Seasonal Poverty and Seasonal Migration in Asia Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak and Maira Emy Reimão∗ Four in five poor people in the Asia and Pacific region live in rural areas. Crop cycles in agrarian areas create periods of seasonal deprivation, or preharvest “lean seasons,” when work is scarce and skipped meals become frequent. en este documento, we document this phenomenon of seasonal poverty and discuss existing

The Cost of Being Under the Weather: Droughts, Floods, and Health-Care Costs in Sri Lanka Diana De Alwis and Ilan Noy∗ We measure the impact of extreme weather events—droughts and floods—on health-care utilization and expenditures in Sri Lanka. We find that frequently occurring local floods and droughts impose a significant health risk when individuals are directly exposed to these hazards. Individuals are also at risk

Improving Public Infrastructure in the Philippines Takuji Komatsuzaki∗ the macroeconomic effects of the analysis uses a dynamic general equilibrium model This paper explores improving public infrastructure in the Philippines, modeling the infrastructure scale-up plan being implemented by the current administration. After benchmarking the Philippines’ level of infrastructure investment, quantity and quality of public infrastructure, and public investment efficiency relative to its neighboring countries, to raising

Wages Over the Course of Structural Transformation: Evidence from India Rana Hasan and Rhea Molato∗ This paper uses labor force survey data from India for 2000 y 2012 to examine how wages behave over the course of structural transformation. We find that wage employment between 2000 y 2012 displays the patterns one would expect for an economy undergoing structural transformation, with employment shares shifting from

Global Value Chains and Employment Growth in Asia Neil Foster-Mcgregor∗ This paper considers the sources of employment demand in Asian economies. Using data from the World–Input Output Database, I examine the relative importance of domestic and foreign demand in generating employment. Despite some degree of heterogeneity across the sample, domestic demand is found to be the major driver of employment in all cases. Más, el

From Import Substitution to Integration into Global Production Networks: The Case of the Indian Automobile Industry Prema-chandra Athukorala and C. Veeramani∗ This paper examines the growth trajectory and the current state of the Indian automobile industry, paying attention to factors that underpinned its transition from import substitution to integration into global production networks. Market-conforming policies implemented by the government of India over the past 2

Structural Transformation to Manufacturing and Services: What Role for Trade? Kym Anderson and Sundar Ponnusamy∗ Understanding how and why economies structurally transform as they grow is crucial for making sound national policy decisions. Typically, analysts who study this issue focus on sectoral shares of gross domestic product and employment. This paper extends those studies to include exports, including exports of services. It also considers mining,

Transformación estructural en el mundo: Patterns and Drivers Kunal Sen∗ The conventional view of structural transformation is informed by three stylized facts of economic development: (i) all economies exhibit declining employment in agriculture, (ii) all economies exhibit a hump-shaped share of employment in industry, y (iii) all economies exhibit an increasing share of employment this presumed path of structural in services. en este documento, I

The Long-Run Determinants of Indian Government Bond Yields Tanweer Akram and Anupam Das∗ This paper investigates the long-term determinants of the nominal yields of Indian government bonds (IGBs). It examines whether John Maynard Keynes’ supposition that the short-term interest rate is the key driver of the long-term government bond yield holds over the long run, after controlling for key economic factors. It also appraises if

The Labor Productivity Gap between the Agricultural and Nonagricultural Sectors, and Poverty and Inequality Reduction in Asia Katsushi Imai, Raghav Gaiha, and Fabrizio Bresciani∗ The objective of this paper is to examine how agricultural and nonagricultural labor productivities have grown over time and whether the growth pattern affected poverty in low- and middle-income economies in Asia. We first examine whether labor productivities in the agricultural

Labor Market Returns to Education and English Language Skills in the People’s Republic of China: An Update M Niaz Asadullah and Saizi Xiao∗ We reexamine the economic returns to education in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) using data from the Chinese General Social Survey 2010. We find that the conventional ordinary least squares estimate of wage returns to schooling is 7.8%, while the instrumental

Foreign Direct Investment and Productivity: A Cross-Country, Multisector Analysis Rodolphe Desbordes and Loe Franssen∗ This paper adopts a cross-country, multisector approach to investigate the intra- and inter-industry effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the productivity of 15 emerging market economies in 2000 y 2008. Our main finding is that intra-industry FDI has a large positive effect on total and “exported” labor productivity. The effects

Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform in the Developing World: Who Wins, Who Loses, and Why? Ian Coxhead and Corbett Grainger∗ Fossil fuel subsidies are widespread in developing countries, where reform efforts are often derailed by disputes over the likely distribution of gains and losses. The impacts of subsidy reform are transmitted to households through changes in energy prices and prices of other goods and services, como

Regional Cooperation on Carbon Markets in East Asia Jiajia Li and Junjie Zhang∗ The People’s Republic of China, Japón, and the Republic of Korea have launched individual emission trading schemes to control greenhouse gas emissions cost-effectively. This paper reviews key carbon market design elements in the three countries in terms of emission allowances, covered sectors, allowance allocations, supervisión, reporting and verification, compliance and penalties, y

Carbon Trading Scheme in the People’s Republic of China: Evaluating the Performance of Seven Pilot Projects Xing Chen and Jintao Xu∗ The People’s Republic of China (PRC) launched seven emissions trading scheme (ETS) pilot projects in 2013–2014 to explore a cost-effective approach for low-carbon development. The central government subsequently announced its plans for the full-fledged implementation of ETS in the entire PRC in late 2017.

Indonesia’s Moratorium on Palm Oil Expansion from Natural Forests: Economy-Wide Impacts and the Role of International Transfers Arief A. Yusuf, Elizabeth L. Roos, and Jonathan M. Horridge∗ Indonesia has introduced a moratorium on the conversion of natural forests to land used for palm oil production. Using a dynamic, bottom-up, interregional computable general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy, we assess several scenarios of the moratorium

Does Climate Change Bolster the Case for Fishery Reform in Asia? Christopher Costello∗ I examine the estimated economic, ecológico, and food security effects of future fishery management reform in Asia. Without climate change, most Asian fisheries stand to gain substantially from reforms. Optimizing fishery management could increase catch by 24% and profit by 34% over business- as-usual management. These benefits arise from fishing some stocks

Temperature Variability and Mortality: Evidencia de 16 Asian Countries Olivier Deschenes∗ This paper presents an empirical analysis devised to understand the complex relationship between extreme temperatures and mortality in 16 Asian countries where more than 50% of the world’s population resides. Using a country-year panel on mortality rates and various measures of high temperatures for 1960–2015, the analysis produces two primary findings. Primero, high temperatures