ESTUDIOS DE CASOS
A Review of the Impact of Climate Change on
Water Security and Livelihoods in Semiarid Africa:
Cases From Kenya, Malawi, and Ghana
Dinko Hanaan Dinko1 and Ibrahim Bahati2
1Department of Geology and Geography, Mount Holyoke College
2Human Sciences Research Council, South Africa
un acceso abierto
diario
Palabras clave: water security, climate change, semiarid, África, political economy
ABSTRACTO
Within semiarid Africa, precipitation is the most important hydrological variable upon which
livelihoods are carved since it determines the cycle of rainfall and water security needed
for agriculture. Sin embargo, research shows that climate change has largely altered that. Este
article critically reviews the extensive literature on climate-water-livelihoods in semiarid
sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting the common threads that underlie them. By comparing three
cases in three different regions (Ghana for West Africa, Kenya for East Africa, and Malawi for
Southern Africa), this article provides a basis for cross-comparison and a framework for
understanding the impact of climate change on water security and livelihoods in semiarid
África. A cross-country, cross-region comparison of the impact of climate change on water
security is essential for long-term and medium-term preparedness for adaptation to climate-
induced water insecurity. Fundamentalmente, this calls for a renewed focus on the synergies between
climate change and social, ecológico, political, and economic factors, which have often been
ignored in the water insecurity and climate change discourse on semiarid areas.
INTRODUCCIÓN
Water resources in Africa’s semiarid regions have come under pressure over the last 4 décadas,
to warnings of reaching near “dangerous levels of water stress” (Banco mundial, 2022). Due to
climate change, water insecurity in Africa and beyond has brought an existential debate about
water ethics in terms of use, access rights, and sustainability (Groenfeldt, 2019). Water inse-
curity includes elements of water scarcity where the water demand exceeds water availability
and lack of access to safe water supplies (Matchawe et al., 2022). Swelling urban growth,
environmental degradation, and anthropogenic pollution continue to limit access for large
populations in the region (Kahn, 2009). With livelihoods in semiarid Africa carved around
rainfed agriculture, the impact of climate change and variability on food and income security
remains uncertain, putting the discourse of water insecurity into the greater hydropolitics of
agua (Hellberg, 2018). Por ejemplo, Kankam-Yeboah et al. (2013) have projected a 50%
decrease in streamflow in the Volta Basin by 2050. Similarmente, Barron et al. (2015) have dis-
cussed how agricultural water management interventions for smallholders in the Volta and
Limpopo basins could be best utilized to build resilience against climate change. El impacto
of climate change on floods and droughts in terms of vulnerability and disaster risk reduction
in the northern savannah has been explored (Armah et al., 2010; Douxchamps et al., 2014;
Citación: Dinko, D. h., & Bahati, I.
(2023). A Review of the Impact of
Climate Change on Water Security and
Livelihoods in Semiarid Africa: Cases
From Kenya, Malawi, and Ghana.
Journal of Climate Resilience & Clima
Justicia, 1, 107–118. https://doi.org/10
.1162/crcj_a_00002
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1162/crcj_a_00002
Supporting Information:
https://www.webofscience.com/wos
/woscc/summary/9467d6e0-2549-40bc
-9e76-89fdc0b08c72-596a127d
/relevance/1
Autor correspondiente:
Dinko Hanaan Dinko
hanaandinko.dinko@du.edu
Derechos de autor: © 2023
Instituto de Tecnología de Massachusetts.
Publicado bajo Creative Commons
Atribución 4.0 Internacional
(CC POR 4.0) licencia.
La prensa del MIT
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A Review of the Impact of Climate Change in Semiarid Africa
Poussin et al., 2015). While these are important in the climate-water-livelihoods discourse in
semiarid Africa, they tended to be basin-specific (Abubakari et al., 2017; Kankam-Yeboah et al.,
2013; Mahe et al., 2013; Niasse, 2005; Oyebande, 2013), model-oriented (Faramarzi et al.,
2013; Muller, 2009; Nyadzi et al., 2018; Roudier et al., 2014; tomás & Nigam, 2018), o
subregion focused (Barry et al., 2018; Callo-Concha et al., 2013; Oyebande, 2013; Paeth
et al., 2008; Yaro & Hesselberg, 2016).
Transcending these gaps, this article provides a rapid review of the climate-water-
livelihoods literature in semiarid sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting the common thread that
underlies them. The article first looks at individual case analyses of how Ghana, Kenya,
and Malawi are dealing with climate-water-insecurity, followed by cross-comparison in under-
standing the impact of climate in semiarid Africa. The article aims to highlight how climate
change and water insecurity are urgencies of both nation-states and regions, calling for short
and long-term adaptation and preparedness to climate-induced water insecurity.
Además, water security issues need to be tied to the greater debate on the political
economy of tackling climate change (Fritz et al., 2021), including adaptation (Sovacool & Linnér,
2016), framing, and knowledge dissemination (Armstrong et al., 2018), and understanding the
relationship between climate change and capital accumulation (Xie & cheng, 2021). Devel-
oping countries, including those in semiarid Africa, have been the least contributors to climate
cambiar, yet still operate in the confines of the managerial climate change policy approach
from the Global North (Arnall et al., 2014), including talks of “just transitions” (Newell
& Mulvaney, 2013) to green economies. The political economy of climate change here deals
with nuances between the social and political processes on how water insecurity has affected
livelihoods and created urgencies of disaster preparedness in semiarid Africa.
METODOLOGÍA
We conducted a rapid review of the literature on climate change and water security in the
three countries. Unlike a systematic review, a rapid review does not require a double review
of each paper. Además, a rapid review limits analysis to only the papers from the queried
results database. Although it is less systematic, rapid reviews provide well-timed and data-
informed contextualized summaries of the literature for policymakers to address evolving
issues quickly (Kerr et al., 2022; Khangura et al., 2012; Sharpe et al., 2017), while shaping
ongoing scholarly discourse. We conducted a systematic search in Web of Science using Boolean
operatives and keywords as shown in the Supporting Information. Using the search criteria, 1,150
papers were refined further to journal articles, reviews, and book chapters. This process generated
1,030 documentos (see the Supporting Information for details). El 1,030 papers were screened for
contextual relevance, subject relevance, and credibility (ver figura 1). We used two main criteria
to determine the credibility of papers. Primero, papers were deemed credible if methods, datos, y
conclusions logically flow into each other. Segundo, the papers were deemed credible if they
were not published in journals on Beall’s List (Beall, 2022).
After screening for relevance, 154 papers were meticulously reviewed, y 84 ended up
being used in the article. El 84 papers were then categorized into the three case studies and
read immersively to allow key themes of differences and similarities to emerge. Además,
eight grey literature sources from government and the World Bank were included in this article
to provide relevant contextual data for the three countries (ver tabla 1). We included all stud-
ies from 1990 a 2021 that addressed the relationship between climate change, water security,
and impacts on livelihoods in the three countries. Papers that did not explicitly examine the
intersections of climate change impacts on water insecurity and livelihoods were excluded.
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A Review of the Impact of Climate Change in Semiarid Africa
Cifra 1.
Science at Clarivate Query.
Summary of refined Web of Science database search. *Some papers are cross-listed across disciplines. Generated from Web of
ESTUDIOS DE CASOS
The following subsections show how climate change has altered the cycle of rainfall and
caused water insecurity in semiarid Africa. It presents literature by case analysis in the three
countries, highlighting the trajectory of climate change evidence, projections on water inse-
curity, and regional implications on livelihoods.
Kenya Case Study
In Kenya, agriculture remains the main driver of economic growth and employs more than half
of the labor force, which is reliant on the availability of water. The importance of agriculture is
reflected in the fact that in 2017, agriculture contributed to 65% of merchandise exports
(Wankuru et al., 2019). Con 80% of the landmass being semiarid and less than 2% of arable
land under irrigation (Mogaka et al., 2006), Kenya’s economy is particularly vulnerable to cli-
mate change and variability. Compared to neighboring Tanzania and Uganda with 2,940 y
2,696 cubic meters of water per capita per year, respectivamente, Kenya has just about 1,700 cubic
meters per capita per year (Wankuru et al., 2019). This makes Kenya a water-scarce country
under the United Nations (UN) water classification system (UN-Water, 2013). The hydrology
of Kenya is largely governed by the rainfall regime as there are very few transboundary rivers in
Kenya. It is also determined by the movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ),
which produces two rainfall seasons and two dry seasons. The ITCZ has been disrupted largely
Mesa 1.
Summary of Web of Science Searches and the Number of Papers Reviewed
Search type
Refined search count
Papers screened
Papers reviewed
Papers cited from the search
Grey literature outside of the search
Number of papers
1,150
1,030
154
84
8
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A Review of the Impact of Climate Change in Semiarid Africa
by climate change. This is acknowledged by the government of Kenya, which asserts that the
country is generally experiencing a warmer temperature trend over the past 5 décadas (GoK,
2013). Además, nicholson (2016) reports a decreasing rainfall over the semiarid areas in
Kenya since the 1970s. nicholson (2014) further demonstrates that during the 2008–2011
drought in the Horn of Africa, rainfall in northern Kenya was 50–70% below normal seasonal
rainfall the decade earlier.
Además, drought in Kenya is often driven by La Niña. With multiple consecutive years
of droughts, a result of poor rains and dry spells over the past decade, there has been little to
no recovery among affected households whose livelihoods are determined by the rhythm of
the climate. This puts pressure on existing water resources and thus brews competition for
access, control, and use rights to water bodies. In a region characterized by instability and
uncontrolled arms circulation, such contestations have often resulted in violent armed con-
flicts (Dinko, 2022). In semiarid northern Kenya, Witsenburg and Adano (2009) have argued
that rainfall does not just determine water availability, but it determines pasture, crop yields,
and milk availability. As the water gets scarcer during drought seasons, pressure on shallow
wells increases, and the propensity of people to fight for access similarly escalates. Beyond
tensions in social relations, droughts have a significant impact on food and livestock produc-
ción. Por ejemplo, el 1990/2000 drought resulted in a decline of one million tons in maize
producción (GoK, 2013). Such steep declines in a major food staple such as maize have had a
knock-on effect on the prices of food, leading to nationwide food insecurity protests recently in
Julio 2022 (“About 3.5 million Kenyans Facing Food Insecurity—WHO," 2022). Like the food
crop sector, livestock production has suffered significant losses in drought years (Barrios et al.,
2010; Hope et al., 2012; Mogaka et al., 2006; Sutherland et al., 1991).
Water insecurity resulting from climatic change and variability does not just manifest in
droughts but also in floods. While floods may not be as frequent as droughts in Kenya’s semi-
arid regions, their devastating impact cuts across key sectors of the economy. The flooding
regime in Kenya is often associated with the onset of the El Niño warming effect on the tropical
pacific region (Barrios et al., 2010; Dunning et al., 2018; Gebrechorkos et al., 2019; Otieno &
Anyah, 2013; nicholson, 2014). Unlike droughts whose onset is slow, and whose response
could be planned, flash floods are often sudden, and in semiarid Kenya where there is little
investment in climate science, floods can be devastating. Opere (2013, pag. 13) reports that the
1997–1998 floods in Kenya “caused some US$151.4 million in public and private property
damage” and several hundreds of lives lost. Aside from damage to life and infrastructure,
floods also pose a significant threat to public health. Mogaka et al. (2006) show that after the
2003 floods, there was a 60% rise in waterborne diseases and a 32% increase in malaria cases.
Wakeford (2017) notes that food and health security are not the only casualties of droughts in
Kenya. Con 35% of its energy needs dependent on hydroelectricity, the ramifications of
droughts reverberate beyond food and ecosystem security to the entire economy (Karekezi
et al., 2009; Wakeford, 2017). En 2018, the Sondu Miriu Hydroelectric Power Station with
an installed generation capacity of 80 megawatts could only generate 10 megawatts
(Gebrechorkos et al., 2019). Such a sharp reduction in generating capacity limits economic
growth, which in turn has chain effects on well-being and human development in the long run.
Malawi Case Study
In Malawi, climate change poses a significant threat to the economic growth and livelihoods of
poor and vulnerable populations. The vulnerability of Malawi to climate change emanates
from the fact that agriculture, which supports the livelihoods of 80% of Malawians, is rainfed
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A Review of the Impact of Climate Change in Semiarid Africa
(Arndt et al., 2019). Además, Malawi’s industrial front is predominantly agrarian, hence the
entire economy is immensely vulnerable to the forces of climatic change. Malawi ranks 171
out of 189 on the league of wealth and poverty nations with a Human Development Index
(IDH) de 0.477 (African Development Bank, 2018). Although its HDI increased by 40%
entre 1990 y 2017, more than half of the population (50.7%) live below the poverty line,
while a quarter (25%) are chronically poor (United Nations Development Programme [UNDP],
2021). With more than 90% of the population dependent on rainfed agriculture, clima
extremes as manifested in droughts and floods could significantly erode yields and conse-
quently food security. Joshua et al. (2016) indicate that over 15% of Malawians were affected
by the 2012/2013 flooding, translating into 2.31 million people in need of food and associated
aid while 176 people were killed and a quarter of a million people were displaced.
With climate change expected to increase the frequency of weather extremes, the other
climatic threat (besides floods) Malawi is expected to witness is droughts. Observed temper-
atures over Malawi in the past 50 years indicate an increasing trend of about 0.21°C per
decade (Msowoya et al., 2016; Vizy et al., 2015). Nicholson et al. (2014) report a 1°C increase
in temperature between 1960 y 2006. While there is a clear trend in temperature increases,
the rainfall trend is less clear. Mughogho (2014), por ejemplo, finds that farmers perceived a
decreasing amount of rainfall with increasing within-season variability. Ngongondo et al.
(2011) similarly report that increases in evaporation losses between 1971 y 2000 tener
led to a decreased runoff. When taken together, increased temperature and declining rainfall
mean that Malawi has experienced less than the usual amount of water. This projection toward
a hotter and drier climate is not limited to Malawi, but rather stretched to the whole of the
Southern African region as per Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013), noting
a likely increase of 5°C by the end of the century. This is similar to what Mariotti et al. (2013)
sugerir, that Malawi and other countries with a single rainy season will experience a delay in the
onset of rains and when rains start, long dry spells will likely be common. In the context of
Malawi, where the population growth rate is about 3% (African Development Bank, 2018), este
could mean food insecurity and pressure on water resources in the face of a burgeoning popu-
lación. Por ejemplo, Asfaw et al. (2015) suggest that maize production, the predominant food
crop accounting for 70% of cropped land in Malawi, has been erratic due to a combination
of climate change and other nonclimatic factors, including low technology uptake.
Finalmente, the food insecurity and poverty situation outlined above essentially highlights water
availability or lack thereof (as manifested in floods and droughts) and its impact on agriculture
producción. De Wit and Stankiewicz (2006) contend that increasing temperature and a concomi-
tant decline in rainfall could lead to a 10% drop in river flow in the Zambezi basin, cual
covers much of Malawi. This will have a direct impact on water availability for drinking, agri-
cultural use, and hydroelectric power generation in Malawi. Similarmente, Kumambala (2010)
finds that water levels in Lake Malawi will decline due to increasing droughts and evaporative
loss from warmer temperatures. Con 92% of Malawians having access to water mainly
through surface water sources, which are rain-dependent, changes in precipitation could
increase the water insecurity situation.
Ghana Case Study
Surface water is crucial to agriculture and power generation in Ghana’s semiarid region. Cli-
mate studies have increasingly indicated rainfall, the source of water upon which surface
water sources depend, is decreasing in semiarid Ghana. Por ejemplo, Nicholson et al.
(2000) reports a reduction of 15 a 40% in rainfall over 30 años (1968–1997) across semiarid
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West Africa. These findings are consistent with assertions by Owusu and Waylen (2009) eso
the total amount of rainfall in northern Ghana has declined since the 1960s. The Government
of Ghana’s assessment of climate change further acknowledges that Ghana has experienced
about a 1°C rise in temperature and a 20% overall reduction in rainfall since 1980 (A NOSOTROS.
Environmental Protection Agency [EPA], 2000). The above findings have been contested by
Antwi-Agyei et al. (2017) and Appiah (2019) who observe an improvement in rainfall in
recent years, albeit that the recovery has been in the southern forested areas of Ghana. Mientras
these contending findings are useful for academic debates, they both use mean annual tem-
perature and rainfall, which may not be relevant because they fail to show within-season
variabilidad. In semiarid Ghana, what is important is rainy season variability. It is the unpre-
dictability of seasonal variations that have serious implications on crop production and
water insecurity issues. En otras palabras, farmers’ experiences of climate are not in annual
averages, but crucially the distribution of rainfall during the rainy season, which has impli-
cations on staple crops and water security outcomes for households.
Generally, an overwhelming majority of local climate models in semiarid Ghana point to
drying trends, where semiarid areas such as Ghana will get drier, while the wet tropical forest
regions will get wetter. A key proponent of the drying thesis is reported by Amadou et al.
(2018), who projects that the mean daily temperature over Ghana will increase by between
2.5°C and 3.2°C, while rainfall is expected to decline by 9 a 27% by the end of the century.
This scenario is consistent with observations that rainfall has generally declined over the last
50 years in West Africa due to the long-term general southward shift of the migration of the
ITCZ (Dickinson et al., 2017).
Changes in rainfall translate into food and water security challenges. In Ghana’s semiarid
región, there is growing evidence that the impacts of climate change will significantly alter the
water security cycle with debilitating consequences on food security and poverty reduction and
undermine adaptive capacity (Dinko et al., 2019; Nyantakyi-Frimpong & Bezner-Kerr, 2015;
Yaro, 2013). According to Ghana’s Third National Communication Report to the UNFCCC,
observed historical minimum temperatures have increased by 2% in the south (rainforest, coastal
agroecological, deciduous, and transition zones) y 37% in the north (Guinea and Sudan
savannah zones) (Amlalo & Oppong-Boadi, 2015). When taken together as a geospatial unit,
the average rate of climate change may present modest changes in Ghana. Sin embargo, this picture
is misleading as it masks wide spatial variation of observed and projected climatic changes.
Like observed and projected temperature changes, rainfall decline is greater in the Sudan
Savannah than in any other agroecological zone. Because agriculture is almost exclusively
rainfed coupled with limited diversification of livelihood options, the decline in rainfall has
the potential to offset large-scale multiple shocks to the Ghanaian economy. The combined
ramifications for national security could be dire.
Linking climate change with ongoing demographic and agricultural land expansion in
semiarid Ghana highlights the scope and nature of future vulnerability to climatic shocks
and stress. Grazing land and livestock production (which is predominant in semiarid Ghana)
are vulnerable to climate change for three plausible reasons. Primero, decreasing precipitation and
increasing evaporation due to rising temperatures in semiarid regions could potentially reduce
the primary productivity of grazing land and accompanying livestock carrying capacity. Sec-
ond, prolonged droughts could directly lead to the loss of herds. The third reason is a loss of
biomass. Repeated and prolonged drought could decimate the capacity of soil to regenerate
sufficient biomass to sustain growing livestock. This may leave the soil unable to recover even
during wetter periods.
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Beyond climate impact on agriculture, the effect of a changing climate on water bodies in
semiarid areas presents a significant threat to livelihood security. Studies by Alcamo et al.
(2003), Ojo et al. (2004), and Riede et al. (2016) forecast that by the year 2050, rainfall in
West Africa will decline by 10%, prompting major water shortages. They further reason that
el 10% decrease in precipitation would translate into a 17%–20% reduction in runoff, mientras
semiarid regions such as semiarid Ghana may experience a reduction of 50%–30%, respectivamente,
in the surface drainage. With a population growth above 2.7% (Bongaarts & Casterline, 2013;
Yansaneh, 2005), competition and pressure on water resources could double within this same
period in the Sudan Savannah. This could lead to a decline in agricultural production and sig-
nificantly affect food inflation, thus affecting food availability, access, and stability. The northern
savannah belt faces an even more serious dilemma. The region is already experiencing a decline
in soil fertility, declining yields, and environmental desertification. Declining precipitation could
exacerbate these stresses and throw poverty reduction efforts out of gear.
Comparative Analysis of the Three Countries and Key Takeaways
This literature review examined the intersections of climate change and water insecurity in
semiarid Africa using Kenya, Malawi, and Ghana as case studies. In three cases, there is grow-
ing evidence that climate change has negatively impacted water security, and the trend is
projected to continue. The predominance of rainfed agriculture coupled with the fact that
agriculture remains the largest single employer in all three countries particularly make them
sensitive to climate change and variability. The sector accounts for roughly 40% of employment
in Kenya and Ghana and about 80% of employment in Malawi (Wankuru et al., 2019). Enterrar-
secting with high dependence on rainfed agriculture is low human development, which explains
the low autonomous and institutional adaptive capacities.
While the above shows similarities among the three cases, there exist some differences that
must be highlighted. Generally, while Kenya and Ghana are expected to endure increasing
temperatures and a simultaneous decline in rainfall, Malawi is expected to receive a modest
increase in rainfall overall with associated floods. Malawi, sin embargo, is expected to endure the
greatest temperature increase of all three cases, as Table 2 muestra.
Mesa 2 shows both the observed and projected changes of climate change in Kenya,
Malawi, and Ghana from the likelihood of turning into extreme events and the most likely
impact it will cause on water security and livelihoods. In all three countries, we observe that
there has been an increase in temperatures by 1°C from the 1980s to the late 2000s. Sin embargo,
by the end of the century, there is a projected increase in temperature of 3.2°C for Ghana, 4.5°C
for Kenya, and 6°C for Malawi, leaving Kenya and Malawi more susceptible to intense
droughts and floods, heatwaves, and severe droughts than Ghana. También, Kenya and Malawi
will experience more water stress in terms of evaporation losses and unpredictable rainfalls,
aggravating food production and livelihoods more than Ghana. The FAO AQUASTAT
(2022) data in Figure 2 further shows that from 1995 a 2019, the percent of people in
Kenya who have become water stressed has increased from 14.8% a 33.2%, seguido
by Malawi (12.7% a 17.5%) and Ghana, which has moved from 3.7% a 6.3% de personas
who are water stressed.
In semiarid Kenya, climate-induced water insecurity has led to violent armed conflicts
over water resources. Prolonged droughts have plunged millions of people into hunger
necessitating a declaration of a humanitarian crisis over the Horn of Africa1. Violent
1 The Horn of Africa consists of Somalia, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Kenya. Eastern Uganda is sometimes
added.
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Mesa 2.
Summary of the Nature of Climatic Changes in the Three Case Studies and Implications on Water Security
Country
Kenya
Malawi
Ghana
Observed Changes in
Clima
Mean temperature increased
by 1°C from 1960 a 2009
and coincides with an
increased frequency of
extreme droughts and
floods since the mid-
1970s (nicholson, 2014;
Opere, 2013).
The observed increase in
temperatures of 0.9°C
entre 1960 y 2006
led to a decrease in the
freshwater runoff to Lake
Malawi and the Zambezi
River Basin over the
period 1971–2000
(Msowoya et al., 2016;
Vizy et al., 2015).
Ghana has experienced
about a 1oC rise in
temperature and a 20%
overall reduction in
rainfall since 1980
(EPA, 2000; nicholson
et al., 2000).
Projected Changes in
Clima
A projected increase of 4.5°C
in average temperature by
the end of the century
(Gebrechorkos et al.,
2019; nicholson, 2014;
Otieno & Anyah, 2013).
Likelihood of Extreme
Events
There will be an increase in
the frequency and
intensity of droughts and
floods (Barrios et al.,
2010; Hope et al., 2012;
Mogaka et al., 2006;
Sutherland et al., 1991).
Impact on Water and
Related Issues
Rising temperatures
and associated
evapotranspiration rates
will negatively impact
water availability (Barrios
et al., 2010; nicholson,
2014; Otieno & Anyah,
2013).
It is projected that by the
end of the century, el
average temperature will
rise between 5°C and 6°C
(Ngongondo et al., 2011).
Increased heat waves,
Rising temperatures,
droughts, and heavy rains
are becoming more
common (Joshua et al.,
2016; Mariotti et al.,
2013; Mughogho, 2014).
evaporation losses, y
changes in rainfall are
increasingly leading to
water stress (Asfaw et al.,
2015; el blanco &
Stankiewicz, 2006;
Kumambala, 2010).
Projected increase of
average temperature to be
between 2.5°C and 3.2°C
by the end of the century
(Amadou et al., 2018;
Dickinson et al., 2017).
Increased frequency and
length of drought are
esperado (Owusu &
Waylen, 2009; Antwi-
Agyei et al., 2017;
Appiah, 2019).
Water scarcity issues that
will compromise food and
livestock production
(Bongaarts & Casterline,
2013; Yansaneh, 2005).
conflicts over water resources in semiarid Kenya have thrust to the fore the role of water
insecurity in exacerbating existing societal tensions. It also shows how already fragile soci-
eties can further disintegrate under the threat of climate-induced water insecurity. In com-
parison to Ghana and Malawi, climate-induced water insecurity has not led to violent
Cifra 2. Percentage of water-stressed people in Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi from 1990 a 2019. Compiled from FAO AQUASTAT (2022).
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A Review of the Impact of Climate Change in Semiarid Africa
armed conflicts, albeit anecdotal evidence suggests there are growing contestations in
semiarid Ghana for access to and control over water for dry season farming and rearing
of animals.
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
This article reviewed the literature on the nexus of climate change and water security in semi-
arid Africa, focusing on three cases from Kenya, Malawi, and Ghana. It has highlighted the
nature and extent of climatic changes and how these changes intersect with water security
in semiarid Africa. Generally, while climate change is driving water insecurity in semiarid
África, the literature confirms that the preexisting socioeconomic conditions have exacer-
bated their vulnerability. Through a comparative analysis of the three countries, the review
of the literature shows that there are synergies between climate change and social, eco-
logical, political, and economic factors that have often been ignored in the water insecu-
rity and climate change discourse in semiarid areas. There is an urgent need to examine
the contestations arising from multiple and competing uses of surface water and how pol-
icy engagements can bring fair regulation of access outcomes. De nuevo, with climate-induced
water insecurity likely to increase, sufficient knowledge is needed to understand how inter-
nal functions of language, cultura, and politics continue to determine who gets access
rights to water. Sufficient knowledge is also necessary to understand how differences in
social inequalities are reproduced and the ways societies are coping in times of water inse-
curity crises.
This review of the literature highlights the need for capacity building to achieve adaptation
and mitigation processes that equip different stakeholders (including nation-states, negocios,
and local people) in building sustainable and climate-resilient water systems. Smallholder
farmers should be empowered to anticipate and respond robustly to climate change–induced
water insecurity without losing their basic access to water for household and agricultural
necesidades (Adger, 2006; Cutter et al., 2003; dixon & Stringer, 2015). This can be achieved through
agroecology (Woodgate, 2016) and a participatory approach where key issues of land rights,
labor, género, and food security are part of the programming (Bahati et al., 2022) as agrarian
change ensues in larger parts of semiarid Africa.
Finalmente, while climate change may be increasing the severity of natural hazards, el
impact is exacerbated by social, ecológico, political, and economic factors (Yaro et al.,
2015). The vulnerability of the three countries as shown in this article is simultaneously
embedded in the broader socioeconomic challenges that are faced. Climatic changes will
increasingly lead to more water stress and an increase in temperature. This means that the
ability of people in the three countries to adapt and respond robustly to climate extremes
such as droughts and floods is a function of idiosyncratic and wider forces, including the
state of the national economy and the nature of economic activities. De este modo, the vulnerability
of the three countries should not just be viewed from the changes in the climatic variables
(es decir., temperature and precipitation) but from the fact that they are largely rainfed agrarian
economías, albeit with growing diversification in the case of Ghana and Kenya. En esencia,
the impact of climate-induced water insecurity is filtered through other nonclimatic factors,
including demographic dynamics, the nature of livelihood pursuits, water policies, y
other pertinent socioeconomic drivers. Building resilient local systems that use both Indig-
enous and modern methods of farming, water preservation, and conservation to combat
climate-induced water insecurity should be given priority since water insecurity can easily
accelerate social conflict in semiarid areas.
Journal of Climate Resilience and Climate Justice
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A Review of the Impact of Climate Change in Semiarid Africa
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