro-
gram. Other commitments include a drainage master plan to address localized flooding, and
an urban agriculture initiative aimed at addressing concerns about food insecurity in the city.
Another goal is to launch a study on the informal economy to develop more effective
responses tailored to vulnerable groups, including migrants. These commitments are all aspi-
rational, and progress on them will need to be monitored.
The Addis Ababa Resilience Strategy does not address informal settlements, which are par-
ticularly vulnerable to climate hazards. It simply calls for more study of the informal economy
to develop more effective policy interventions. In response to the proliferation of informal set-
tlements, the Resilience Strategy says,
Government-owned Kebele housing remains the primary housing option for the city’s
urban poor. However, due to this housing’s poor quality, its lack of safety, and the valu-
able land that it stands on, the City has been demolishing it and resettling residents who
have legal claims to the homes either in condominium housing or on the outskirts of the
city, where access to services and livelihood opportunities are often limited (Resilient
Cities Network, 2020).
One critique of these practices concerns the lack of participation by the poor in decision-
making processes regarding their relocation and a lack of public trust in the process.
Charitonidou (2021) calls for urban planning solutions in Addis Ababa to be based on a
“negotiated planning” approach, with close analysis of the connections between plan-
ning, infrastructure, and land. Such an approach would also benefit climate resilience
planning for the city. More research is needed on how government relocation affects
migrant and informal settlement communities in Addis.
Along with relocation policies, city government officials in Addis have targeted informal
settlements with the goal of providing better ecosystem services to the city to improve the
water supply, air quality, and sanitation, and increase plant life and trees. All these steps
can help city residents adapt to the impacts of climate change, if implemented effectively
(Dubbale et al., 2010). At the national level, the Environment Policy of Ethiopia, Ethiopian
Programme of Adaptation to Climate Change, and the Climate-Resilient Green Economy
Strategy together promote several climate resilience and planning programs throughout the
country. These include a climate monitoring program, an attempt to integrate climate change
planning into national-level policies, plans to improve drought control, build climate resilient
infrastructure, develop early warning systems for agricultural threats, and improve energy effi-
ciency for transport and buildings (Filho et al., 2018). However, the plans lack any strategy on
how to manage the impact of migration on cities like Addis.
Kampala, Uganda
Kampala is an inland city on Africa’s largest lake, Lake Victoria, and like other African cities, is
facing recurrent climate and migration challenges, including heavy flooding, particularly
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Climate Change and Urban Migration in Sub-Saharan African Cities
during the rainy seasons, which have become more intense and less predictable (Lwasa,
2010). The increased occurrence of heavy rainfall events, widespread encroachment on wet-
lands, environmental degradation (including open dumping of solid wastes), and inadequate
physical planning are all driving the severity of flooding (Lwasa, 2010). Kampala also struggles
with the UHI effect, exacerbated by the expansion of informal settlements, and impervious city
surfaces that magnify the UHI effect (Twinomuhangi et al., 2021). Wetlands have shrunk as
new construction often occurs in drained wetland areas. The resulting flooding and waterlog-
ging can lead to diseases and other health impacts (Isunju et al., 2016). Pollution and waste-
water control place further stress on local ecosystems and increase risk of disease (Kampala
Capital City Authority [KCCA], 2015). These stressors combined with high urbanization rates
in Kampala increase the strain on resources and expand the population of people living in
parts of the city that are most vulnerable to climate hazards.
Kampala is one of the fastest growing cities in the world and is projected to grow from
around 3.5 million to between 8–10 million people over the next 3 decades. City growth-rate
estimates vary from 2% to 5.5% annually (Uganda Bureau of Statistics, 2016; Vermeiren et al.,
2012). According to the Kampala Climate Change Action Plan, the city sees a daily influx of
around two million people entering the city for business, transit, and other activities (KCCA,
2015). Those who move permanently to Kampala usually move into existing low-income
neighborhoods or informal settlement settlements that are often in or near risk-prone areas
such as wetlands or floodplains (UN-Habitat, 2006). As with Addis, estimates of informal set-
tlement populations in Kampala vary, though estimates suggest that over 60% of Kampala’s
population live in informal settlements (Renzaho et al., 2020; UN-Habitat, 2006). Later esti-
mates by UN-Habitat (2010) found that 85% of urban residents in Ugandan cities live in slums
or informal settlements. Based on Kampala’s current population, this suggests an informal set-
tlement population of at least two million people.
As a regional center of economic activity, Kampala is a major destination hub for migrants
within Uganda, as well as refugees who have fled the Democratic Republic of Congo,
Rwanda, and South Sudan, among other countries over the past several decades. As of
2019, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) had registered more
than 76,000 refugees in Kampala, but likely there are many more unregistered refugees
(UNHCR, 2019).
Government Responses
Uganda is one of the countries participating in UNHCR’s Comprehensive Refugee Response
Framework.1 Accordingly, the KCCA collaborated with the United Nations (UN) on a 2018
report called the “Strategic Response to Displacement, Migration and Resettlement” (KCCA,
2018).
The 2015 Kampala Climate Change Action plan identifies climate responses that the gov-
ernment says it will carry out (KCCA, 2015). Alongside mitigation policies such as a 22%
reduction of emissions below business-as-usual scenarios, the government’s adaptation goals
include reducing the number of people exposed to climate change threats and coordinating
intentionally planned and integrated neighborhoods. The plan addresses three issues: 1) the
short and long-term adaptation of the city to climate change impacts, 2) charting a low
1 The CRRF aims to link humanitarian programming to long-term development goals of the city, strengthen the
coordination, sustainability, and impact of multistakeholder responses to urban displacement, understand
the needs and preferences of urban displaced persons, and ensure that displaced and marginalized residents
are included in public services.
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Climate Change and Urban Migration in Sub-Saharan African Cities
emissions development path for the city, and 3) transforming the threat of climate change into
an opportunity for residents. Goals include action items related to transportation, housing,
energy, and land use. Kampala’s 2015 climate plan does not mention projects that have
already occurred, but identifies goals related to improving waste and sanitation systems, devel-
oping a more efficient transportation system, and integrating land use challenges into city plan-
ning (KCCA, 2015).
As with the Addis strategic plans, many of Kampala’s climate commitments are aspirational
and largely ineffective. Since 2015, few of its goals have been achieved. Kampala’s climate
challenges continue to be exacerbated by urbanization and expansion of informal settlements
(Ismail, 2020). In 2019, residents of the Bwaise informal settlement in Kampala dug trenches
around their houses to prevent floodwaters from entering their homes (Broto et al., 2022).
Updates are needed on the progress made by the Kampala Climate Change Authority in recent
years (Rivero-Villar & Vieyra Medrano, 2021). Although the action plan highlighted the chal-
lenges urban migrants and the poor face, it did not mention plans to include these groups into
city resilience planning. Informal settlements remain a challenge for Kampala.
Comparing Resilience Strategies in Addis and Kampala—Lessons and Best Practices
Like the victims of the Koshe landfill collapse in Addis Ababa, many low-income communities
in African cities are at great risk for climate and environmental disasters. City governments like
those in Addis and Kampala have developed high-level plans to increase resilience in their
cities. Persistent climate challenges will continue to be exacerbated by increasing rural to
urban migration and the growth of informal settlements. Although much of each city’s growth
is occurring in the form of informal settlements, neither Addis nor Kampala city and national
authorities pay much attention to these areas. Despite several calls to incorporate representa-
tives from informal settlements in planning, neither Addis nor Kampala have successfully done
so. This is a significant gap that will become wider unless city authorities turn their sights to
improving resilience and climate mitigation efforts in these areas.
In both Addis and Kampala there are ongoing efforts on the parts of nongovernmental and
community-based organizations, like the Resilient Cities Network, to address the flooding
and water-scarcity problems of their own communities. These efforts could be supported
and expanded by city governments, but so far there is no sign that this is happening. To
mitigate these challenges and build climate resilient cities, governments must incorporate
migrants and the urban poor into their resilience plans. The ongoing exclusion of these
vulnerable populations not only aggravates their condition but poses wider threats to the
resilience of the entire city.
There are a few concrete areas where both cities could implement policy changes to
respond to the broader extreme heat, drought, and flooding problems outlined earlier in this
article. First, there is a dire need in both cities for improved public trust. With much of the
current policy agenda focusing on high-end real estate development projects, citywide
residents and especially those living in informal settlements have little reason to believe their
priorities are being heard. Second, green infrastructure can be a valuable policy solution for
Kampala and Addis—both cities can benefit from increased integration of dedicated green
spaces with high-infiltration capacity for managing storm water and flood control, particularly
informal settlements. Both cities can follow successful examples of such green infrastructure
implementation in Indonesia, China, and the United Kingdom, where cities expanded green
spaces and effectively managed flooding (Akbar et al., 2017; Li et al., 2020). These green-
scapes can also introduce trees that provide shade and mitigate against the UHI effect. It
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Climate Change and Urban Migration in Sub-Saharan African Cities
should be noted that informal settlements are not serviced by conventional infrastructure,
something that ought to be addressed in concert with any green infrastructure improvements.
Third, drinking water and sewerage management can be more professionalized and improved
upon in both cities—whereby climate-impacted informal settlements can address chronic
lacks of fresh drinking water and disease outbreaks related to exposed sewerage. Successful
examples for these kinds of initiatives have been documented in Pakistan’s informal settle-
ments where engineers introduce separate piping for fresh water and sewerage (Hasan,
2006). Such enhancements can go a long way in both Kampala and Addis to enhance public
health for the residents of informal settlements.
Lastly, these three solutions for Kampala and Addis are not siloed, they are each connected
to one another and ought to be addressed through the investment in local urban planning
capacity in both cities. Public trust can be garnered through active local government engage-
ment with residents around their challenges. Planting trees and piping in fresh water, for exam-
ple, can be done in a comprehensive way that supports broader community needs in both
Addis and Kampala. Stronger and more heavily resourced local governments in both cities
can be more responsive to residents’ needs. Both cities can adopt and implement the kind
of community plans, building off the efforts discussed here, that will be embraced by people
and directly address the challenges raised in this research. Both Kampala and Addis are
already implementing their climate action plans and it is feasible to integrate these solutions
with increased financial support and interest from outside agencies or foundations.
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